While not quite a hurricane yet, Tropical Storm Emily has strengthened and is on the move again after stalling about 200 miles from Puerto Rico. With sustained wind speeds of 50 MPH, Emily stands a good chance of developing into a hurricane as it approaches Florida from the Atlantic. As of 5pm EDT, Emily was about 185 miles South-Southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, traveling 12 MPH in a West by Northwest direction. Warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti based on Emily’s storm path. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued to the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands should Emily’s storm track alter.
Early storm tracks of Tropical Storm Emily have her skirting the Florida coast, then most likely deflecting Northeast back out into the Atlantic. However, these are very advanced models and there is plenty of room for errors and changes at this point. Some models have Emily tracking more Southward and entering the Gulf of Mexico. So at this point, anyone′s guess could prove correct. The next three days should firm up what Emily will wind up doing.
Meanwhile, Puerto Rico and other islands in Emily′s path need to prepare for high winds and plenty of rain. Within the next 24 hours, they could get six to ten inches of rain or more as Emily bares down. A ridge of high pressure seems to be steering Emily more Westward, and may keep the storm disorganized, preventing her from becoming a hurricane.
So while not yet a hurricane, Tropical Storm Emily is beginning to threaten islands in the Western Atlantic with significant populations. Warnings and watches have been issued as Emily storm path moves in a NNW direction at 12 MPH, bearing down on Puerto Rico. Other surrounding islands in the region could also feel the effects of her 50 MPH sustained winds. It may be another 48 to 72 hours before the Emily storm track is determined as to how it may effect the east coast of Florida.