Of the 2010 Senate races, New York is unique in that the presumed challenger probably has better name identification than does the incumbent. The contest pits Kirsten Gillebrand, the recently appointed Senator against George Pataki, the ex-Governor of the state. Gillebrand was nominated by Governor Patterson when Caroline Kennedy, the presumptive nominee was the recipient of a wave of bad publicity and rumors which induced her to withdraw from contention. It should probably be noted that Hillary Clinton and her husband were upset at the Kennedys because of their support for Obama…and as everyone recognizes, they will exact their revenge.

George Pataki was elected Governor in a major upset over Mario Cuomo in 1994; he then served as governor until 2007. In an interesting sidebar to the 1994 race, polls showed him losing by a fairly large amount. Rudy Giuliani, shortly before the election, endorsed Cuomo. But in the first major show of strength of religious conservatives in the state, voting in upstate NY pushed Pataki over the top.

Kirsten Gillebrand

Biography – Gillebrand graduated from the UCLA School of Law in 1991. She was then Special Counsel to HUD under Andrew Cuomo (who is now running for Governor of NY). Until appointed to the US Senate, she was a Congressional representative from rural upstate New York. She is married with two sons.

Issues – The policy issues Gillebrand is emphasizing in her campaign are:

The Economy – Her goal is that NY receives an increased share of federal dollars. Currently, as does much of the northeastern and Midwestern states, provides much more to the US Government than it receives in return; in fact, NY and its residents sends $1 to Washington for every $ 0.79 it receives in return. She also has supported and voted for the Stimulus plan last year, thinking that this would help NY recover from the recession more quickly. She also supports providing funds as needed to investment banks (apparently the hundreds of billions of dollars we gave Wall Street doesn’t count against the $ .79 discussed above).

Education – Gillebrand supports increasing financial aid for college students, increased funding for early childhood education, and increased federal funding to assist school districts with keeping teachers and hiring new ones.

Health Care – Gillebrand seeks to improve access to health care and wants to make quality, affordable health care coverage a national priority. She does not mention, on her web site, whether she supports the public option, or not.

George Pataki

Biography – Pataki graduated from Columbia School of Law in 1970. He practiced law for about 10 years, then began elective office by being elected mayor of Peekskill in 1981. He then served in the State Assembly for 6 years, plus one term in the State Senate before running for governor. His tenure as governor obviously included the traumatic events of 9/11, where he maintained a calm hand at the helm of state government.

Although Pataki hasn’t decided whether or not to run, there were only three plausible challengers to her at the beginning of the electoral cycle – Peter King, Rudy Giuliani, and Pataki. The first two have decided to withdraw their names for consideration. He is currently employed in the field of renewable energy law, where he does environmental consulting. He is also active in the fields of international climate change and terrorism issues. The main rationale Pataki has provided for not seeking the Senate is his age (64). John Cornyn, head of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee has apparently approached Pataki repeatedly about the run, since he is the best opportunity for the Republicans to take the seat. Since Pataki has not yet decided to enter the race, he has obviously not issued position statements. If/when this occurs, we will update his information.

Currently, polling shows Pataki with a slight advantage over Gillebrand, 45.0% to 42.3% (according to Real Clear Politics).




Senate Polls, New York, Democrat Primary Race

Polling Date Polling Company Kirsten Gillebrand (D) Harold Ford (D)
2/1/2010 Quinnipiac 36% 18%
1/27/2010 Marist 44% 27%
1/20/2010 Daily Kos 41% 27%
1/18/2010 Rasmussen 48% 23%




Senate Polls, New York, Republican Primary Race

Polling Date Polling Company George Pataki (R) Peter King (R) DioGuardi (R) Blakeman (R) Malpass (R)
7/12/2010 Siena - - 24% 7% 5%

6/20/2010 Quinnipiac - - - 14% 11%

6/9/2010 Siena - - 21% 7% 3%

5/11/2010 Marist - - 31% 13% 12%




Senate Polls, New York, General Election Match-ups

Polling Date Polling Company Kirsten Gillebrand (D) Malpass (R) DioGuardi (R) Blakeman (R)
7/12/2010 Siena 51% - 29% -

7/12/2010 Siena 51% - - 28%

7/12/2010 Siena 50% 27% - -

6/20/2010 Quinnipiac 47%% 25% - -

6/20/2010 Quinnipiac 46% - - 26%

6/16/2010 Rasmussen 49%% 34% - -

6/16/2010 Rasmussen 50% - - 38%

6/16/2010 Rasmussen 49% - 38% -

6/9/2010 Siena 49%% 24% - -

6/9/2010 Siena 49% - - 27%

6/9/2010 Siena 47% - 29% -

5/24/2010 Siena 53%% 23% - -

5/24/2010 Siena 51% - - 24%

5/24/2010 Siena 51% - 25% -

5/18/2010 Rasmussen 46%% 27% - -

5/18/2010 Rasmussen 51% - - 31%

5/18/2010 Rasmussen 51% - 28% -

5/11/2010 Marist 50% - 30% -

4/18/2010 Siena 46% - 27% -