Well the drive-by-media types, such as PMS/NBC, seemed quite happy with the loss of 4,000 W-2 jobs, according to Friday’s Unemployment report. They pronounced the economy heading to recession. I thought we already had the worst economy ever since Hoover. So what has changed?

I always say that one month’s numbers do not make a trend. This number will be adjusted twice (in October and November), in addition to benchmark revisions in later years. Even if this number is negative, one can not overlook the 47 straight months of positive job growth, which is a streak longer than any others in ten years. Considering the age of the economic expansion – having a negative number would not be suprising.

In 2000, the job market had three months of negative numbers. In fact, in May of 2000, the initial report suggested job loss of 116,000 (it was finally adjusted to -42,000). Did CNN tell you that the economy was heading to recession? Of course not, they said everything was fine even though GDP and the stock market were falling.

I see no recession on the horizon. The economic growth in the last quarter was 4.0%; the unemployment rate is 4.6%; and inflation according to Federal Reserve is 1.9%. Other indexes show continued growth in the manufacturing and service industries (rates above 50).

Watch out for these media types – who simply can not report or fail to provide complete information. They do the same thing about housing – attributing the concerns in the subprime mortgage market to the entire “real estate market being weak.” They overlook that 98% of the population is paying its mortgages timely. In addition, in a big shock, according to another recent government study of 300 major metro markets, prices have gone up 3% year over year. OVer two thirds of these markets experienced increasing prices while one third experienced declining prices. They forget to tell you that all real estate markets are local.