Since joining RightPundits, I’ve been reluctant to write about military matters, focusing more on political and economic issues. But one of the most important news stories of this week is the undeniable confirmation that a South Korean warship was indeed attacked by a torpedo launched from a North Korean submarine. Naturally, the North Koreans deny it and threaten “all out war” should they be subject to any new sanctions due to this event. So this begs at least two vital questions, “Why did North Korea do this?” and “How should we respond?”.
One of my all-time favorite books is the classic “How To Make War” by James F. Dunnigan. I actually met Mr. Dunnigan at the 1977 ORIGINS national war-game convention where I attended a seminar he gave shortly after writing this book. The guy knows what he’s talking about. To answer the first question, “Why did North Korea do this?”, Dunnigan provides the reason.
Totalitarian States are built on the skulls of crisis. Due to the inevitable internal crisis inherent in any Socialist/Totalitarian nation, they must deflect their population’s attention and ire to an external crisis. North Korea is the perfect example of this. They were a failed nation-state from very early on. After MacArthur’s brilliant landing at Inchon, North Korea lost the war they started. American and U.N. forces rolled them and annihilated them. Only the direct intervention of Communist China saved North Korea.
We must keep in mind that technically, as state of war still exists there. Only a piece of paper and the will of American and South Korean taxpayers has kept the peace these past five-plus decades. The border between North and South is still heavily militarized and quite deadly. A hair-trigger is all the separates war from peace.
The internal situation in North Korea was been steadily declining the past two decades. Famine, oppression and stark brutality are common, daily events. The regime is held together by fear and violence. Their economy is corrupt and the primary sources of ‘hard currency’ is from weapon sales and the product of slave labor. Not a pretty at all.
Given the advances in communication technology, more and more North Koreans are accessing news and information from beyond the state-controlled sources. Just as we saw in Eastern Europe, the people of the old Soviet Bloc nations saw Western television, particularly commercial advertising, and wanted blue jeans, BMWs and Coca-Cola! They saw the abundance of the West and compared that to the empty shelves of their local state-controlled stores. Westerns stood in line to see movies and buy new gadgets, Easterners stood in line to buy milk and bread.
South Korea is as Western as a nation can be. Even parts of China now resemble downtown Seoul or Tokyo. The North Korean people know they are in a jail and want out. Earlier this year, the government began talking peace again as a new round of multi-lateral talks were discussed to the North’s nuclear weapons program. Kim Jong Il was even speaking publicly about an actual peace treaty bring the 51 year-old war to a final conclusion. On opening the borders and developing trade and other exchanges with South Korea and the West.
Now this torpedo incident. Something is going on inside North Korea. Another wave of mass famine? A total collapse of what little economy they have? Or the beginnings of a military coup? Take your pick. The March naval attack is a signal that that the situation inside North Korea is about to change dramatically. How do we react to this? With calm, firm resolution. As we have seen in every Arab-Israeli war, Iraq and Afghanistan, we can easily defeat the best military hardware that the old Soviet Bloc had to offer. Even in Vietnam, in a convention fight, our side dominated.
Should the North Korea launch a full-scale attack against South Korea, they may inflict a great deal of death and destruction for a few days at best. But within 72 hours or less, the momentum will shift and the North would be slaughtered wholesale. It would make the “Highway of Death” between Kuwait City and Basra from ‘Gulf War I’ look like a Sunday picnic. The weapon systems we have now are a whole lot deadly, smarter, and more accurate. Of course, the wild card today, as in 1950, would be China. Especially nowadays with a growing anti-West movement, particularly in the Chinese military.
Personally, I don’t think China would be foolish enough to try and take us on militarily now. In ten years, once they build and develop their own blue-water fleet and stealthy air force, maybe. I suspect that if North Korea follows through after the torpedo incident and invades South Korea, China will sit it out this time. They may even be happy with North Korea committing national suicide and see it as an opportunity to secure direct control as a peace-maker. Of course, if China intervenes, this could wind up being a great opportunity for us to blast China back to the Stone Age. Either way, Obama could reap a windfall politically with playing strongman. Victory and Jobs would come in handy for the elections.










