Scott Rasmussen takes monthly polls that cover many different topics. Today, I would like to address the topic on President Obama and the public’s opinion of his leadership.
There are a series of charts below. They include data from each month since the inauguration.
The first table in each category combines “excellent” and “good” together as well as “fair” and “poor”. The difference is a significant column at which to look.
The second table in each category compares “excellent” and “good” with “poor”. If the difference column in this table is in the negative, then there are problems with the perception of the President within that subgroup.
The third table in each category is even more specific. It compares “excellent” with “poor”. The difference in this table is identical to the “approval index” that Scott Rasmussen uses for Job Approval.
The data is fascinating. Analysis will follow each table.
Leadership (Overall)
Time Span : Excellent / Fair / Difference
Time Span : & Good / & Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 63.33% / 32.78% / 30.55%
Feb 26 - 27 : 55.47% / 42.54% / 12.93%
Mar 26 - 27 : 54.84% / 43.99% / 10.85%
May 07 - 08 : 55.13% / 44.33% / 10.80%
Jun 03 - 04 : 50.21% / 49.20% / 1.01%
Jul 08 - 09 : 47.76% / 51.19% / -3.43%
Aug 07 - 08 : 45.54% / 53.81% / -8.27%
Sep 06 - 07 : 47.86% / 51.27% / -3.41%
Sep 26 - 27 : 49.00% / 51.00% / -2.00%
Oct 24 - 25 : 43.37% / 55.91% / -12.54%
This table shows some interesting details. It is quite obvious that perception of the President’s leadership skills was very strong immediately after his inauguration. As soon as the debate turned to Healthcare Reform, the perception of the President’s leadership skills dropped fairly quickly. From looking at this data, it is clear that the perception of the President’s leadership skills is in the low to mid 40% range. If November shows a return to the high 40% range, then I will adjust my estimate.
Leadership (Overall)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Time Span : & Good / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 63.33% / 15.65% / 47.68%
Feb 26 - 27 : 55.47% / 23.81% / 31.66%
Mar 26 - 27 : 54.84% / 26.16% / 28.68%
May 07 - 08 : 55.13% / 23.64% / 31.49%
Jun 03 - 04 : 50.21% / 27.29% / 22.92%
Jul 08 - 09 : 47.76% / 34.41% / 13.35%
Aug 07 - 08 : 45.54% / 32.27% / 13.27%
Sep 06 - 07 : 47.86% / 37.14% / 10.72%
Sep 26 - 27 : 49.00% / 33.00% / 16.00%
Oct 24 - 25 : 43.37% / 36.90% / 6.47%
This table shows something a little more worrisome. The negative perception of the President’s leadership skills is increasing. The “poor” category is near it’s high water mark. Additional, the difference between these two categories is in single digits. If and when this difference reaches negative territory, then the President may be in even more trouble.
Leadership (Overall)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 45.70% / 15.65% / 30.05%
Feb 26 - 27 : 36.73% / 23.81% / 12.92%
Mar 26 - 27 : 32.49% / 26.16% / 6.33%
May 07 - 08 : 32.07% / 23.64% / 8.43%
Jun 03 - 04 : 32.52% / 27.29% / 5.23%
Jul 08 - 09 : 31.70% / 34.41% / -2.71%
Aug 07 - 08 : 28.32% / 32.27% / -3.95%
Sep 06 - 07 : 29.47% / 37.14% / -7.67%
Sep 26 - 27 : 35.00% / 33.00% / 2.00%
Oct 24 - 25 : 26.91% / 36.90% / -9.99%
This data shows some significant concerns. The “approval index” regarding leadership percepions has been in the negative territory for four of the last five surveys. In fact, the most recent survey shows the lowest total to date for “excellent” and an “index” that is within 0.01% of negative double-digits. This is an ominous sign.
Now, let’s look at the subgroups. First, men.
