Some places have betting on pretty much everything under the sun. I thought it might be interesting to see what the current odds are on who will win the Republican Presidential nomination in 3 years. Remember this is only an exhibition, this is not a competition. Please, no wagering.
I’ll only list the frontrunners and their odds:
Romney 3-1
Barbour 4-1
Gingrich 5-1
Palin 5-1
Boehner 8-1
Pawlenty 10-1
Huckabee 10-1
A few long shots I think have a reasonable chance are Petraeus (20-1), Jeb Bush (20-1), and George Allen (33-1).
December 19th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
How did you come to these results?
December 19th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
If this is all you got, then you in trouble.
Isn’t there some young Bush somewheres? It’s an awful big family, you know.
December 19th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
charles, I got them from a foreign website that I had looked at in the 2008 election to test a poli sci hypothesis. I believe it’s irish, it’s called paddypower. They actually listed about 40 different people.
December 19th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
“If this is all you got, then you in trouble.”
Doesnt matter what you guys put up.
After what weve seen lately you guys wont see another presidency for decades
December 19th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Can you put the link up? Also I feel the place Huckabee was put is completely wrong and Romney is in the wrong spot to. Romney is probably one of my least favorite picks for the election. And he’s not well liked by many people for Romneycare.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
seriously you guys are so crazy, your just going to bypass the yet to be seen obama years and simply push to get your guy back in there, to do what might I ask? You’ve already made it clear to America you are the party of No, and you don’t want to do anything for anybody. So why do you even want to govern? Do you not see the magnitude of the problems we have and we do have to address them, not just continually ignore them for the benifit of your aggressive self serving lobbiests and speculative financiers that are playing us all.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
its funny, but you block everything domestic that could improve the home front as “socialist” but totally support more “statist” military adventurism in afghanistan and where-ever with no problems at all. at the core, what kind of people are you?
December 19th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
Brian, bullsht, kay ?
The right has plenty of proposals to todays problems but you’re not going to hear about them as long as the left keeps dominating the airwaves with all the useless and damging legislation and policies they’re pushing all over the place right now.
All you’ll see on the news until the next campaign cycle starts is what the dems are up to be it healthcare, gerbil warming, economics.
” but totally support more “statist” military adventurism in afghanistan and where-ever with no problems at all. at the core, what kind of people are you?”
(better than you?)
Ask Obama, wasnt that his call ?
“seriously you guys are so crazy, your just going to bypass the yet to be seen obama years and simply push to get your guy back in there, to do what might I ask?”
Weve seen enough Brian.
We dont need to watch a car go round the track with 3 wheels to many times before we know its not going to work.
To do what ?
How bout getting people back to work ?
How bout making the dollar worth a buck again ?
How bout actually defending the country ?
jeez.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Brian,
I see that the thorazine still has not kicked in yet. Don’t worry buddy, they will find the right levels for you eventually.
As for for the topic:
Romney – RomneyCare – buh bye Mitt
Barbour – Like him but too southern for 12 and I question if he is tough enough to take on the Marxists. See his comments from the Gov association meeting a month ago.
Gingrich – no way. Commercials with Nancy Pelosi.
Boehner – will he wear his checkered pants?
Pawlenty – ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Huckabee – Actually makes Dems look tough on crime.
Where is Thune on this gambling site? Only he and Palin are real contenders. Don’t lay a dime on anyone else.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
HSA’s, a smart way to keep HC costs under control were a Republican idea. Sadly, most of the provisions were taken out or watered down by the Dems in the last 3 years.
Reform? Simple. Allow Ins. firms to compete across state lines and have real tort reform. Then, CAN Medicare and have 12 to 14 pools subbed to private firms to handle the senior business. Their can be a subsidy from the gov for this. That way you get rid of the enormous government beaurocracy that creates massive inefficiences. Gov employees generally don’t work as hard and are not as productive as private market employees whose goal is to have great service so that they can make profits.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
well boehners’ health care reform plan lacked so many things it wasn’t a serious plan if you really want to reform the program. yes tort reform is necessary. but what are you guys wanting to do? we have serious real, very expensive problems? so what do you plan to do? personally I want tax cuts, but I fail to see where giving the wealthy even more tax cuts is going to help people like me or you. You could make the argument the bush tax cuts made it more profitable for stock and derivative speculators to quickly buy and sell positions as they were taxed less thus unleashing forces that devoured our lunch. Why should we give more tax breaks while college students tuitions keep rising 14 percent a year? who are we trying to help here?