May 21st, 2010 at 12:42 pm
We should clean their clock and then apply all the N. Korean refugees crossing to China against our debt as they will no doubt be a good source of cheap labor. Even with Chinas horrific record on human rights they’ll be better off than they are now. At least they’ll have something to eat.
just a thought, but in realty the flow of refugees is Chinas worst nightmare which dictates that its pretty much upon them to b*tchslap Kim upside the head and tell him to behave.
Or maybe China is instigating this ?
Thats scary.
May 21st, 2010 at 12:55 pm
It’s about time someone took Kim out back the shed (his stupid glasses would be reason enough tho I suppose the fact that the average N Korean is shorter and weighs less than the average S Korean might hold more weight).
DOH, and I’m a lefty. We don’t think like this, do we?
May 21st, 2010 at 12:57 pm
I suppose a more relevant question is, what about his nukes? He’s getting old, his country, from most sources, is already a wasteland. What would he have to lose by using them?
May 21st, 2010 at 1:12 pm
I always felt bad for the North Korean People. I wish South Korea could over throw the Kim Government unite the country and all Koreans could have the the south Korean life style. I know I’m living in Disney Land.
May 21st, 2010 at 1:23 pm
Kims been getting paid off to behave by everyone.
Hes probably in need of another installment right about now.
@ Howard
I’m caught between thinking Kims a freaking lunatic or crazy like a fox. He could actually think hes immune to an attack be it precisely targeted at launching facilities, other strategic targets or his own life in particular.
It wouldnt surprise me in the least if he lobbed a nuke at S. Korea, Japan, or as he has in the past try to sell nuke goods or knowledge to radical Muslims.
N. Koreans are starving, hes probably trying to divert thepeoples attention to the supposed boogy man behind their plight.
Either way, whatever the scenario, its time this dickhead get his due, enough already.
In what world do we live in where you can just torpedo 47 unsuspecting people out of their skin for some obscure reason and not pay the price ?
May 21st, 2010 at 1:25 pm
“DOH, and I’m a lefty. We don’t think like this, do we?”
Nagasaki, Hiroshima ?
Maybe you’re a dying breed ?
May 21st, 2010 at 2:12 pm
We’re not all tree huggers…the world’s too nutty to think love will conquer all (a little reading of history oughtta cure just about everyone of such nonesense, heck, a little reading of history would probably do a great deal for all sides).
Anyway, gotta check the map of the region – where’s Beijing in relation to the Korean Peninsula and would the fallout head for the government seat of China? If so, no way they’d let him use nukes. If not, I’m not sure the Chinese government would mind losing some of their own population to nuclear fallout. History (there it is again)shows us the Communists generally treat their own worse than their enemies (which I’ve always found rather odd).
May 21st, 2010 at 2:26 pm
OMG…let’s review history. What a refreshing stance! If we do we would realize what a dork Harry Truman was. He fired the one guy that would have won that war and united the Korea’s for the betterment of all concerned. And we thought Harry did the right thing.
Nukes were the problem then as they are now. But, lets realize that N. Korea is on a peninsula which is ringed by our submarines. They would only last minutes. Yes, some collateral damage would occur but the world lesson would get the attention of the clowns in Iran and Paaaak-e-staaan.
May 21st, 2010 at 3:52 pm
Hey, Obama, please say hello to your little friend and appease him again…
May 21st, 2010 at 4:37 pm
SANCTIONS !!!
Yeah, thats the ticket !
Sht, what a joke, is there anything that could be taken from a country that already has nothing ? (except nukes)
I’m dead serious. If we end up havin to do something to protect Kims neighbors and the world from this desperate weirdo then China better be ready to forgive some of our debt.
This is their little red headed step chld to deal with
May 21st, 2010 at 6:45 pm
And you’d think China would look to send Kim’s a** packin’ if only ‘cos his version of Communism is bad for public relations.
May 21st, 2010 at 6:53 pm
By the way, L Rivera, your tough as nails President, Dubya, named 3 countries in his now infamous Axis of Evil portion of the State of the Union Address. He took out the only one who a) didn’t have nukes and b) wasn’t actively pursuing them.