Leadership (Men)
Time Span : Excellent / Fair / Difference
Time Span : & Good / & Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 58.85% / 37.46% / 21.39%
Feb 26 - 27 : 49.07% / 48.84% / 0.23%
Mar 26 - 27 : 53.85% / 45.25% / 8.60%
May 07 - 08 : 49.75% / 49.92% / -0.17%
Jun 03 - 04 : 44.54% / 55.06% / -10.52%
Jul 08 - 09 : 48.59% / 51.32% / -2.73%
Aug 07 - 08 : 43.37% / 56.48% / -13.11%
Sep 06 - 07 : 49.62% / 49.01% / 0.61%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 42.41% / 57.16% / -14.75%
This data clearly shows that men started out with relatively strong support. It quickly began to fade and has decreased to the low- to mid-40% range.
Leadership (Men)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Time Span : & Good / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 58.85% / 20.27% / 38.58%
Feb 26 - 27 : 49.07% / 28.59% / 20.48%
Mar 26 - 27 : 53.85% / 31.63% / 22.22%
May 07 - 08 : 49.75% / 27.58% / 22.17%
Jun 03 - 04 : 44.54% / 30.15% / 14.39%
Jul 08 - 09 : 48.59% / 37.00% / 11.59%
Aug 07 - 08 : 43.37% / 34.81% / 8.56%
Sep 06 - 07 : 49.62% / 35.93% / 13.69%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 42.41% / 38.42% / 3.99%
This data clearly shows an increase in the “poor” category. It has reached an all-time high with an “index” that is approaching 0%. If the “difference” does go into negative territory, then, as in the prior example, this would be even more bad news for the President and the perception of his leadership skills.
Leadership (Men)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 39.81% / 20.27% / 19.54%
Feb 26 - 27 : 29.11% / 28.59% / 0.52%
Mar 26 - 27 : 27.41% / 31.63% / -4.22%
May 07 - 08 : 27.84% / 27.58% / 0.26%
Jun 03 - 04 : 32.28% / 30.15% / 2.13%
Jul 08 - 09 : 30.54% / 37.00% / -6.46%
Aug 07 - 08 : 25.53% / 34.81% / -9.28%
Sep 06 - 07 : 28.99% / 35.93% / -6.94%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 27.83% / 38.42% / -10.59%
This data clearly shows a significant trend as well. The “approval index” has reached negative double-digits. This is so close to job approval, it is amazing.
Now, let’s look at women.
Leadership (Women)
Time Span : Excellent / Fair / Difference
Time Span : & Good / & Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 67.32% / 28.64% / 38.68%
Feb 26 - 27 : 61.55% / 36.56% / 24.99%
Mar 26 - 27 : 55.77% / 42.80% / 12.97%
May 07 - 08 : 60.01% / 39.28% / 20.73%
Jun 03 - 04 : 55.34% / 43.90% / 11.44%
Jul 08 - 09 : 47.01% / 51.07% / -4.06%
Aug 07 - 08 : 47.59% / 51.33% / -3.74%
Sep 06 - 07 : 46.19% / 53.45% / -7.26%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 44.28% / 54.74% / -10.46%
This data clearly shows an increase in the “fair & poor” category and a decrease in the “excellent & good” category. It has reached an all-time high with an “index” that is in the negative double-digit range.
Leadership (Women)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Time Span : & Good / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 67.32% / 11.55% / 55.77%
Feb 26 - 27 : 61.55% / 19.27% / 42.28%
Mar 26 - 27 : 55.77% / 20.96% / 34.81%
May 07 - 08 : 60.01% / 20.08% / 39.93%
Jun 03 - 04 : 55.34% / 24.70% / 30.64%
Jul 08 - 09 : 47.01% / 32.05% / 14.96%
Aug 07 - 08 : 47.59% / 29.90% / 17.69%
Sep 06 - 07 : 46.19% / 38.31% / 7.88%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 44.28% / 35.46% / 8.82%
This data shows something else. The “poor” category is approximately the same as for men. The last two surveys that include crosstabs flip-flop the “poor” percentages for men and women. The same can be said for “excellent & good”.
