Some of you may find this to be a big surprise, but a Harvard study shows that the great swine flu pandemic was oversold. Shocking I know, as one doctor points out, “The H1N1 pandemic was a pandemic that never materialized.” Then I guess you could call the swine flu pandemic oversold, wouldn’t you think?
The Harvard study uses the deaths from H1N1 back in the spring and projecting what they would have been in the fall suggests that the swine flu pandemic was indeed oversold by a government willing to allow its citizens to be in a constant state of fear. Some had suggested all along that the government was using the news of a possible swine flu pandemic as a means of fear mongering. Hard to believe, huh? A fear mongering government, who would have thought?
This is in no way intended to make light of those who did die from the disease, but let’s think back to all of the reports telling us that small children, older people, and pregnant women were dying by the thousands and the pandemic had reached biblical proportions. Perhaps swine flu was oversold. But why?
The CDC had previously estimated that nearly 100,000 people would die from the swine flu. We haven’t yet reached 10,000 and most flu activity has leveled off. The CDC now reports that just 11 states have widespread flu activity. The government was at one time in full throated vaccination mode. Joe Biden himself said he wouldn’t ride the subway. Once again, why?
At one time, it was feared the swine flu pandemic would cause there to be worldwide shortage of the much needed swine flu vaccine. Now, just a few months later, with swine flu oversold to the degree it has been, a surplus of vaccinations looks to be the order. Nice call governments of the world.
Is there likely to be more flu cases before springtime? Most definitely, but I’m no doctor. The fact is the swine flu pandemic was oversold to a public that sometimes seems to feed on doom and gloom. A perfect situation for a fear mongering government. Is it possible the pandemic was touted to take the public’s mind off of more serious subjects like the war, economy, terrorism, the government takeover of well, everything? I’m not generally into conspiracy theories but the swine flu oversell makes you wonder.
January 2nd, 2010 at 6:20 pm
This seems a little heavy-handed. It is impossible to accurately predict some things, and pandemic-like things must be among the hardest. So if the administration erred on the side of caution, it was doing it’s job. My take is the 24 hour news cycle hyped it more, but a hyped message is probably the only one much of the public would respond too. And imagine if the message was downplayed, little vaccine was made, and it was a more virulent flu than this one turned out to be. Pundits would blame the government for not doing enough. Classic “Damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation here, I suspect.
January 2nd, 2010 at 6:28 pm
its interesting you used this to spin a criticixm of the obama-ites, but in fact, I got the swine flu and seasonal flu vaccines with no side effects shortly before I had some coughing people with walking pneumonia cough all over me. a day later I felt a little fluish, which is the incubation time, but it never caught on, so for about two weeks I was a little ill, but hardly really. I think the vaccines saved me and I pushed to get them just in the nick of time because of the media and obama. so $5o bux of shots saved me nicely. I can hardly complain and the peace of mind of havign some protection is wonderful.. DougH is right of course. how can you spin this so bitterly negartive? see that is my complaint, the bush-repub spin machine lives on.
January 2nd, 2010 at 6:28 pm
I suspect if you were one of the families who had a loved one die from H1N1 Swine Flu, you would not wallow in contempt and whine about being “oversold” on the warnings. Since you are not one of those unfortunates, you have reverted to type and are whining about being cheated by intellectuals and scientists again. Oh, the poor, poor right-wing. Victims of everyone and everything. Someday soon I suspect you will begin murdering people who wear glasses because it makes them look smart.
January 2nd, 2010 at 6:34 pm
rena is my hero!
January 2nd, 2010 at 6:47 pm
Great more people on the right should not get the vaccine. Problem Solved.
January 2nd, 2010 at 6:56 pm
The problem with preventing disease is that if you are indeed successful, you are inherently criticized that the risk was overblown. Because number of cases are easier to report than number of prevented cases, it makes sense that you end up being damned for preventing morbidity.
January 2nd, 2010 at 7:00 pm
A right-winger, Bush supporter, calling ANY other government fear mongering is the most amazing irony I’ve ever seen…
January 2nd, 2010 at 7:28 pm
wasn’t expecting a perfectly halarious movie-perfect.
January 2nd, 2010 at 7:29 pm
In 2005 I questioned the conventional wisdom of the time that suggested that:
1. Bird flu would be the next pandemic
2. We’re all gonna die
Dr. Michael Osterholm, who heads the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, told me in an e-mail that the coming flu pandemic was far more likely to be like 1918 than either of the other two in the 20th Century. He was somewhat condescending.
He depends for his livelihood on the grants that he receives from the government to predict and analyze epidemics and pandemics. It is in his self interest to create as much fear as possible and to do so on a regular basis, to keep those tax dollars flowing in to his operation.
I was wrong in anticipating 600,000 deaths in the U.S. I was, and am, correct that the number of deaths in young people is worrisome. However, it is also fair to point out that 75% of the young people who have died have underlying conditions that put them at risk for flu complications and they would have been vulnerable and at risk for seasonal flu.
