The Democratic Party lost most of their majority in last year’s Senate elections, dropping to 53 seats. The question now is whether the Republicans will take over the majority in 2012. In order for this to occur, the GOP must take over 4 seats, if Obama wins re-election, or 3 seats, if the Republicans take the presidency. As we know, this is because the Vice President casts a tie breaking vote.
According to one analyst, Larry Sabato, who has made a name for himself predicting such things, the Republicans right now are slightly favored to win control of this body. His analysis begins by saying that one of the seats is gone, with North Dakota‘s Kent Conrad retiring. At least three other seats (Nebraska, Montana, and Missouri) are expected to flip from Democratic to Republican. Sabato’s analysis is based on the premise that in each of these three states, Obama is expected to lose. Since, in presidential election years, turnout invariably increases, the party that wins the state’s electoral votes usually has an advantage in the lower elections.
Other Democratic seats that the Republicans are expected to have a decent chance to win include Virginia, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Depending on economic conditions next spring, Republicans could also defeat the Democratic incumbents in a number of other states. Specifically, Sabato mentions Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, West Virginia, and Hawaii as seats that could potentially be picked up. At the same time, the Democrats are only expected to provide a realistic challenge to two sitting Republicans, Brown in Massachusetts and Heller in Nevada.
We’ll start our state-by-state discussions and analyses of the Senate races in July. Next year’s elections should be pretty exciting, with both the Senate and the House up for grabs, and the Presidential contest taking up most of the national attention.









June 23rd, 2011 at 12:33 pm
This is assuming that no Democrats take over some seats that now belong to Republicans?
The demographics in a presidential year, especially with Obama on the ticket, will not be the same as the mid-terms. They will most certainly skew left.
June 23rd, 2011 at 12:59 pm
buzz,
Please re-read the last sentence in the penultimate paragraph.
June 23rd, 2011 at 1:56 pm
What demographics are buzzbee considering? The 16% chronically unemployed???
June 23rd, 2011 at 5:04 pm
I need an answer here.
Claire McCaskill D-MO is probably going to get her clock cleaned in 2012 and I’m willing to do the legwork to see that it happens.
Here’s my question:
Is there a limit I can spend when campaigning against a candidate rather than for one???
June 23rd, 2011 at 5:13 pm
“Is there a limit I can spend when campaigning against a candidate rather than for one???”
No, but I wouldnt talk on line about it anymore
June 23rd, 2011 at 5:39 pm
“No, but I wouldnt talk on line about it anymore”
That’s the attitude that got you Neil Abercrombie!!!
June 23rd, 2011 at 6:09 pm
yeah, micky. You’re way to shy about expressing your beliefs.
June 23rd, 2011 at 6:10 pm
too, not to, obviously.
June 23rd, 2011 at 6:10 pm
Actually I’m record here tellin everyone that he smoked a joint with a 16 year old Micky and his dad.
True story
I figured I could start some dirt on him but the local moonbat rag here would never run with it.
I think he remembers me because about 5 years ago a liberal blogger and I wanted to put together and aid program for African kids.
I E mailed him repeatedly reminding him of who my dad was and the time we spent together in his district eating dinner and hangin out at my house.
He probably realized that the pot story was one he’d never want surfacing in the future.
Was no big deal,he was our dist. rep and my dads theme park needed a liquor license so we invited him over a couple times to schmooze him with dinner. After dinner we sat around the Bose 901s listening to Blck Sabbath, Santana, smoked a couple hooters.
Today it would be a very unhealthy story for Neil if it got out.
My fathers dead, my mom loves Abercrombie so that leaves me as the only credible witness.
Too bad, maybe Breitbart would hire me
June 23rd, 2011 at 6:22 pm
if not breitbart, what about james o’keefe?
June 23rd, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Theres draw backs to livin in paradise, 3000 miles away from all the action.
You guts get to go to the rally’s and town halls
No one ever comes here except for Obama.
Dont buy that bullsht in his book that he was a victim of racism here in Hawaii. Its the white guy whos the minority. Especially in the 60-70s where as long as you weren’t white you were cool. Except at Punahou. Punahou is nothing but a bunch of societies upper echelon snotty elite liberal kids, offspring of college professors where it was hip for whites and Asians to hang out with the black guy as a status symbol of their tolerant progressiveness.
At least you guys, Werner, Andy, McCain and a few others, you at least get whithin hollering distance.
June 23rd, 2011 at 6:55 pm
Correction
“You ‘guys’ get to go to the rallys…”