Leadership (Women)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 50.94% / 11.55% / 39.39%
Feb 26 - 27 : 43.97% / 19.27% / 24.70%
Mar 26 - 27 : 37.31% / 20.96% / 16.35%
May 07 - 08 : 35.91% / 20.08% / 15.83%
Jun 03 - 04 : 32.75% / 24.70% / 8.05%
Jul 08 - 09 : 32.76% / 32.05% / 0.71%
Aug 07 - 08 : 30.95% / 29.90% / 1.05%
Sep 06 - 07 : 29.93% / 38.31% / -8.38%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 26.02% / 35.46% / -9.44%
This data shows the identical trends as men. The “excellent” category is decreasing rather quickly and the “poor” category is in the mid- to high-30% range. The “approval index” is approaching negative double-digits. This, as in the other instances, is not good news regarding the public’s perception of the President’s Leadership skills.
Now, let’s look at independents.
Leadership (Independents)
Time Span : Excellent / Fair / Difference
Time Span : & Good / & Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 57.98% / 36.35% / 21.63%
Feb 26 - 27 : 51.19% / 47.57% / 3.62%
Mar 26 - 27 : 42.84% / 55.32% / -12.48%
May 07 - 08 : 46.71% / 53.23% / -6.52%
Jun 03 - 04 : 37.45% / 56.68% / -19.23%
Jul 08 - 09 : 38.40% / 61.52% / -23.12%
Aug 07 - 08 : 38.61% / 59.92% / -21.31%
Sep 06 - 07 : 40.65% / 58.91% / -18.26%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 36.32% / 63.57% / -27.25%
This data is a little different that the other tables. The drop in “excellent & good” occurred earlier. Although it has reached a new low this month, the last five surveys with crosstabs are all within the MOE. “Fair & Poor” is increasing, although it is also within the MOE.
If the data continues to decrease next month, then we do have rather significant trends among independents.
Leadership (Independents)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Time Span : & Good / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 57.98% / 17.38% / 40.60%
Feb 26 - 27 : 51.19% / 26.14% / 25.05%
Mar 26 - 27 : 42.84% / 31.17% / 11.67%
May 07 - 08 : 46.71% / 31.13% / 15.58%
Jun 03 - 04 : 37.45% / 31.60% / 5.85%
Jul 08 - 09 : 38.40% / 37.82% / 0.58%
Aug 07 - 08 : 38.61% / 35.26% / 3.35%
Sep 06 - 07 : 40.65% / 41.63% / -0.98%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 36.32% / 39.77% / -3.45%
This data shows that “poor” in increasing. It peaked in early September but is well within the MOE for the most recent survey. More ominous news for the President.
Leadership (Independents)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 44.67% / 17.38% / 27.29%
Feb 26 - 27 : 25.52% / 26.14% / -0.62%
Mar 26 - 27 : 25.76% / 31.17% / -5.41%
May 07 - 08 : 24.90% / 31.13% / -6.23%
Jun 03 - 04 : 26.54% / 31.60% / -5.06%
Jul 08 - 09 : 22.70% / 37.82% / -15.12%
Aug 07 - 08 : 19.50% / 35.26% / -15.76%
Sep 06 - 07 : 23.23% / 41.63% / -18.40%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 21.76% / 39.77% / -18.01%
Now, this data shows something significant. The “approval index” among independents is very low. It is in the negative mid- to high-teens. This data is very extremely close to job approval.
… and now republican support.