December 19th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
palin is a phenommena, not a serious contender for president. She’s a former beauty queen/sports broadcaster run amuck. She probably would pick really bad policies for the kind of country we are. We are not alaska in most of the lower 48. I would be honered to be governor of a state, so who throws that away to run for national office? who is she serving. I think she has “issues” though on the surface looks attractive, but honestly out side of sarah being sarah I don’t know what she stands for. too many egoists in the repub wing.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
Brian,
Yea, that Palin. I guess she is about as deep as a community organizer, eh?
December 19th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Sorry Brian,
I am not going to endlessly debate an insane, Marxist who has not yet found the proper levels of Thorazine for his chemical makeup.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
oh, mdelf, don’t you remember what happened when we let banks compete across state lines but the feds didn’t regulate them? financial armeggeddon. so the insurance companies will just move to the least regulated state and do whatever they want. hsa’s didn’t work well at all, unless you let people keep the money year after year and build up a kitty and then integrate it properly into real health care costs they just only add millimeter of icing to anyones overall resources. well don’t you think all these people are creatures of the contmeporay, but obama does have a law degree from harvard and some very smart people advising him and that says something. you’d do better to say, does it even matter who is president? scary thought.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
“but I fail to see where giving the wealthy even more tax cuts is going to help people like me or you. ”
I’d use the difference to hire security that knows what you look like.
Since a majority of them already pay progressive rates way above what you or I pay its plausible that one of them might be able to employ you.
Maybe we should give you additional tax breaks so you can afford the system you’ll have to pay into for 4 years before you can even ever use it ?
This is becoming like trying to visually keep track of every snowflake that falls in a blizzard. The insanity is mind boggling.
Everytime I try to put this all together in my head so it works I have to stop for fear of going into overload and shutting down, ending up in the looney bin.
Wonder if the state will pay for it ? Its their fault.
I’m sorry, this is just the biggest freaking joke thats ever been imposed on the American people. For anyone to believe that this could actually ever work in the political atmosphere weve got today with the record of unaccountabilty our history holds has got to be fresh outta their minds or know something that the rest of the world doesnt know.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
not true micky, many of the rich pay capital gain and dividend tax rates, like 15% instead of wage rates that would be 35%. The richest people literally on wallstreet don’t even pay themselves a salary for that reason, they simply harvest capital gains at the 15% rate. they all do it.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
then they drive and fly company bought or leased vehicles and planes, pick up company owned condos and houses everywhere, free insurance of all kinds, believe me they have it wired, and then cash in a slew of stock every so often and dump it in muni bonds. they know how to do it. only us schlepps pay a third or more of our wages in taxes.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
and some of these people have their companies pay the taxes on their stocks they cash in.
December 19th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
“oh, mdelf, don’t you remember what happened when we let banks compete across state lines but the feds didn’t regulate them?”
So, you’re saying that the level of government intervention weve seen lately has done any good ?
You’re saying the institution with the highest rate of failure and missing projected budget marks is going to do a better job ?
Get real.
You b*tch about governments being police states, interviening etc and yet you’re willing to let them run everything.
I’ll bet the only reason you’re open to this is because as soon as you get your little card you’re going to hit the hospitals for everything you can as often as you can so you can get your damn tax dollars worth, arent you ?
Yeah, MDefl got it right, I just hope you head for the psych ward first
December 19th, 2009 at 5:53 pm
here’s the link, charles. Sorry about that:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-presidential-election-2012?ev_oc_grp_ids=88236
December 19th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
“not true micky, many of the rich pay capital gain and dividend tax rates, like 15% instead of wage rates that would be 35%. The richest people literally on wallstreet don’t even pay themselves a salary for that reason, they simply harvest capital gains at the 15% rate. they all do it.”
