The primaries have reached their conclusion, and a good time was held by all of us. Exciting as they’ve been, the general election will be heating up pretty soon. I thought this would be a good time for another episode in my irregular series, who’s going to win.
These predictions are based on current Intrade prices. The guesses of how many House and Senate seats the Republicans will gain this year are based upon a silly math model that I’ve been playing with using the Intrade numbers, and are my responsibility alone. With those caveats, here’s the current standings:
Control of the House of Representatives
As of today, the Republicans have a 70.2% chance to take over the HofR according to Intrade. According to my model, since the GOP needs 39 seats to have the majority, that means that I guess that the Republicans can be expected to gain about 58 seats in the House this cycle.
Control of the Senate
In the Senate, Intrade has the Democrats with a 66.8% chance of keeping control. To me, this means that the Democrats will end up with 54 seats, a net loss of 5.
The 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee
Looking at the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012, here are the current standings with their percentages. Obviously, these are much more likely to fluctuate. I think that at this time in 2006, Giuliani was the favorite for the 2008 election, but he seems to have fallen a little short.
Mitt Romney 31.2%
John Thune 18%
Sarah Palin 17.9%
Mitch Daniels 13%
Tim Pawlenty 12.8%
Newt Gingrich 10.4%
There are a number of others who have less than 10% chance of getting the nomination. With Republicans, at least, it is usually unlikely that one of these will secure the prize in two years.