The production of a vaccine by August was a near miracle by the pharma companies. We have lots of vaccine now, not unexpectedly, because enough time has passed in the production cycle.
Flu pandemics occur with regularity. Some will be severe, some mild. We cannot know until the pandemic is underway which we will have.
January 2nd, 2010 at 7:36 pm
2005 – George W. Bush: You’ll get your bird flu shot and you’ll like it, b!tches!
January 2nd, 2010 at 7:42 pm
Let’s see …. 100,000 projected deaths vs 300,000,000 people in the US…. That would be a risk of .0003. But wait …. actual deaths were 10,000 so that would be .00003 % chance of dying. May I ask ….. Who is spinning whom?
January 2nd, 2010 at 7:46 pm
the pathophysiology of swine flu is visciois as the virus can attack the lower airway, or alveolar part of the lung createing an inflammator pneumonia of its own separate from weakening it for a secondary bacterial penumonia. your lungs ability to clear pneumonia from deep lung is much more challenging than a higher bronchial pneumonia. It is highly virulent to lung tissue in compromised hosts, from diabetics to cardiac to obesity. they can all land you in an icu and not for days but expensive weeks. you don’t want this. we still cannot estimate the virulance of specific strains of various population sub groups. thats a whole new area of predictive epidemiology to develop and its not going to be easy.
January 2nd, 2010 at 7:46 pm
Actually, in percentage terms, the numbers are .03% and .003%, respectively. (Multiply by 100 for %s0.
January 2nd, 2010 at 7:48 pm
med trained, are you saying 30.000 deaths, about a years worth of traffic fatalities is insignificant? That will likely affect 4 times as many family members tragically taking loved ones away. look at all the manpower and legal power employed trying to keep our highways just a bit safer. now who is being an insensitive spinner???
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:06 pm
And you want to the government to run the health care business as well????
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:07 pm
Is it really to much to expect a link to this Harvard study, along with its name, date and author(s)? And did the study find “fear-mongering” or is that just your opinion or interpretation?
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:13 pm
swird flu-what a joke! you are all sheeple. lets let the govt inject us, and we will all be okay! im sure thats what all the pioneers were thinking when they were crossing this wonderful nation that we stole from the indigenous people! you people are fickle, naive peons, that have no clue!
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:14 pm
I was cynical about this all along! My suspicion was that our Fearless Leaders are getting better at herding us like sheep. Our national government is transforming into a cradle-to-grave “Mama”. Begging Big Mama for jobs, loans, protection, schooling, housing, medical treatment, permission to crap, etc., will STILL not be enough. We must be led to believe that we owe our very LIVES to Big Mama. The whole point was for mass innoculation, even if a placebo, so that the “missing” carnage could be spun as the blessing of Big Mama Government. All Hail! What bullshit!
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:14 pm
Government can’t do anything right. Honestly can anyone tell me one time they’ve succeeded that’s not military?
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:16 pm
i believe its what you would call-population control!
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:18 pm
I would venture a guess that most of the flu that started in Mexico and spread around the world was facilitated by the same group that furnished the stimulus to the pharmacy
apparatus that made the vaccine and was never proven effective one way or the other. Seems like the real pandemic in the world is ABORTION. Will people ever get it right?
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:21 pm
From the Harvard School of Public Health press release, Dec. 7:
“As more detailed data have become available, we have been able to improve our estimates of how severe this disease is. Early on, it was difficult to measure the flu’s impact and it was crucial to plan for the full range of possible outcomes. Fortunately, the virus now appears to be near the milder end,” said Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at HSPH and the study’s senior author.
[...]
While the news is better than was thought at the start of the pandemic, Lipsitch emphasizes that it remains important to continue to vaccinate against pandemic H1N1 and to remain vigilant about disease in groups at risk of complications. “This is a serious disease,” said Lipsitch.
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:27 pm
charles Says:
“Government can’t do anything right. Honestly can anyone tell me one time they’ve succeeded that’s not military?”
Sure. The government succeeded in building the highway system, the Internet, the laser (paid for by the NRL), the first generation of computers, and it paid for or directly developed most first-gen semiconductors, nuclear power, air traffic control, airports, most of the progress in aviation, most 20th century medical breakthroughs, the best public health system (until a few decades ago), land grant colleges, the transcontinental railway, the telegraph, and the streamship. Also police, fire protection, social security and medicare.
People who think the U.S. government has not made important contributions have no knowledge of history or technology.
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:33 pm
That’s funny! If the Obama Administration has not responded the way they had, this same writer would be writing the same basic tripe, only saying that Obama was negligent. Do these right wing whackadoodles honestly not realize how transparent and phony they sound? Is that possible?
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:35 pm
Jed Rothwell replied…
“Sure. The government succeeded in building…”
Great response. It amazes me that the people who claim that Obama and “the liberals” are destroying their way of life seem so utterly clueless that it was PREVIOUS liberals (who were equally despised by right-wing imbeciles just like themselves in their time) are the very ones responsible for us HAVING a great way of life.
They take “obtuse” to a whole ‘nother level.