Intrade.com has been updating its odds on who the Republican Presidential nominee will be next year. Here are the latest odds that are given; in parenthesis is the change from the last time we published this, about a month ago.
The firm also has provided the probability that currently, the over-under for a Republican to be elected against Obama next year is 39.4%. Under a formula that I put together in 2008, this corresponds to the Republican candidate receiving 46.7% of the popular vote against him.
The new Intrade odds show the following:
Romney 24.7% (-.7%)
Pawlenty 16.3% (-2.6%)
Daniels 10.5% (+1.7%)
Huckabee 8.3% (+1.6%)
Trump 6.4% (+6.4%)
Bachmann 6.4% (+1.7%)
Huntsman 5.9% (+2.0%)
Palin 5.3% (-1.6%)
Ron Paul 3.0% (+1.4%)
Gingrich 2.7% (-1.8%)
Obviously, there has been an upsurge in support for Trump. I’m not going to comment on that other than wondering why we don’t let these people into my biweekly poker game. Those who have seen increases in support include Daniels (who seems to be the preferred inside-the-beltway contender if Romney fades and Huckabee, who does much worse in this setting than when looking at actual current support, which probably reflects how much he is detested by the CFG crowd. Bachmann appears to have gotten an emotional hold on many of Palin’s supporters. Huntsman has seen his support climb as has Ron Paul. I’m clueless for why either of these two guys have seen increased support from bettors.
For those showing a decline, the three who have seen their support deteriorate the most are Pawlenty, Gingrich, and Palin. Palin’s support, as I said earlier, seems to have moved to Bachmann. Gingrich’s support seems to have cratered as his behavior as a nattering nabob of negativism probably ill-serves him in a Presidential campaign. Pawlenty may have to leave the race soon unless he can provide voters with some rationale for choosing him.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:34 pm
don’t be so stingy, for a change, maybe you will have a good day then and stop taking it out on the rest of us normal people.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:39 pm
“remember bush took key forces involved in hunting obama to send to Iraq”
Okay, thats it. I tried being fair with you but your ideologically bigoted ass gives me little choice.
Clinton fckin blew it after allowing Bin Laden to attack and kill hundreds of Americans.
Bush was the only president in US history to actually have the balls to go after these ass holes and kill more of them than anyone ever all the while not allowing one attack on American soil…
until your fckin loser Barry came along.
Rejoice and share the glory ass hole or I’ll open up a can of ass whup on you like you’ve never seen.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:42 pm
Micky = one miserable, pathetic, angry being. OBL is dead and all he wants to do is piss and moan. What a blow hard.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:43 pm
“don’t be so stingy, for a change, maybe you will have a good day then and stop taking it out on the rest of us normal people.”
No one is listening to you ass hole.
And if they are they’re loathing your bullsht right now.
I and others have given credit all around where due.
You on the other hand are practically suckin Barrys dick with no acknowledgement to the accumulated effort.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:45 pm
I agree Mick. You know my position and I know yours, politically, but credit should be given where credit is due. This isn’t a pure Obama thing, this is years of accumulated effort. This man needed to go.
Our troops kick ass.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:45 pm
@ Neuter
Hey ass hole.
Try and read the thread.
I’m the one giving credit all around taking the same position with and agreeing with Snow who is a liberal
Everyone deserves kudos.
But not in Brians Obama dick suckin world.
Got it ?
May 1st, 2011 at 7:48 pm
Your not honest about anything micky, just a psycobabble spin high school drop out who talks gutter trash to try and intimidate others. You know a lot less than you think and are as dishonest a blogger as I have ever seen here. And to add to your crazyness you want to micromanage what people who disagree with you even say, which makes no sense. Cause your plain wrong. And wrong headed. and so negative. And to add to the fun your the most judgemental person on this board, about everything. You ruin the right of others to just come and say something without constantly being attacked. And you take pride in that just like a bratty 15 year old, or being an adult a willful person with malicous intent. sounds criminal to me. your just plain toxic. Go bother soemeone else. Your sense reality is not healthy for anyone so why bully people to have to accept it? That is the epitome criminal behavior. I know what you are.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:52 pm
Brian, normally just ignore your posts, but please for the love of God STFU. Get over yourself for a moment and enjoy this victory.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:54 pm
well snow you may not know but micky attacks anything I say with cursing and bullying for a long time now and I have told him to keep it in his pants. The fact is Obama does deserve some real credit here, but I guess nobody is going to give him any and that is so wrong. He could have just done nothing and gotten away with it but chose to go after him in paki even with all the political troubles between our two countries.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:55 pm
micky your going to h double hockey sticks.
May 1st, 2011 at 7:56 pm
see Micky is always making rappe threats of the above sort. He is really twisted actually. Naturally I should respond or all of you will think its like legal to rappe people as morals are very fast and loose in here. I am actually doing a public service.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:01 pm
If I were standing next to you I’d beat the living snot out of you.
No one threatened to rape you, you incredible fckin liar.
Were done, you’re ruining this for me or anyone anymore.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:03 pm
there you go micky, more criminal behavior threats. that is you at the core. you are dishonest, a bully, and plain wrong. You have no respect for boundries or you wouldn’t even be talking like that. that is criminality.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:08 pm
micky you surely did say f you know what in caps with periods after each letter twice to me, but apparently someone or somehow you got it removed from this site in the past minutes. In my world that means you are threatening to rappe someone. Nobody says that to someone as just a curse word. Your really playing dirty here. and if someone is helping you, shame on them.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:13 pm
there is definitely a nexus between some elements of the right wing, or whatever this is, and criminality, and tonight it definitely reared its ugly head in the open. Now its hiding again. You guys are really contaminated and apparently lack the morals to care.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:16 pm
Brian, you’re f`d up with or without my help.
Yeah, Arriba took it down, but not at my request.
It was a display of disgust, and you know it.
trust me, this dude wants nothing to do with you in any sexual context.
Dont flatter yourself.
Now STFU, you’re ruining the party
May 1st, 2011 at 8:17 pm
on this thread your yelling threats at me and on another thread your talking so sensitive and safe, typing both at the same time pretty much. that is what psychopathology is all about, the wide range of feigned emotions, because no normal person can go from yelling at someone to showing their sensitive side to others so quickly. The minds defenses block that in normals as it gears up for the fight or flight state. Yeah, your truly a good example. Don’t call me a liar anymore, go review the new osama thread, it was there a minute ago. You got us coming and going. I see that now, clearly.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:20 pm
if you will recall I gave a simple praise statement to Obama and our forces over there and you tried to turn it into a problem with your usual judgemental crapola. Well you got your problem alright. Maybe that is fuel to you. but why such a weird source for feul?
May 1st, 2011 at 8:20 pm
Please stop. This is a night of joy for our nation that we can all share in together. Thank you.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:21 pm
“on this thread your yelling threats at me and on another thread your talking so sensitive and safe, ”
yeah, because you’re not there…
DUH!!!!
May 1st, 2011 at 8:25 pm
I agree Arriba, and all I did was make a simple short post early in the night, the first one, praising the obviously diligent work our country did and has been doing possibly when many thought we(obama) had given up. Then micky started his auto attacks like crazy and I just had enough of it. A person should be able to blog on a few things here without everything being such a drama.
May 1st, 2011 at 8:33 pm
no good deed goes unpunished on right pundits. Now why is that?