With the 2012 New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, the election may resemble the parade at the finale of the movie ″Animal House″, with Newt Gingrich driving the Delta House death-mobile. For his own campaign, Gingrich appears to be reenacting the scuttling of the German pocket-battleship Graf Spee (pictured below) at Montevideo in Uruguay. The latest poll by WMUR shows Mitt Romney well out in front with 44%, followed by Ron Paul with 20%, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich with 8% each and Jon Huntsman Jr. at 7%. Raked by negative ads in Iowa from Romney′s Super-PAC, and from Ron Paul′s campaign, Gingrich fell from leading in the Hawkeye State to a fourth place finish. A new poll from South Carolina also now shows Gingrich has dropped from the lead to tied for second with Santorum at 24%, allowing Romney to have 1st place with 31%.
The situation for Gingrich at this point look very grim. To go after Romney and attack him will have either one of two results. Newt will help Santorum gain numbers in South Carolina at his own expense or show the world that only he has the raw nerve to do battle with Obama in November. Gingrich will have no real impact on the New Hampshire race. Maybe Romney might win with just 39%, but I don′t see Mitt losing much ground there. If anything, Romney should be more concerned this weekend with Paul and Huntsman, because they are more of a threat to him in the Granite State.
Huntsman really needs a strong third place finish in NH, even more so than Santorum. The former Utah Governor is only at 2% in the latest Rasmussen Poll for the Palmetto State, so he probably will not campaign much there if he continues. If Huntsman cannot finish in third, or a close fourth with 10% or more in New Hampshire, then he will most likely bow out after Tuesday.
Santorum′s best strategy for New Hampshire is to focus more on Ron Paul as far as being negative goes. Rick should leave Romney alone and let Newt and Jon go after him. Then Santorum can focus more on South Carolina where he may get the Religious-Right rallying around him, which would give him a probable victory and help in Florida.
But for Newt Gingrich, New Hampshire is a death ride to no where. He′ll be lucky to finish in fourth place and even luckier to earn 10% or more of the vote. His only option for now is to put his campaign on ramming speed and try to bloody Romney enough to prevent him from winning in the later primaries in the South. All Romney needs is one victory below the Mason-Dixon line to wrap things up early by Super Tuesday in March. Florida is probably his best chance to do just that. But if Newt can damage Mitt enough this coming week, then the battle may on well into April.
January 6th, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Good article!
January 6th, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Over? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Was it over when people started talking about my three wives? Nothing is over until I decide it is!– Newt Gingrich
January 6th, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Yes, what a great movie! A good deal of what success I had as a B-2-B salesman was due in large part to my committing to memory “Animal House”, “Airplane” and “Caddyshack”, especially “Caddyshack.” Any knowledge of Monty Python was a bonus.
January 6th, 2012 at 5:11 pm
…and don’t call me Shirley!
January 6th, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Death Cab For Newty
January 6th, 2012 at 10:40 pm
“Santorum” introduced a bill to force US citizens to buy health insurance in same individual mandate format as Romney and Gingrich did.
http://articles.mcall.com/1994-05-02/news/2979474_1_cooper-grandy-health-reform-employees-premiums/2
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also…
How disastrous was Santorum’s endorsement of Specter? Can you say ‘Obamacare’?
http://legalinsurrection.com/2011/12/how-disastrous-was-santorums-endorsement-of-specter-can-you-say-obamacare/
January 6th, 2012 at 10:40 pm
test
January 6th, 2012 at 10:40 pm
“Santorum” introduced a bill to force US citizens to buy health insurance in same individual mandate format as Romney and Gingrich did.
http://articles.mcall.com/1994-05-02/news/2979474_1_cooper-grandy-health-reform-employees-premiums/2
January 6th, 2012 at 10:41 pm
also…How disastrous was Santorum’s endorsement of Specter? Can you say ‘Obamacare’?
http://legalinsurrection.com/2011/12/how-disastrous-was-santorums-endorsement-of-specter-can-you-say-obamacare/
January 7th, 2012 at 7:14 am
Between the GOP Establishment shoving Romney down our throats, and this new wave anti-Catholic rhetoric coming from folks like Ann Coulter, what is a Catholic Conservative to do?
The Tea Party needs to form a 3rd Party. Too late to do anything now, but the time for thinking about the 2014 mid-terms is drawing near. Organize-Organize-Organize!
January 7th, 2012 at 7:16 am
Awl, Newty needs a ride in the Cash Cab. He’d be pretty good at that with his enormous brain.
January 7th, 2012 at 9:18 am
Emerica,
Pat Toomey would have lost in the general election in 2004 so I think that argument against Santorum doesn’t hold up.
January 7th, 2012 at 9:31 am
This ‘Either-Or’ BS with the two party system has run it’s course.
Both the Dems and the Pubs have abused the system to the Max. They started looting the Social Security funding, the day it was passed.
Something stinks when a guy can spend just a couple of terms in the House and be worth a million or more when he leaves.
The idea that people like Chris Dodd or Bawney Fwank can get caught with their paws in the cookie jar and just say, ‘I Quit, I Don’t Want to Play Any More’, and stroll into the sunset with a pile of cash and a cushy future, is sickening. These bastards should be investigated and prosecuted.
If the Unions and their allies on the Welfare Line don’t want to move on, then we will have to settle it in the street. It is inevitable and we may as well get it over. These parasite leaches are bleeding America dry. Let’s see just who is more determined to get their way.
Spring is in the Air. Taxpayer Spring doesn’t sound as sexy as Prague Spring, but What Ta Hell, Winter Of Our Discontent is gettin’ old.
January 7th, 2012 at 9:33 am
‘Submit Comment’ and POOF !
Ta Hell Wid It. I Ain’t Typin’ It Over.
January 7th, 2012 at 11:01 am
Santorum is known for attending mega Pastor Hagee’s Christian Zionist conferences yearly with Lieberman so it’s no surprise that he has radical views but..
Santorum: West Bank Residents All ‘Israeli,’ No Such Thing As Palestinian
God Ron Paul!