According to the polling that has occurred since our discussion and analysis last month, we are beginning to see some changes in the polling, especially in the last few days. However, Mike Huckabee remains in first place, and earns having his photo here.
The polls that we are using are derived from the Real Clear Politics listing of polls.
| Presidential Polls, Republican Primary Election Match-Ups | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Date | Polling Company | Huckabee | Romney | Trump | Palin | Gingrich | Ron Paul | Bachmann | Pawlenty | Daniels | Santorum | |
| 4/27/11 | Fox News> | 17% | 19% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | |
| 4/26/11 | Rasmussen | 15% | 17% | 19% | 9% | 9% | 8% | - | 5% | 3% | - | |
| 4/20/11 | Gallup> | 16% | 13% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | |
| 4/10/11 | McClatchy | 17% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |
| 4/9/11 | CNN | 19% | 11% | 19% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | |
| 4/3/11 | Fox News | 15% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | |
| 4/7/11 | PPP | 17% | 15% | 26% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 4% | - | - | |
| 3/31/11 | NBC/WSJ | 17% | 21% | 17% | 10% | 11% | - | 5% | 6% | - | 3% | |
| 3/18/11 | Gallup | 19% | 15% | - | 12% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 2% | |
| 3/8/11 | Pew | 20% | 21% | - | 13% | 11% | 8% | - | 3% | 2% | 2% | |
The only poll which tabulated respondents since the whole birth certificate brouhaha was the Fox News poll. Assuming that its results are reliable, and I have no reason to doubt it, Trump’s support has collapsed. His numbers are about half of what the previous Fox News poll showed for him. As well, his numbers are drastically down, and may induce him to take more drastic positions in order to maintain his visibility.
This often happens with candidates whose appeal is based upon one issue. As that issue recedes in importance, their own popularity begins to decline. Since the revelation this week, Trump has tried to maintain his position in a couple of ways. First, he implied that Obama only got into Harvard because of affirmative action. He called on the President to release his full college transcripts. This trial balloon fell flat when it was revealed that Trump’s son in law mat have only gotten into Harvard through a $2.5 million donation from his father, who later went to jail for tax evasion.
He then did his Las Vegas casino speech, where he decided to kick it up a notch by flavoring his speech with numerous gratuitous mf-bombs and f-bombs.
Photocredit HRC/WENN.
Photos: www.wenn.com
May 1st, 2011 at 10:00 am
A vice presidential contender perhaps with mitt romney at the head of the ticket? I don’t think he will get the bicoastal votes to make first place.
May 1st, 2011 at 1:55 pm
Arriba,
Did you see the link to a story in one of my posts about how Huckabee’s staff in South Carolina have been told to seek their fortunes elsewhere. He’s not going to run. The Tea Party doesn’t like Huckabee and now the Beck fans are mad at him, too.
May 1st, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Yeah, Andy, I hate that the powerful interests in the party want him out. They know that, if he stayed in, he’d win all of the southern primaries and would be a contender in the rest of them like he was in 08. They want to make sure that one of the ‘free lunch crowd’ gets the nomination. Then, Obama will win in a landslide and everyone can go home and cry in their vodka gimlets.
May 7th, 2011 at 12:04 am
Speaking as a norwegian who follows US politics, I think the most consistent republican candidate is Ron Paul, but if the party should have a chance to get the president they’d have to get Marco Rubio to run. He is younger than Obama, he’s decending from an ethnic minority, he’s intelligent and family-oriented. But apparently he has decided not to run, so it will be Obama 2012 for sure.