Here is your live viewing thread for the Jon Corzine, Chris Christie New Jersey governor election. Exit Polls and winner declared here on election day, Tuesday November 3rd 2009, the final day of a long campaign race. Watch the live returns with us!
Winner update:
Right Pundits calls Chris Christie the winner of the New Jersey governor race. Time of call: 7:15pm PT / 8:15pm ET.
This is technically a three-way election race between Jon Corzine and Christie, with a 3rd party independent candidate Christopher Daggett playing the role of spoiler. Without Daggett in the race Chris Christie would be the runaway winner against Corzine.
In case you were wondering there is no runoff election in New Jersey as only a plurality of the vote is required rather than an outright majority. Based on pre-election polls we can safely predict that none of the three candidates will have a majority of the popular vote.
Issues in New Jersey include the president’s rising unpopularity in the country, local corruption in Governor Corzine’s administration, miserable employment, high taxes, and our politicians’ unwelcome focus on healthcare during a time of national economic crisis. Put simply this election is mainly about a leadership vacuum both instate and nationally.
You can read more here and here and here.
Unemployment in New Jersey is 10% and property taxes are through the roof to pay for Democrat programs which suddenly look like bad policy to the average voter. The campaign has been unusually toxic even for NJ. At one point Corzine called Christie “fat” while Obama himself has further polarized the race with over-the-top partisan rhetoric.
So what do those polls look like today? Here is a summary of the up to the minute very latest New Jersey polls for the governor’s race.
Tuesday Polls:
[will be updated on November 3rd, election day.]Monday, Friday, Thursday Polls:
Quinnipiac: Christie 42, Corzine 40, Daggett 12 (Christie +2) SurveyUSA: Christie 45, Corzine 42, Daggett 10 (Christie +3) PPP: Christie 47, Corzine 41, Daggett 11 (Christie +6) Rasmussen Reports: Christie 46, Corzine 43, Daggett 8 (Christie +3) Daily Kos/R2000: Christie 42, Corzine 41, Daggett 14 (Christie +1) Democracy Corps: Corzine 41, Christie 37, Daggett 15 (Corzine +4) Fairleigh Dickinson Poll: Corzine 43, Christie 41, Daggett 8 (Corzine +2) Stockton/Zogby: Christie 39, Corzine 40, Daggett 14 (Corzine +1)
You can see that the race is neck and neck considering the margin of error in all the polls. Based on experience watching New Jersey races, it is fair to say that Democrat support tends to be understated in pre-election polls, a fact which has caused the GOP to frequently waste precious resources in the state.
So we are hard-pressed to believe that this race is truly a tossup. We will be surprised to declare Chris Christie winner of the New Jersey governor race, but it is certainly possible given Corzine miserable standing as an incumbent in the low 40’s.
Join us for live coverage of the Corzine Christie New Jersey governor election where we will present exit poll date and declare the New Jersey election winner well before the networks decide they have run enough commercials.
**** Update ****
Good news so far for both the NJ and NY race. In the New York race PPP has Hoffman up pretty big with independents and in NJ turnout in the counties that McCain carried is up heavy and it’s low in traditional Democrat precincts. In fact, the turn out is about 2-1 accord to some estimates. I’ll have more as I get it.
New Jersey Governor Winner, Results (Live)
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:46 pm
If Corzine loses his criminal ass the big winner will be Sarah Palin.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Tomorrow will be a night for the Republicans. Atlanta might be getting it’s first Republican mayor,Bloomberg although secretly a Dem has it, Virgina we’ll own by tomorrow, New Jersey will have a Republican, and as for Ny 23 district even if we lose we’ll get a liberal Republican out so next time we can take the seat with a real Republican.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Hope you’re right.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:46 pm
I remember that guy. He was such a cheat for Gore, I could not believe it.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:48 pm
The dems are master at fraud and acorn is out in force in NJ.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:50 pm
there are already some 3,000 absentee ballots where the signatures don’t match. Reports of acorn workers going to hospitals to get absentee votes filled out. It is pathetic how the dems cheat.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:10 pm
i think the dems win NJ
the fraud will be obvious in that case
in fact, i predict it will actually harm obama, because initially it will be played up as a dramatic dem win, and that will bring attention to acorn fraud — even if it was not true in this particular race — and obama will be seen as corrupt.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:21 am
[...] Search 2009 Election Live Results! Virginia Governor New Jersey Governor New York 23rd Reader Predictions Loading… @import [...]
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:42 am
The biggest problem with NJ politicians is that most that are registered as Republicans are really democrats in disguise. Just ask Marge Roukema. She’s changed her affiliation 3 or 4 times just so she could get on the ballot.
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:46 am
I think the Dems will pull this out in NJ simply because of the political leanings of that state; NJ is a state where “yellow dog democtrat” voters reign supreme; that is they would vote for a Yellow Dog before voting for anyone with an R in front of their names. With that said, we cannot underestimate then number of Independents and Chrisite’s lead in that group. Consequently, I think Daggett pulls the necessary 3-4% Christie would have needed to defeat Corzine.
