Here’s some of the latest on the 2010 Missouri Senate race between Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan. The seat is currently held by outgoing Republican Kit Bond, he’ll be retiring at the end of this term. The Missouri race is quite intriguing since it’s a seat currently held by the GOP and they’d love to retain it. Current Missouri Senate polls show Roy Blunt riding the wave of support for the Republicans.

missouri polls senate
Missouri Senate Race Polls: Blunt – Carnahan 2010




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Election Desk Discussion (Missouri Winner Projection, Latest News, Exit polls, etc.)




With polls showing a surge by Republican Roy Blunt, Robin Carnahan is tacking to the right; she released a statement showing her displeasure with President Obama’s budget proposal that he sent to Congress. She said in her statement that it was time that Washington starting setting priorities like the American people have to do.

Current Missouri Senate race polls show Roy Blunt with a 13 point lead after being in a dog fight in previous polls. Robin Carnahan, the current Secretary of State for Missouri has, like all democrats in 2010, the looming shadow of Barack Obama to overcome. She has physically avoided Obama but her voting record dogs her.

If you were to read Carnahan’s statement on the budget you’d think she was a GOP deficit hawk. It seems to be the right approach, any other strategy by democrats this year will lead to utter disaster. They have no choice but to try and peel away from Obama policies and hope the voters buy it. Robin Carnahan is of course the daughter of Mel Carnahan, the late popular Governor of MO. Her mother Jean served in the U.S. Senate from 2001-2002 after being appointed to the seat that Governor Carnahan won after a tragic plane crash.

Roy Blunt is a former House Majority leader, taking over for the disgraced Tom DeLay. He is currently serving as a U.S. Rep. from the Branson area. He like Carnahan has ties to state politics in Missouri, his son Matt was Governor from 2005-2009.

Since declaring that he would seek the GOP nomination in 2010 for the seat held by Kit Bond, Blunt has been steadily climbing in the polls. He now rides a wave of momentum established by earlier Republican victories in previous elections and the worries overall of Obama policies.

Blunt can continue his climb in the polls and be a part of the grand retaking of the Senate in 2010 by continuing to espouse conservative principles and somehow attach Robin Carnahan to Obama. It’s very likely that the Missouri Senate race will be competitive until the end. While the edge would seem to go to Blunt right now, the Carnahan name carries a lot of weight in the “Show Me State” of Missouri. Latest MO Senate polls are summarized below. Data is still sparse early in the year. Here’s an interesting breakdown of the race with each candidate’s projected chance of winning.

Senate Polls, Missouri, General Election Match-ups

Polling Date Polling Company Roy Blunt (R) Robin Carnahan (D)
10/27/2010 Missouri State 54% 41%

10/20/2010 Mason Dixon 49% 40%

10/19/2010 Rasmussen 52% 43%

10/16/2010 Fox News 49% 43%

10/5/2010 Rasmussen 51% 43%

10/5/2010 CNN 53% 40%

10/2/2010 Rasmussen 50% 42%

9/21/2010 Rasmussen 52% 44%

9/7/2010 Rasmussen 53% 43%

8/23/2010 Rasmussen 54% 41%

8/22/2010 Missouri State University 49% 48%

8/15/2010 Daily Kos 45% 38%

7/27/2010 Rasmussen 49% 43%

7/21/2010 Mason-Dixon 48% 42%

7/13/2010 Rasmussen 47% 45%

6/28/2010 Rasmussen 48% 43%

6/3/2010 Rasmussen 45% 44%

5/4/2010 Rasmussen 50% 42%

4/6/2010 Rasmussen 48% 42%

3/28/2010 PPP 45% 41%

3/9/2010 Rasmussen 47% 41%

2/10/2010 Rasmussen 49% 42%




Now, let’s crunch some numbers.

Why is Roy Blunt so far ahead?

Let’s look at men vs. women, independents, and then compare the crossover vote (republicans for Robin Carnahan, democrats for Roy Blunt.)