Once a country has nukes, it’s not as simple as “let’s whoop some a**”. Kim’s gotta go, I can’t agree more with that assessment, but the question is, what of the nukes? His country is poor beyond words (save for himself and those close to him), very little grows in N Korea to begin with, he’s old as dirt, what does he have to lose to a nuke on his home soil (should he choose to use one and is thusly answered).
And if I may…a bit of a rant…how the heck do folks treat their own people in such a manner? Beyond comprehension. That’s his country, those are his people, and they’re considerably smaller than the southern counterparts due to his manner of rule. I’m not sure if there is a hell, but that MF better be drivin’ the bus, otherwise, it’s all a load of ****!
May 21st, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Thats not really fair Howard.
Kim would only talk if the talks were bi lateral and 47 innocent S. Koreans werent killed on his watch
And if you’re refering to Iraq as “not actively pursuing us” I could give you a host of examples where Iraq directed many threats aginst us after the Gulf war that violated peace treaty resolutions.
N. Korea is a sticky situation for any administration. As the threat grows so should the response. Obviously when they’re blowing a benign presence out of the water, killing 47 sailors, thinks are just a hair short of critical mass. Will Hillary and Obama follow thru on anything they prescribe ? China wont help with Iran, why should they help with Kim ?
May 21st, 2010 at 7:29 pm
I hear ya micky, it’s just not as simple as “oh the liberal socialist will roll over and appease all”.
I realize there are very fundamental differences between many of those who frequent this website and this administration. But looking at it from a less emotional viewpoint, I don’t have a problem with what this administration has tried to do on the foreign relations front.
They have tried to engage those regimes and governments with which our country has had differences with over the course of the last couple decades. The hardline was the ‘go to’ policy and it didn’t stop Kim from gaining nukes nor Iran from pursuing them. Trying something different should not be frowned upon.
That being said, we’re trying our d*mnedest to engage these governments and regimes and they’re being, well, for lack of a better term, punks. So now I’m curious as to how this administration will respond. I’d like to see “hey, we were earnest in our desire to find common ground, but you’ve not budged, so we’ll go back to the hardline.”
May 21st, 2010 at 7:38 pm
“it’s just not as simple as “oh the liberal socialist will roll over and appease all”.”
Could of fooled me
May 21st, 2010 at 7:55 pm
Aw micky, and here I thought we might actually have a discussion beyond middle school partisanship.
What, please do tell, did the last Republican administration do in regards to North Korea and Iran?
Nothing…nothing is the word you’re looking for.
May 21st, 2010 at 9:02 pm
Look, N. Korea has been a paradoxial b*tch for every administration since that treaty never even got signed.
People on the left after Iraq and Afghanistan b*tched at Bush because of his wild west cowboy attitude and then when he employed some diplomacy they still b*tched. We cant freeking win. By the way, we did interupt and destroy (along with Israel) N. Korean shipments to Syria and in Taiwan confiscated the millions in counterfeit American dollars produced by Kim.
At least we agree that its reached a point where this moron needs his head slapped in some form or manner that actually hurts.
May 21st, 2010 at 10:59 pm
@Howard, the last Administration was not tough enough – no one argues that. But they were very tough compared to THIS administration of appeasers. They make Neville Chamberlain look like a hawk. At least the world was wary of crossing a line with us before. Now they have no respect whatsoever for us. They are forming alliances against us in order to try to save themselves because this administration has proven itself to be so weak.
Obama’s ‘foreign policy’ is a joke and an embarrassment (what IS his foreign policy anyway? Does he even have one?). The tribes are gathering and the dogs of war are straining at their leashes.
May 24th, 2010 at 10:05 am
Once again Andrew your insight and experience has impressed me. Always a good read, and not too hard-right, either.
May 25th, 2010 at 10:39 pm
China is way too deeply integrated with the United States to risk destroying Sino US relations solely due to North Korea. Worst comes to worst, they’ll sit out a war while hurling half hearted insults at the United States as a formality.
May 25th, 2010 at 10:50 pm
@Xiang – I suspect you are right about that.