Intrade.com has been updating its odds on who the Republican Presidential nominee will be next year. Here are the latest odds that are given; in parenthesis is the change from the last time we published this, about a month ago.
The firm also has provided the probability that currently, the over-under for a Republican to be elected against Obama next year is 39.4%. Under a formula that I put together in 2008, this corresponds to the Republican candidate receiving 46.7% of the popular vote against him.
The new Intrade odds show the following:
Romney 24.7% (-.7%)
Pawlenty 16.3% (-2.6%)
Daniels 10.5% (+1.7%)
Huckabee 8.3% (+1.6%)
Trump 6.4% (+6.4%)
Bachmann 6.4% (+1.7%)
Huntsman 5.9% (+2.0%)
Palin 5.3% (-1.6%)
Ron Paul 3.0% (+1.4%)
Gingrich 2.7% (-1.8%)
Obviously, there has been an upsurge in support for Trump. I’m not going to comment on that other than wondering why we don’t let these people into my biweekly poker game. Those who have seen increases in support include Daniels (who seems to be the preferred inside-the-beltway contender if Romney fades and Huckabee, who does much worse in this setting than when looking at actual current support, which probably reflects how much he is detested by the CFG crowd. Bachmann appears to have gotten an emotional hold on many of Palin’s supporters. Huntsman has seen his support climb as has Ron Paul. I’m clueless for why either of these two guys have seen increased support from bettors.
For those showing a decline, the three who have seen their support deteriorate the most are Pawlenty, Gingrich, and Palin. Palin’s support, as I said earlier, seems to have moved to Bachmann. Gingrich’s support seems to have cratered as his behavior as a nattering nabob of negativism probably ill-serves him in a Presidential campaign. Pawlenty may have to leave the race soon unless he can provide voters with some rationale for choosing him.
May 1st, 2011 at 9:20 am
Did anyone see the solid smackdowns from Obama and Seth Meyers? Trump didn’t look happy.
Ouch.
May 1st, 2011 at 9:42 am
trump is one of the most obviously visible narcissists on tv and cannot tolerate anyone speaking up to him or questioning his “thing”. I think hes been very successful as a front man, song and dance man, and media personality, but its all based on the myth that he has some magic inner power. Power of illusion I say. A lot has surfaced about his financial “successes” and they really just raise more questions. I would say he’s a great poker player up to a point, but now a very hollow suit is showing. And yes I do believe he is a demagogue and panders to people’s baser natures while putting up an illusion that greatness is only a growl away. Obama is a lot smarter than trumph, and I think trumph stepped out of his carefully controlled media element. One look at the man and you can see he doesn’t have the energy for the presidency anyhow. Would you really want this guy as head of state, or the state department? He’s simply shamelessly feeding red meat to the carnavoirs among us in a fairly haphazar matter. Too many grudges, not enough vision.
May 1st, 2011 at 9:56 am
“trump is one of the most obviously visible narcissists on tv and cannot tolerate anyone speaking up to him or questioning his “thing”. ”
Thats bullsht.
Krauthammer blasted Trump 6 ways to Sunday and the two of them still had a very congenial gentleman like conversation.
I’m no fan of Trump but if your going to pretend like you know whats going on you need to do a better job.
Besides, that quote I just took from you could just as easily be applied to Obama.
“Obama is a lot smarter than trumph,”
Not really, everyone has their failures and successes.
Trumps successes far outweigh Barrys in the sense the man does know how to conduct business and get results in a far more cost effective and expeditious manner.
Trump, if anything, has succeeded in puttin the fire under the right that needs to be there as motivational without a bunch of vacant platitudes, “hope” “change’ and all that bullsht means nothing.
But telling the Chinese “look motherfcker, I’m gonna tax you 25%”, “our leaders are stupid stupid people”…
is what people want to hear, and how real people think.
Although, in my opinion, he went on that rant as a conscious deliberate means to bail out of the race knowing he’ll never win anyway based on his past democratic affiliations.
He energized and gave the right a sense of the passion they should be looking for in a leader.
Job well don Donald
May 1st, 2011 at 10:05 am
“Did anyone see the solid smackdowns from Obama and Seth Meyers? Trump didn’t look happy.’
Scripted, rehearsed, teleprompted,…
BFD
He should brought in Evan Sayet instead of that limp dick Seth
http://evansayet.com/
May 1st, 2011 at 11:29 am
I am not familiar with seth meyers work.
May 1st, 2011 at 11:36 am
I couldn’t watch the trump tv show anymore after seeing a couple of early episodes, it was just so gnarly capitalistic and overbearing with his pit bull employees sitting at his sides acting all so important, and then sending these extraverted young models down to sell brownies and party hats on columbus circle or whatever as a test of their business acumen just didn’t ring right. then in the end they mostly get fired anyways, and in such nice suits with rollon luggage. Then the survivors got to snipe at each other, have complete emotional breakdowns, and the donald looked puffy and not like someone I would ever work for. I wonder if he ever waited tables in school?
May 1st, 2011 at 12:14 pm
I am not familiar with seth meyers work.
He’s the head writer on Saturday Night Live, and has been their news segment host for a while.