Men
Time Span : Blunt / Carnahan / Other / Not Sure / Difference

2/10/2010 : 52.87% / 36.56% / 5.67% / 4.90% / 16.31%
1/19/2010 : 54.69% / 39.08% / 2.67% / 3.56% / 15.61%
12/15/2009 : 50.75% / 40.59% / 5.38% / 3.28% / 10.16%
11/13/2009 : 45.00% / 40.00% / 0.00% / 15.00% / 5.00%
10/6/2009 : 54.00% / 41.00% / 0.00% / 5.00% / 13.00%
9/21/2009 : 54.32% / 37.45% / 2.55% / 5.68% / 16.87%

It is very clear that men have always favored Roy Blunt over Robin Carnahan. With the exception of the PPP poll on November 13, 2009, men have been polling over 50% for Roy Blunt and 40% or less for Robin Carnehan.





Women
Time Span : Blunt / Carnahan / Other / Not Sure / Difference

2/10/2010 : 45.61% / 46.51% / 1.64% / 6.24% / -0.90%
1/19/2010 : 45.40% / 46.62% / 2.52% / 5.46% / -1.22%
12/15/2009 : 38.05% / 49.86% / 3.47% / 8.62% / -11.81%
11/13/2009 : 39.00% / 45.00% / 0.00% / 16.00% / -6.00%
10/6/2009 : 38.00% / 55.00% / 0.00% / 7.00% / -17.00%
9/21/2009 : 39.87% / 52.95% / 2.26% / 4.92% / -13.08%

This data clearly shows that men are trending toward Roy Blunt, however women are, at present, evenly divided between both Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan.





Independents
Time Span : Blunt / Carnahan / Other / Not Sure / Difference

2/10/2010 : 54.74% / 26.97% / 7.45% / 10.84% / 27.77%
1/19/2010 : 52.29% / 31.59% / 4.17% / 11.95% / 20.70%
12/15/2009 : 43.17% / 40.86% / 9.91% / 6.06% / 2.31%
11/13/2009 : 44.00% / 32.00% / 0.00% / 24.00% / 12.00%
10/6/2009 : 52.00% / 31.00% / 0.00% / 17.00% / 21.00%
9/21/2009 : 46.44% / 37.92% / 4.89% / 10.75% / 8.52%

This data clearly shows that independents are trending towards Roy Blunt by an almost 2 to 1 ratio. This data will need to be confirmed, however, Robin Carnahan is in trouble with independents.





Republicans
Time Span : Blunt / Carnahan / Other / Not Sure / Difference

2/10/2010 : 87.15% / 7.63% / 1.65% / 3.57% / 79.52%
1/19/2010 : 88.81% / 5.51% / 4.49% / 1.19% / 83.30%
12/15/2009 : 82.80% / 5.68% / 1.63% / 9.89% / 77.12%
11/13/2009 : 82.00% / 7.00% / 0.00% / 11.00% / 75.00%
10/6/2009 : 84.00% / 10.00% / 0.00% / 6.00% / 74.00%
9/21/2009 : 84.63% / 12.52% / 1.21% / 1.64% / 72.11%





Democrats
Time Span : Blunt / Carnahan / Other / Not Sure / Difference

2/10/2010 : 8.71% / 84.73% / 2.47% / 4.09% / -76.02%
1/19/2010 : 11.74% / 84.32% / 0.00% / 3.94% / -72.58%
12/15/2009 : 7.53% / 86.61% / 3.11% / 2.75% / -79.08%
11/13/2009 : 6.00% / 83.00% / 0.00% / 11.00% / -77.00%
10/6/2009 : 7.00% / 90.00% / 0.00% / 3.00% / -83.00%
9/21/2009 : 9.76% / 83.65% / 1.75% / 4.84% / -73.89%

This data clearly shows that, with the exception of the January 19, 2010 poll by Rasmussen, there is an equal crossover vote.

Will this continue? Only time will tell. I do want other firms to poll this race, though.

Remember Missouri exit polls and election results will be included with the live election returns window to be included here.

Contributing authors: Frank, Shannon, McCain