Okay, you are wondering about the title, ′Florida Primary Results – Analysis on Why Romney Lost′? You are rubbing your eyes, thinking perhaps I did not get enough sleep last night? Sure, if you look at the results, Mitt Romney did win the 2012 Florida Republican primary yesterday. He defeated Newt Gingrich with 46% of the vote to 32% for Newt. So why on Earth do I say that Romney lost? Naturally, I am speaking about November. There still is no certainty that Mitt will even be the nominee after the convention this summer in Tampa. So let us look at the numbers and follow my train of thought, if you dare!

florida primary results

When you look at the parts of Florida where Romney did best, they are all areas where Democrats tend to win in general elections. The exit polls told us two very important things. First, that 41% of those who did vote for Romney think he is not conservative enough. Secondly, 37% of those who did vote for Romney wish there was another candidate to root for in the race. No matter how you slice or spin it, those are not good numbers.

Romney won Florida for one simple reason, he carpet-bombed Gingrich with negative campaign ads. Romney and his Super-PAC aired 60 times, that′s SIXTY, SIX-ZERO, times more 30-second TV ads than Gingrich did. Most came from the Super-PAC, of which 100% were purely negative. About 95% of those directly from Romney′s campaign were negative. Gingrich′s Super-PAC aired just over 200 TV commercials, of which 92% were negative. So 12,000-plus ads versus 200 is the magic formula here.

Barring any major events between now and November, Barack Obama will have no problem winning the State of Florida. Obama will most likely win other key swing states such as Virginia and North Carolina again. Frankly, given Mitt′s awful numbers with Conservatives, I would predict today that Obama winds up winning several, I repeat, SEVERAL Southern States that normally are guaranteed wins for Republicans. Georgia and Arkansas could very well go for Obama. I′m not so sure that Romney will even win states like Texas or even South Carolina right now. Of Romney′s many ′home states′ (Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Michigan), its hard to see Mitt winning any of them in November.

Joe Scarborough of MSNBC′s ″Morning Schmoe′ may be a meathead but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. He pointed out this morning the ′regrettable truth′ that Republicans only win the White House when they can get their Conservative base energized and out in force. That Democrats win when they can lure enough Moderates their way. Last night in Florida, we saw that Romney simply will not energize the Conservative base. The man is simply shameless.

Much ado is being made of the fact that Gingrich did not make the usual concession phone call to Romney last night. Oddly enough, nobody is talking about how Mitt Romney, for now the second time in this primary season, broke protocol and gave his ′victory′ speech before everybody else gave their concession speeches. Last night he did not even wait for one candidate to concede publicly before taking to the airwaves. As they say in England, its just not ′cricket.′

So what happens next? February is a slow month in the campaign. A few caucuses, a couple primaries and just one debate. Romney will do well in winning most of the month′s races. In March, however, a series of important contests could change the dynamics. More Southern states where Gingrich could do well. If Newt can cut a deal with Rick Santorum, they could focus their attention in different states, such as Santorum playing harder in the MidWest where his pro-manufacturing message will play well, boxing Romney in a pincer movement, forced to fight a two-front war. Ron Paul can have the caucuses and states where medical marijuana is legal to play in. The object being now to deny Romney winning the 1144 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Then a Grand Alliance ticket of Gingrich and Santorum, with Ron Paul named to be Secretary of the Treasury, marches into Tampa, Florida at the GOP convention and takes control. Or, should Romney win the nomination outright, will Gingrich wage a Populist 3rd Party challenge?

Fantasy? Probably. But the reality of last night′s Florida primary results confirm is that Mitt Romney will not be the 45th President of the United States. Romney is not going to rally the Conservative base and is in fact losing ground due to his vicious carpet-bombing attacks on Newt Gingrich. Barack Obama will devastate Romney in the general election. Especially if his buddy, Ben Bernanke, can keep fudging the economic numbers enough between now and November to make it look like things are getting better. We already see that going on and barring some meltdown in Europe or other crisis elsewhere, Obama will breeze to an easy victory over the hapless Mitt Romney in the fall. Scholars and historians will look back and see that the election was lost by Mitt Romney last night, even though he technically won the primary, he lost the White House, and probably much more.