Here’s his speech. Watch Trump’s brains boil. (Luckily the rug is fireproof.)
He had been mocked by Obama previously. (Here’s the President’s speech.)
May 1st, 2011 at 12:27 pm
Brian-
I don’t watch Trump’s show but do know the “winner” each week donates money to their favorite charity.
Please don’t tell me you are against “celebritys” donating money to St Judes? American Heart?
Look for the good and ignore the fluff and crap.
Like you,I’ve never heard of Seth Myers.
May 1st, 2011 at 1:00 pm
I was a waitress at age 16
BFD
May 1st, 2011 at 1:03 pm
oh that is new. well when the show first started the winner got a high profile startar job at one of trumps newly developed properties under a mentor high in the organization. then they would cameo him for the others to aspire to. They seem to pick the most promising and charismatic candidate, then the show got a whole lot more competitive on a superficial level.
May 1st, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Oh, I started as a dishwasher in a small nice restaurant owned by a family and worked there at 16 and was pretty good during the rushes as I never got seriously backed up. the chef owner use to make us all a plate at the end of the meal time. But the waitresses never tipped us back then, then I learned that bus boy’s got tipped a 10% tithe and did that at another place run by the Italians.
May 1st, 2011 at 1:52 pm
Obama smackdown, ‘Me’???
More like a f@rt from a wet noodle.
May 1st, 2011 at 4:16 pm
“then I learned that bus boy’s got tipped a 10% tithe and did that at another place run by the Italians.”
Yeah. ya socialist moron, as a dishwasher you’re not entitled to tips rendered for service staff.
Thats why the back of the house gets paid in decent wages and the wait staff including busboys, runners etc get minimum wage and rely on their tips.
My busboys got at least 20%, barkeep/c0cktail waitress 10-15%, Maite D`etc…
Dishwasher maybe got a beer outta me sometimes
May 1st, 2011 at 4:50 pm
I remember the first time we went to paris, I tipped the waiter 15% or so and left it on the table. He chased us down the street to yell at me…since I only speak pigeon french, I thought he was mad because I didn’t tip enough. Instead, he handed me back everything except one bill and told me that that was enough.
May 1st, 2011 at 6:23 pm
Obama and our Military and Intelligence forces carred out a promise in the past few days, that is being released tonight to the surprise of many. No one gave up for 10 long years.
May 1st, 2011 at 6:31 pm
“Obama and our Military and Intelligence forces carred out a promise in the past few days, that is being released tonight to the surprise of many. No one gave up for 10 long years.”
Wise up ass hole.
Bush initiated this, so give them ‘both’ credit would you ?
May 1st, 2011 at 6:41 pm
Just another fight between muslims.
May 1st, 2011 at 6:56 pm
Brian;
“No one gave up for 10 long years.”
More bullsht.
Half you moonbats were ready to pack it up once Barry got into office
May 1st, 2011 at 7:06 pm
We should do what his buddies would do.
Put his stiff on a piece of plywood and march it thru the streets of NYC then throw the fcker off the top of the Freedom Tower.
SPLAT !
May 1st, 2011 at 7:10 pm
Can we just take the politics out of this for a few short moments and congratulate our heroic troops, former President Bush and President Obama for this landmark victory. It was a collective effort between many, and thank God this evil man has been wiped from this planet.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:26 pm
maybe so Snow Crash, but Obama showed good courage to roll the dice and authorize US forces to go into Paki and get the guy whatever the paki’s say. He isn’t weak like some say. Just very quietly relentless against our enemies. Obama does deserve special credit here for completing the job.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:27 pm
No sht Snow.
But I had to put Brian on that track.
This is the result of 3 administrations accumulative efforts and good ole American balls.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:29 pm
remember bush took key forces involved in hunting obama to send to Iraq, thats a fact, and that may well have prolonged all of this a bunch of years. He started setting up a framework and the drone program but then broke its momentum at a key time. Plus he didn’t put our troops in any real numbers behind tora bora and thought paying warlords would do the job, which was incredibly naive. Again it probably prolonged this war by years.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:31 pm
Without a doubt, Obama got the focus back on what we needed to do to get the job done and upped the pressure. More drone missions, more intelligence gathering, more trying to convince the paki’s with petreas and panetta making trips over to there. All a quiet in many ways but vigourous effort.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:32 pm
You know what Brian.
If I were an ass hole like I might say that Obama never would of launched this war in the first place and that it never would of happened without Bush
But I’m at least a fairly ‘fair’
man, unlike you.
Theres no one special in this fight except the guys who died lookin for him.
Sure as hell not any president…you incredible fckin moron
May 1st, 2011 at 7:34 pm
don’t be so stingy, for a change, maybe you will have a good day then and stop taking it out on the rest of us normal people.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:39 pm
“remember bush took key forces involved in hunting obama to send to Iraq”
Okay, thats it. I tried being fair with you but your ideologically bigoted ass gives me little choice.
Clinton fckin blew it after allowing Bin Laden to attack and kill hundreds of Americans.