So you say but my sisters husband inhereted well and also built quite an establishment for himself.
He only sees 55 cents of every dollar he makes.
Hes one of the 5% that actually pays 50% of the countries bills.
Leave him alone already and start learning how to run a business instead of raising prices everytime you have a problem.
Thats all the freakling leftist morons know how to do.
And what the hell is this focus on Wall Street all about ? Theres plenty of people in these brackets that have never seen Wall street.
Not everyone making more than 250,000.00 dollars works on Wall street dude ! actaully I think Obama finally made the threshold 120,000.00)
They’ll attach some bullsht moral equivalency to it and then go after anyone successful.
God forbid these schucks actually try to fix something once in a while instead of the answer always being taxation. Look for waste, corruption, get rid of it. Look for inefficiency, streamline, jettison excess, etc..
But no ! Lets raise taxes, right Brian ?
It all just a bullsht way to bring in money that they dont even know what they’re going to spend on yet.
Who cares if we need these revenues or not !!
Lets just see how freaking much of it we can get away with !
Lets push him till we see what the limits are !
Right Brian ?
You guys arent going to be happy til the people snap
December 19th, 2009 at 6:37 pm
Arriba: Thanks yet I feel that site is unreliable. They had our good pal Arnold on it and he can’t even run. Also how did they get the information.
Brian:
You call us the party of no. Your party has proven that you only have one answer to out problems and that is bigger government. The Republicans have principles of small government and solving problems without government. We are the American people and were strong and smart enough to fix our own problems without begging our government to solve them for us. The reason were in this mess is, because we today have a habit of going home and watching the news to see how the government is going to solve our problems for us. When we as a people should individually solve them. You want a better education for your kids yet you don’t want to take the time and energy to give it to them, you want more money yet you want government to give you it when you should find away to make more, and when your unemployed you rely on government when you should only rely on yourself. That is the American spirit. The American spirit is the attitude you can do anything no matter how hard and how long it will take you to. Only in America. Yet this can only happen if your given the freedom from your government like what the founders intended which only than we can call themselves American. I want obama to fail the same way I wanted George W Bush to fail, because neither men wanted to bring America back to what it was designed to be. You can’t call yourself an American and believe in Barack Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
December 19th, 2009 at 6:54 pm
well I am a conservative centrist so I am not a dem or repub as a rule. I think its okay for people to beg for governmental expertise where they can find it, our military for example. there are some good departments out there and some good people. Its seems to me a self financed social insurance program isn’t such a bad idea to smooth out the booms and busts inevitable in a free economy. I have AAA for my car and don’t feel like a communist. ITs basically a club with club benifits you pay for. we with our taxes we pay for Club America. What is a college cafteria socialism? I have seen schools where they abolish them and lease the space to fast food joints and the diet turns to junk fast and you feel bloated and salted out and fatted up and it all tastes the same. I like college cafeterias. If our government is a true Club America helping us rather than hindering us it can work. I think you fail to understand the true intent of our founding fathers. They too were mostly landed gentry, business people, at the tops of their fields and they weren’t really that interested in the common folk. We have built upon their original intentions, which was to break from Britian’s finanical shennanigans and run their own concessions their own way and not pay taxes to some foriegner. They weren’t thinking about health care then. They weren’t aware of a power grid. They hadn’t a clue about giant financial institutions with global reach or who would run them. they weren’t imprisoning people for possessing some of the sauce either. there weren’t police helicopters flying over philadelphia then. it was a very different country, but they did write the bill of rights when they woke up to all the many ramifications of starting a new nation. they added civil rights riders to club america. Its still a work in progress. What you think some of those people would be someone you’d want as president today?
December 19th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
charles, I assume bookies everywhere employ the same logic as they do here; they just try to balance the betting so that they win the vig. So the odds would indicate where people worldwide are throwing their money. That would also explain why people like thune and cantor aren’t on it, since the information costs to know anything about them is so high in europe.
During the 08 campaign, the only really reliable site like this is iowa, since it’s market based but the players are almost all people in the usa, since the money you can bet is limited, I think.