At the end of the day, no matter what happens tonight the Obama Administration will downplay the results…but wasnt this the same administration that touted Jim Tedisco’s defeat in a Republican Election in New York State as testiment to the popularity of the President and his policies? Leave it to Team Obama to have their cake and eat it too.
Can anyone tell me when we will have the first set of data???
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:56 am
I have never been polled and I’m a cradle New Jersian who voted for Christie today.
I have no idea who works up these stats, but I can tell you that I haven’t seen one Corzine sign in my travels.
I certainly hope that Corzine doesn’t win. Enough people I know have had to move out of this State already and I may be next if he gets re-elected. I’ve had enough of this nonsense.
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:59 am
Thank You Michelle!!! Now I just hope that thousands more of your fellow New Jersians follwo your lead….I unfortunately am in Chicago so I cannot add to the Christie vote total, although I would in a heartbeat.
Would you say there is a anti-corzine sentiment pervading the New Jersey landscape?
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:08 am
If Christie wins, anyone who wants to crow about it being an anti-Obama vote will be wrong. Corzine is VERY unpopular, and has neither charisma nor legislative success. This will be an anti-Corzine vote, and the only winning combination for Corzine is machine Democrats combined with Daggett siphoning off some Independent votes.
It’s actually inconsequential who wins. None of these guys has the guts to fix New Jersey’s problems. Christie is a ‘big man on campus’ type who will enjoy spreading the largesse to his buddies, but he has no experience at governing. Corzine is already a failure and Daggett is a nobody.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:12 am
But yet harken back to the special election in upstate new york when, shortly after Obama passed his stimulus bill, Jim Tedisco the Republican was defeated in a overwhelmingly Republican district. That was hailed as a sign that the people loved Obama’s policies.
Now you are trying to minimize the damage?? Face it, this race was one where Obama attached his credibility and influence to Corzine, if Corzine loses it makes the Administration look bad; also many of the “Blue Dogs” will think if a democrat can lose in a blue state like NJ, what will happen to those who represent inherently conservative districts
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:23 am
good analysis Dr. T.
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:35 am
Dr. Thomas - I have been thinking the same thing. A year ago everyone was using Virginia and other Republican-leaning states as evidence of Obama’s vast reach of support. now that Virginia is going the other way, those same people are writing off its significance.
As far as New Jersey goes, there’s no getting around the significance of a Republican even coming close in that DEEP BLUE state. What would people be saying if Utah elected a Democrat governor? They would be saying that it is a measure of how much influence the Democrats have, right? Same thing in NJ. If a Republican even comes close then it must say something…
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:08 am
I just hope we can score a major upset in NJ! That would put the frosting on the cake of a beautiful Tuesday night SWEEP!!!
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:52 am
What site do you use to get your polling data?
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:17 pm
I’m a life long NJ resident- voting for 34 years. Today was the first time I voted the Republican ticket!
I changed because my views on abortion and gay marriage are now more conservative, and I think the Health care bill will end up leaving abortion funding up to individual states.
The cost to live in this state is ridiculous as well. I’d like to benefit from tax cuts now that I’m out of the dark side!
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Does Anyone have any data yet?? Polls close in about 4 hours
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Every conservative in America is watching this election. It almost seems as important as the presidential election. If the Democrats win it, it will no doubt be for the same reason voter (Acorn) fraud.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:59 pm
@Steve K: Just curious, how have your views on gay marriage changed, and what was the catalyst for that change?
I can see the conservative opposition to abortion — there’s an argument to be made that a true victim exists. But gay marriage? Isn’t that a personal, private matter that the government should stay out of? Other than the rhetorically meaningless “values” conservatism, what basis is there for interference into 2 adults’ marriage decision?
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:04 pm
As a lifelong resident and registered Democrat I am voting for Christie today in hopes that we can send Corzine back to Chicago.
Keep a look at for him Dr. T
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Wow. How times have changed. At this time last year, Obama’s army of trolls was spreading false information on every exit poll site.
No longer.
I guess his army has fizzled.
Obamania is over.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:12 pm
What is this anyway, a Republican campaign site? I am a native New Jersey person, independent, but I can already see that Mr. Corzine will pull this out. If you were raised here you would know that even thought our citizens offer conservative viewpoints, in the end we almost always vote democratic. This is because most of New Jersey workers are pragmatic: they can see the value of hard work and the dollar, but in the end also see the value of a progressive party (literally). Native New Jersey people see Mr. Corzine as an interloper in state politics. We prefer our politicians to be well seasoned with years of service. While he was an average to better US Senator, he has failed to recognize how important it is to keep a benevolent side to the public as Governor. In spite of him, NJ will vote to keep the Democratic administration.