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As a blockbuster scandal engulfs presumptive Democrat nominee Richard Blumenthal, who lied about his Vietnam service record, we re-examine the latest polls again. We’ll have further updates next week which are expected to show a drastic erosion of his support. Polls show that Rob Simmons ahead of WWE executive Linda McMahon for the GOP nomination but it is still early. One of them will challenge state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal in the general election.

My job is to present you with the numbers that have been polled to date and to analyze that data. Other posts will analyze the race itself, along with the candidates and their positions. Since I am so familiar with the Senate race in Connecticut, I thought that I would start with this contest.

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The Democrat primary in CT is already settled. Richard Blumenthal is the Democrat candidate. Linda McMahon is the GOP candidate. Now on to the CT general election polls:

Quinnipiac and Rasmussen have polled Rob Simmons vs. Chris Dodd. Daily Kos has polled Foley vs. Dodd.



The overall numbers are strikingly similar.

By looking at this data, it is very clear that Rob Simmons is polling in the mid- to high-40% range and that Chris Dodd can’t get above 39% on any of these polls.

The December 7, 2009 Rasmussen poll had a large percentage (6.84%) for “other.”

The September 10, 2009 Rasmussen poll had a smaller percentage (5.30%) for “other.”



When the Daily Kos did their survey the support for Senator Dodd was similar, although it was a little higher.

Now, let’s see the crosstabs for all of these polls.

An incredibly consistent set of numbers. Obviously, self-identified republicans prefer the republican Rob Simmons or Foley. The poll results all show a significantly strong support for Rob Simmons.

The December 7, 2009 Rasmussen poll had a large percentage (8.52%) for “other.”

The September 10, 2009 Rasmussen poll had a smaller percentage (1.58%) for “other.”

These numbers show much less support for Senator Dodd among self-identified democrats. Consistently, three times as many democrats support Rob Simmons as republicans support Chris Dodd.

This is not good news. Unless Senator Dodd can shore up his own base, he has little to no chance of winning in 2010.

Independents clearly prefer Rob Simmons by approximately a 2 to 1 ratio. Unless Chris Dodd can start winning over self-identified independents, he has very little to no chance of winning in 2010.

The December 7, 2009 Rasmussen poll had a large percentage (11.63%) for “other.”

The September 10, 2009 Rasmussen poll had a smaller percentage (6.43%) for “other.”

What an incredible lack of support for Senator Dodd among men. Again, we can see a 2 to 1 ratio in support of Rob Simmons.

The December 7, 2009 Rasmussen poll had a large percentage (8.62%) for “other.”

The September 10, 2009 Rasmussen poll had a smaller percentage (4.54%) for “other.”

Now, the results are not consistent. Quinnipiac shows some support for Rob Simmons while two surveys in September (Rasmussen and Quinnipiac) do not. It appears as if the small surge for Senator Dodd in September has faded.

The December 7, 2009 Rasmussen poll had 5.36% for “other.”

The September 10, 2009 Rasmussen poll had 5.98% for “other.”





So, can we make any conclusions from these polls? I would say that we could.

1. Republican support for Rob Simmons is much stronger than democratic support for Chris Dodd.

4. Support by women is closer to 50:50. There is some evidence that shows women starting to prefer Rob Simmons ever so slightly. The caveat, however, is that this difference is well within the MOE.

Once more data appears, I will update this post.