Intrade.com has been updating its odds on who the Republican Presidential nominee will be next year. Here are the latest odds that are given; in parenthesis is the change from the last time we published this, about a month ago.
The firm also has provided the probability that currently, the over-under for a Republican to be elected against Obama next year is 39.4%. Under a formula that I put together in 2008, this corresponds to the Republican candidate receiving 46.7% of the popular vote against him.
The new Intrade odds show the following:
Romney 24.7% (-.7%)
Pawlenty 16.3% (-2.6%)
Daniels 10.5% (+1.7%)
Huckabee 8.3% (+1.6%)
Trump 6.4% (+6.4%)
Bachmann 6.4% (+1.7%)
Huntsman 5.9% (+2.0%)
Palin 5.3% (-1.6%)
Ron Paul 3.0% (+1.4%)
Gingrich 2.7% (-1.8%)
Obviously, there has been an upsurge in support for Trump. I’m not going to comment on that other than wondering why we don’t let these people into my biweekly poker game. Those who have seen increases in support include Daniels (who seems to be the preferred inside-the-beltway contender if Romney fades and Huckabee, who does much worse in this setting than when looking at actual current support, which probably reflects how much he is detested by the CFG crowd. Bachmann appears to have gotten an emotional hold on many of Palin’s supporters. Huntsman has seen his support climb as has Ron Paul. I’m clueless for why either of these two guys have seen increased support from bettors.
For those showing a decline, the three who have seen their support deteriorate the most are Pawlenty, Gingrich, and Palin. Palin’s support, as I said earlier, seems to have moved to Bachmann. Gingrich’s support seems to have cratered as his behavior as a nattering nabob of negativism probably ill-serves him in a Presidential campaign. Pawlenty may have to leave the race soon unless he can provide voters with some rationale for choosing him.