According to an article by Bill Kristol in the Weekly Standard, Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York City, plans to enter the 2012 Republican Presidential race soon. This comes as a surprise to many since there hasn’t seemed to be a groundswell of support calling for this to occur.

467px Rudy Giuliani

Kristol writes that Giuliani has a theory of how he can win the nomination. In 2008, as we recall, Rudy decided that his main early target was Florida. He thought that, if he won in the Sunshine State, he could use his victory to propel him to victories on the Super Tuesday primaries. So, while the other candidates campaigned in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, Rudy traveled throughout Florida. It is unknown if this tactic would have worked, since Giuliani finished third, behind McCain and Romney, with 15% of the primary vote in the January 29th election.

Rudy has decided to employ a similar strategy in the 2012 contest. But, instead of waiting until the Florida primary, he will campaign exclusively in New Hampshire. He figures that if he defeats Romney there, he will burst Mitt’s balloon. Then, the nomination will be between him and whichever conservative candidates are still contesting the nomination. He then posits that he will win the winner-take-all states in California, New York, and New Jersey.

Rudy believes that he has two assets that will work toward his victory. First, when he took over as the Mayor of NYC in 1993, it was in a fiscal, emotional and moral morass following the disastrous tenure of David Dinkins. He was able to turn these problems around. Secondly, he still has the 9/11 card which, as long as we are at war, gives him foreign policy credentials than any other of the potential nominees.

Of course, he maintains many of the same weaknesses that he had in the last cycle. He would be a difficult choice for social conservatives to vote for. He holds positions on social issues that are antithetical to their core beliefs. He tends to be abrasive and brusque while campaigning. It is difficult to imagine that he has much of a campaign network built.