Boozman trouncing Lincoln in latest polls.
Here are the latest polls for the Arkansas Senate race starring Blanche Lincoln against a crowded GOP field. AR Senate polls show that Lincoln is highly vulnerable, and her defeat in the general election may be a foregone conclusion. Therefore intense interest will be placed on the GOP primary in Arkansas.
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Election Desk Discussion (Arkansas Winner Projection, Latest News, Exit polls, etc.)
If it were not for Blanche Lincoln’s fund-raising war-chest we would already declare her a footnote in the history of a very interesting 2010 election year. She has over $5 million cash on hand which far outpaces any of the potential GOP opponents.
Her approval rating in Arkansas is horrendous, with almost a 60% disapproval rating from potential voters. In any of the potential match-ups she barely limps over 40% in the polls, far below the 50% re-elect number which historically signals the end of an incumbent Senator’s tenure in office.
In such a crowded field Kim Hendren would have the advantage if only he was not a man! Unfortunately there is no viable woman on the ticket so the GOP will be unable to negate any woman-factor that Blanche Lincoln still enjoys.
Campaign financing will clearly play a major role in gaining name recognition for any of the candidates, and in that endeavor John Boozman and Gilbert Baker are in the fundraising lead.
As head of the Arkansas Tea Party movement, Tom Cox will also have a bedrock of hard core supporters while Curtis Coleman will also have some advantage as a political outsider. Jim Holt, who just entered the race in early January, has the advantage in the polls because of his greater name recognition.
The GOP primary will be held on May 18th, 2010. A runoff will follow on June 8th if nobody get 50% of the vote, a prospect that appears likely. The general election will be one of those Senate races that the GOP is nationalizing, with the unpopular health care legislation taking center stage along with the perceived failure of Democratic economic policies which Lincoln supported.
As the polls show us any of these candidates vying for the Arkansas Senate seat would beat Lincoln if the election were held today given that she is an incumbent who can barely manage 40%. Lucky for her the general election is far away although things look really bad for her reelection chances.
These Arkansas Senate polls will be updated as new data is released by the major polling outfits.
|Senate Polls, Arkansas, General Election Matchups|
|10/28/2010||Rasmussen||Lincoln 36 – John Boozman 55|
|10/20/2010||The Arkansas Poll||Lincoln 35 – John Boozman 54|
|10/19/2010||Mason Dixon||Lincoln 34 – John Boozman 55|
|10/19/2010||CNN||Lincoln 41 – John Boozman 55|
|9/18/2010||Reuters||Lincoln 29 – John Boozman 53|
|9/16/2010||Talk Business||Lincoln 29 – John Boozman 56|
|9/14/2010||Mason Dixon||Lincoln 34 – John Boozman 51|
|8/18/2010||Rasmussen||Lincoln 27 – John Boozman 65|
|7/18/2010||Rasmussen||Lincoln 35 – John Boozman 54|
|7/17/2010||Rasmussen||Lincoln 32 – John Boozman 57|
|7/12/2010||Rasmussen||Lincoln 29 – John Boozman 60|
|6/15/2010||Rasmussen||Lincoln 32 – John Boozman 61|
|5/27/2010||Daily Kos||Halter 42 – Boozman 53|
|5/27/2010||Daily Kos||Blanche Lincoln 38 – John Boozman 58|
|5/21/2010||Rasmussen||Halter 33 – John Boozman 60|
|5/21/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 28 – John Boozman 66|
|5/12/2010||Daily Kos||Halter 41 – Boozman 50|
|5/12/2010||Daily Kos||Blanche Lincoln 40 – John Boozman 54|
|5/5/2010||Mason Dixon||Halter 32 – Boozman 56|
|5/5/2010||Mason Dixon||Blanche Lincoln 35 – John Boozman 52|
|4/29/2010||Daily Kos||Blanche Lincoln 40 – Gilbert Baker 47|
|4/29/2010||Daily Kos||Blanche Lincoln 42 – John Boozman 52|
|4/29/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 31 – Gilbert Baker 53|
|4/29/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 29 – John Boozman 57|
|4/29/2010||Daily Kos||Halter 44 – Baker 53|
|4/29/2010||Daily Kos||Halter 42 – Boozman 47|
|4/29/2010||Rasmussen||Halter 33 – Gilbert Baker 48|
|4/29/2010||Rasmussen||Halter 31 – John Boozman 56|
|4/15/2010||Daily Kos||Lincoln 41 – Baker 48|
|4/15/2010||Daily Kos||Lincoln 43 – Boozman 50|
|4/15/2010||Daily Kos||Halter 43 – Baker 45|
|4/15/2010||Daily Kos||Halter 41 – Boozman 48|
|2/2/2010||PPP||Blanche Lincoln 35 – Gilbert Baker 50|
|2/2/2010||PPP||Blanche Lincoln 33 – John Boozman 56|
|2/2/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 35 – John Boozman 55|
|2/2/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 33 – Gilbert Baker 52|
|2/2/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 34 – Curtis Coleman 50|
|2/2/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 36 – Tom Cox 50|
|2/2/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 35 – Kim Hendren 51|
|1/22/2010||Mason-Dixon||Blanche Lincoln 39 – Gilbert Baker 43|
|1/22/2010||Mason-Dixon||Blanche Lincoln 40 – Curtis Coleman 39|
|1/22/2010||Mason-Dixon||Blanche Lincoln 43 – Kim Hendren 38|
|1/22/2010||Mason-Dixon||Blanche Lincoln 41 – Tom Cox 38|
|1/22/2010||Mason-Dixon||Blanche Lincoln 37 – Jim Holt 43|
|1/7/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 39 – Gilbert Baker 51|
|1/7/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 39 – Curtis Coleman 47|
|1/7/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 38 – Tom Cox 48|
|1/7/2010||Rasmussen||Blanche Lincoln 38 – Kim Hendren 48|
Remember Arkansas exit polls and election results will be included with the live election returns window to be included here.
Contributing authors: Frank, Arriba, McCain