I can see it now. President Obama is standing at his favorite podium. His eyes are flashing, his ears are flapping, his finger pointing briskly. Obama shifts his stern glare between the TV camera and the teleprompters. Then out of his mouth comes those famous last words…, “This is all due to the policies of the previous administration.” Yeah, right! The worn-out record will be dusted off again this November after the 2010 mid-term election results are tallied. It WILL BE UGLY! Just how many seats might the Democrats lose to the Republicans?

Early predictions of a swing in House seats of 25-35 or so favoring the Republicans seem timid now. Many are now modifying their estimations and predicting a 50-seat swing. Some are even going beyond that! Way back in February, consummate Beltway Insider, Charlie Cook, told the National Journal that he sees a 70+ seat swing for the GOP. Minority Leader, John Boenher, predicted this past week that it could be a 100-seat swing! If that isn’t good enough for you, Michael Barone, another seasoned observer of national politics, said by his calculus, it could be as high as 130 seats! Even he has trouble with accepting his own analysis.

Let us low-ball it for a moment and look more carefully at Cook’s reasoning. He states a number of conditions that spell doom for the Democrats. First off, the boot-to-throat health care reform bill, Cook contends, will prove to be Obama’s Iraq War. Mind you, he was interviewed by the National Journal in January, well before the measure was passed and signed into law. Cook points to the fervor from the summer of 2009, as town halls became rage sessions. Democrat lawmakers were hammered by constituents over health care. The flames have yet to be quenched, especially now with the CBO revising it’s numbers and admitting that the new law will exceed a trillion dollars. Stand by for more revisions to come.

But Cook, and others, also point to TARP and the series of bailouts as the true beginnings of the public’s anti-incumbent anger. The stimulus bill has not helped either. Despite all the spin, there is no doubt that it failed to check unemployment from exceeding 8% as promised. Cook reminds us that since World War Two, we have only had one month, yes, ONE MONTH, where the unemployment rate exceeded 10%. We have now had it at essentially 10% for a year now with no signs that it is going to recede anytime soon. Some say the actual unemployment rate is closer to 17.5%. When you figure in those forced to work part-time jobs, more than one out of five Americans do not have full-time employment. We haven’t seen that since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Obama and the Democrats are now on the wrong side of the illegal immigrant issue. Nearly 70% nationwide support the Arizona law. This week’s nomination for the ‘Deer-in-the-Headlights’ Award goes to Attorney General Eric Holder for his admitting to Congress that he has yet to read all TEN PAGES of the Arizona law, even though he’s been speaking out against it for weeks. If one goes back to 2007, you may recall that Hillary Clinton and many other Democrats running for House and Senate seats initially took positions in favor of stricter anti-illegal immigration measures, including completion of The Wall along the Mexican border. Hillary came close to winning, and others did win thanks to that one. Holder wasn’t too swift, either, in not wanting to voice the obvious, that Islamic extremism is the primary reason behind the brand of terrorism we currently face.

The GOP is not immune either to the coming anti-incumbent tidal wave. We just saw veteran senator, Bob Bennett fail to even get enough votes to be placed on the ballot. This outcome, despite support from Orin Hatch and Mitt Romney, not to mention a 84% ‘conservative’ voting record. John McCain is facing a possible defeat in the Arizona primary. Charlie Crist got run out of the Republican Party so fast, they’re now selling his painting. Speaking of Orin Hatch, after his comments about Obama’s new Supreme Court nominee, Elena Kagan, probably being easily confirmed, the grassroots are now calling for Hatch to be shown the door. Get it? Hatch being shown the door?

With more revelations to come on how expensive and flawed the health care law is, more bailouts for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG, plus bailing out Europe, and more gaffs by the White House on terrorism, illegal immigration, the Gulf oil spill, and whatever else that comes does the pike, the voter sentiment will only get worse. For now, I’ll go along with Cook’s assessment that the anti-incumbent tsunami will wash up about 70 Democrat House seats on the shore of political oblivion. But if things continue on the current trajectory, we could easily see this go into triple digits! While Republicans will benefit from this, many long-serving incumbents will also find themselves looking for life after losing primaries. As the Klingons would say, “Revenge is a dish best served cold.” This November could be the coldest in history!