Iowa may be a harbinger for the strength of different types of Republican voters in the remaining primaries or caucus states. Basically, there appear to be four kinds of Republicans; those who are establishment and generally favor Romney, those who are anti-Romney but don’t expect a lot of social conservative enthusiasm (what I would term Rush-Hannity Republicans), libertarians (who have long decided that Ron Paul is their favorite) and social conservatives.
Among Republicans across the nation as a whole, the three types, other than libertarians, are evenly balanced. But among Iowans who intend to cast their votes in the caucus, social conservatives have managed to recently dominate. In 2008, Huckabee won pretty convincingly with over 1/3 of the votes cast. But so far this cycle, their support has been split between Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum. Recently, though, Santorum has consolidated his support.
Santorum has campaigned in the state for the last year, holding over 300 events. He has built up an extensive organization, claiming to have over 1,000 people who would speak for him at various caucuses in the state. Recently, two of the prominent leaders of Family Leader, a social conservative group with much support throughout the state, Chuck Hurley and Bob Vander Plaats released a statement that they were supporting Santorum since he, more than any other candidate, has linked the national economy to family issues.
Recent polls in the state have shown each of the three social conservatives hovering with about 10% suppor. But with this recent set of endorsements, Santorum may receive the lion’s share of the votes. Then, if he does handily defeat Bachmann, she will likely withdraw from the nomination fight shortly thereafter. In itself, this could well enable Santorum to be victorious in South Carolina and Florida, unless Romney can move his support out of the 25% range.
Could Santorum win the nomination, if everything broke right for him? Absolutely. It is difficult for any candidate, especially Mitt, to directly attack him since they could alienate a significant portion of their base. But if he succeeds in Iowa, he could be more than a gadfly in the future nomination events.
December 27th, 2011 at 11:34 am
Hard to imagine, but on the other hand nobody who wins Iowa goes on to win the nomination. My recollection is Rick was a 1-term only Senator who lost his reelection bid. Don’t know what he has ever managed that makes him think he is qualified to be president.
December 27th, 2011 at 11:53 am
well, mccain, nobody except for bush2, dole, and bush1. I think that iowa is at least as predictive as new hampshire.
December 27th, 2011 at 12:11 pm
You have a technical point for sure, but… Bush I was unopposed in 1992. He actually lost Iowa in 1988. Likewise, Bush II was unopposed in 2004. He won Iowa in 2000 which makes him one of two exceptions in the last 30 years when we ignore unopposed elections. Iowa is actually batting just 2 for 5 during this time but maybe New Hampshire is just as bad.
Nominee Ronald Reagan lost Iowa in 1980!
Nominee George Bush I was 3rd in Iowa in 1988.
Nominee Bob Dole won Iowa in 1996 (barely) with Romney-like 26%.
Nominee Bush II won Iowa in 2000.
Nominee John McCain was 4th in Iowa in 2008.
All the other years had uncontested elections.
December 27th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
(a little research says New Hampshire is 3 for 5. Dole lost in 1996 — remember Pat Buchanan! — and Bush lost in 2000)
December 27th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
You are wrong.
There is only one kind of Republican.
December 27th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Basically, there appear to be four kinds of Republicans; those who are establishment and generally favor Romney,
Basically, there appear to be four kinds of Republicans; those who
are establishmentwant any chance to win the general election and generally favor Romney,FIFY
December 27th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Again, we get back to primary ballots. Santorum wasn’t able to get himself on many of them. His winning Iowa won’t matter if he’s not even on the ballot in many states.
December 27th, 2011 at 3:04 pm
A late surge by Santorum would not be unexpected, but I do not see him finishing any better than 4th.
December 28th, 2011 at 1:53 am
Please be careful– I read “A late surge by Santorum” as “A late surge of santorum” and nearly lost my lunch.
December 28th, 2011 at 1:53 am
(You know, santorum. The frothy mixture.)
December 28th, 2011 at 10:11 am
In an alternate universe, Santorum won the Trump debate and thus won Trump’s endorsement.
December 28th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Some poll has Santorum in 3rd place now in Iowa.