Bush was the only president in US history to actually have the balls to go after these ass holes and kill more of them than anyone ever all the while not allowing one attack on American soil…
until your fckin loser Barry came along.
Rejoice and share the glory ass hole or I’ll open up a can of ass whup on you like you’ve never seen.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:42 pm
Micky = one miserable, pathetic, angry being. OBL is dead and all he wants to do is piss and moan. What a blow hard.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:43 pm
“don’t be so stingy, for a change, maybe you will have a good day then and stop taking it out on the rest of us normal people.”
No one is listening to you ass hole.
And if they are they’re loathing your bullsht right now.
I and others have given credit all around where due.
You on the other hand are practically suckin Barrys dick with no acknowledgement to the accumulated effort.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:45 pm
I agree Mick. You know my position and I know yours, politically, but credit should be given where credit is due. This isn’t a pure Obama thing, this is years of accumulated effort. This man needed to go.
Our troops kick ass.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:45 pm
@ Neuter
Hey ass hole.
Try and read the thread.
I’m the one giving credit all around taking the same position with and agreeing with Snow who is a liberal
Everyone deserves kudos.
But not in Brians Obama dick suckin world.
Got it ?
May 1st, 2011 at 7:48 pm
Your not honest about anything micky, just a psycobabble spin high school drop out who talks gutter trash to try and intimidate others. You know a lot less than you think and are as dishonest a blogger as I have ever seen here. And to add to your crazyness you want to micromanage what people who disagree with you even say, which makes no sense. Cause your plain wrong. And wrong headed. and so negative. And to add to the fun your the most judgemental person on this board, about everything. You ruin the right of others to just come and say something without constantly being attacked. And you take pride in that just like a bratty 15 year old, or being an adult a willful person with malicous intent. sounds criminal to me. your just plain toxic. Go bother soemeone else. Your sense reality is not healthy for anyone so why bully people to have to accept it? That is the epitome criminal behavior. I know what you are.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:52 pm
Brian, normally just ignore your posts, but please for the love of God STFU. Get over yourself for a moment and enjoy this victory.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:54 pm
well snow you may not know but micky attacks anything I say with cursing and bullying for a long time now and I have told him to keep it in his pants. The fact is Obama does deserve some real credit here, but I guess nobody is going to give him any and that is so wrong. He could have just done nothing and gotten away with it but chose to go after him in paki even with all the political troubles between our two countries.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:55 pm
micky your going to h double hockey sticks.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:56 pm
see Micky is always making rappe threats of the above sort. He is really twisted actually. Naturally I should respond or all of you will think its like legal to rappe people as morals are very fast and loose in here. I am actually doing a public service.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:01 pm
If I were standing next to you I’d beat the living snot out of you.
No one threatened to rape you, you incredible fckin liar.
Were done, you’re ruining this for me or anyone anymore.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:03 pm
there you go micky, more criminal behavior threats. that is you at the core. you are dishonest, a bully, and plain wrong. You have no respect for boundries or you wouldn’t even be talking like that. that is criminality.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:08 pm
micky you surely did say f you know what in caps with periods after each letter twice to me, but apparently someone or somehow you got it removed from this site in the past minutes. In my world that means you are threatening to rappe someone. Nobody says that to someone as just a curse word. Your really playing dirty here. and if someone is helping you, shame on them.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:13 pm
there is definitely a nexus between some elements of the right wing, or whatever this is, and criminality, and tonight it definitely reared its ugly head in the open. Now its hiding again. You guys are really contaminated and apparently lack the morals to care.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:16 pm
Brian, you’re f`d up with or without my help.
Yeah, Arriba took it down, but not at my request.
It was a display of disgust, and you know it.
trust me, this dude wants nothing to do with you in any sexual context.
Dont flatter yourself.
Now STFU, you’re ruining the party
May 1st, 2011 at 8:17 pm
on this thread your yelling threats at me and on another thread your talking so sensitive and safe, typing both at the same time pretty much. that is what psychopathology is all about, the wide range of feigned emotions, because no normal person can go from yelling at someone to showing their sensitive side to others so quickly. The minds defenses block that in normals as it gears up for the fight or flight state. Yeah, your truly a good example. Don’t call me a liar anymore, go review the new osama thread, it was there a minute ago. You got us coming and going. I see that now, clearly.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:20 pm
if you will recall I gave a simple praise statement to Obama and our forces over there and you tried to turn it into a problem with your usual judgemental crapola. Well you got your problem alright. Maybe that is fuel to you. but why such a weird source for feul?
May 1st, 2011 at 8:20 pm
Please stop. This is a night of joy for our nation that we can all share in together. Thank you.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:21 pm
“on this thread your yelling threats at me and on another thread your talking so sensitive and safe, ”
yeah, because you’re not there…
DUH!!!!
May 1st, 2011 at 8:25 pm
I agree Arriba, and all I did was make a simple short post early in the night, the first one, praising the obviously diligent work our country did and has been doing possibly when many thought we(obama) had given up. Then micky started his auto attacks like crazy and I just had enough of it. A person should be able to blog on a few things here without everything being such a drama.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:33 pm
no good deed goes unpunished on right pundits. Now why is that?