About a month ago, I presented the first look here at the 2012 Republican Presidential candidates, and how they stand. Here is the updated look at the Republican candidates for president, based upon Intrade, an Irish wagering website. Remember, this is just an exhibition, this is not a competition; please, no wagering.
The numbers indicate their current probability. The plus or minus next to their numbers indicates if this is an increase or decrease.
Mitt Romney 24.9 23.6 +
Sarah Palin 21.6 22.0
John Thune 14.4 12.7 +
Tim Pawlenty 8.1 7.6 +
Bobby Jindal 4.4 … ++
Scott Brown 4.2 4.5 +
Ron Paul 3.7 3.5 +
Mitch Daniels 3.6 2.3 ++
Jeb Bush 3.5 2.3 +
Newt Gingrich 3.0 2.9
Mike Huckabee 3.0 7.5 –
Mike Pence 2.6 2.5
Paul Ryan 2.5 … ++
Gary Johnson 2.0 2.1
The biggest gainers this month were Jindal, Daniels, and Ryan. I’d guess that the movement of the governors indicates some attitude that the direction for the Party should be for another governor. Ryan may be the flavor of the month, but some observers (me)are hopeful that this indicates a seriousness of the electorate. The biggest losers were Huckabee and (to my chagrin) Petraeus, who went below the 2.0 mark. I’m not sure why Huckabee declined, since I’m trying to reduce my carbs, and his sugary television program tends to be counter-productive. I assume Petraeus declined because of his comments about the Middle East, and the attitudes of one branch of the Party to them.
March 24th, 2010 at 4:59 am
My guy is at the very bottom. Which is why I have zero hope that the GOP will give me anything resembling a good alternative to Obama.
Looks like I’ll be voting third party.
March 24th, 2010 at 5:36 am
Be careful about In-Trade, it’s highly manipulated. Max Keiser, who had a great deal to do with creating virtual markets, has written extensively about In-Trade’s corruptions of perceptions.
BTW, even though he’s not Greek, a recent poll in Greece has 97% wanting him to be their new leader, or at least Finance Minister. Keiser has appeared several times on Greek TV and radio programs since their economic woes began. He always answers the first question with one of his own, “Have you arrested any bankers today?” LOL!
Check him out, http://www.maxkeiser.com
Maybe we can get him to run for president here? He’d be a heck of a lot better than the morons listed now!
March 24th, 2010 at 5:43 am
BTW, the reason Huckabee has declined is that he is a slice of very soggy milk-toast. After his mini-scandal, where a felon whose sentence he commuted committed more violent crimes, Huckabee got a case of Dukakis-itis. bad enough he raised taxes as governor what? 35 times? I can’t stand this fool. Whenever he appears on Fox, I change the channel.
March 24th, 2010 at 6:00 am
re #2: Right now, Intrade is the best source for odds, I think. Once IEM puts together its 2012 race, it will be the best, and I think it’s incredibly accurate, especially as a race gets toward the end. I followed it pretty closely in 04, 06, and 08, and it got the result (and the percentage) spot on. IEM, I was told, won’t start playing until candidates start announcing, which will probably be next year.