Leadership (Republican)
Time Span : Excellent / Fair / Difference
Time Span : & Good / & Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 34.11% / 60.55% / -26.44%
Feb 26 - 27 : 22.81% / 74.04% / -51.23%
Mar 26 - 27 : 26.50% / 71.85% / -45.35%
May 07 - 08 : 26.94% / 72.20% / -45.26%
Jun 03 - 04 : 19.10% / 80.16% / -61.06%
Jul 08 - 09 : 21.92% / 75.29% / -53.37%
Aug 07 - 08 : 11.09% / 88.41% / -77.32%
Sep 06 - 07 : 13.35% / 84.64% / -71.29%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 17.19% / 81.57% / -64.38%
This data shows something interesting. Many republicans approved of the President’s Leadership skills immediately after his inauguration. My interpretation is that one-third of republicans should be interpreted as “many.” However, their view of the President’s leadership changed quickly. Interestingly, their view improved in late March and early May. This was around the time that there was some evidence that the economy was improving. Job approval increased during May. The percentages dropped quickly and now, instead of one in three, it is now one in six republicans who approve of the President’s leadership skills.
Leadership (Republican)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Time Span : & Good / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 34.11% / 29.21% / 4.90%
Feb 26 - 27 : 22.81% / 42.67% / -19.86%
Mar 26 - 27 : 26.50% / 46.39% / -19.89%
May 07 - 08 : 26.94% / 38.41% / -11.47%
Jun 03 - 04 : 19.10% / 46.69% / -27.59%
Jul 08 - 09 : 21.92% / 55.85% / -33.93%
Aug 07 - 08 : 11.09% / 57.14% / -46.05%
Sep 06 - 07 : 13.35% / 68.04% / -54.69%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 17.19% / 65.55% / -48.36%
This data is fascinating. Immediately after the inauguration less than one in three republicans thought that the President’s leadership skills were “poor.” This quickly rose to one in two by June and is now two out of every three republicans who consider the President’s leadership skills as “poor.”
Leadership (Republican)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 13.14% / 29.21% / -16.07%
Feb 26 - 27 : 10.02% / 42.67% / -32.65%
Mar 26 - 27 : 9.42% / 46.39% / -36.97%
May 07 - 08 : 10.89% / 38.41% / -27.52%
Jun 03 - 04 : 7.08% / 46.69% / -39.61%
Jul 08 - 09 : 12.49% / 55.85% / -43.36%
Aug 07 - 08 : 2.34% / 57.14% / -54.80%
Sep 06 - 07 : 4.94% / 68.04% / -63.10%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 9.04% / 65.55% / -56.51%
Wow. The percentage of republicans that thought that the President’s leadership skills were “excellent” hasn’t changed much since the inauguration. August and September showed significant decreases in the “excellent” category. There appeared to be no leadership by the President on Healthcare. “Poor” has reached a plateau of the mid- to high-60% range.
… and now democratic support.
Leadership (Democrats)
Time Span : Excellent / Fair / Difference
Time Span : & Good / & Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 90.75% / 7.90% / 82.85%
Feb 26 - 27 : 85.25% / 13.15% / 72.10%
Mar 26 - 27 : 85.53% / 14.16% / 71.37%
May 07 - 08 : 84.59% / 14.84% / 69.75%
Jun 03 - 04 : 81.54% / 18.20% / 63.34%
Jul 08 - 09 : 76.41% / 23.36% / 53.05%
Aug 07 - 08 : 81.98% / 17.94% / 64.04%
Sep 06 - 07 : 82.26% / 17.55% / 64.71%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 73.06% / 26.21% / 46.85%
This data shows some interesting trends. Incredibly strong support of the President’s leadership skills has waned. It is now in the mid- to high-70% range with a possibility of the low 80% range. “Fair & Poor” has steadily increased to one in four. The question is this: is the percentage for “fair & poor” closer to 25% or 18%? We may need to wait another month to find out.
Leadership (Democrats)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Time Span : & Good / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 90.75% / 3.52% / 87.23%
Feb 26 - 27 : 85.25% / 6.72% / 78.53%
Mar 26 - 27 : 85.53% / 6.80% / 78.73%
May 07 - 08 : 84.59% / 6.04% / 78.55%
Jun 03 - 04 : 81.54% / 8.12% / 73.42%
Jul 08 - 09 : 76.41% / 13.63% / 62.78%
Aug 07 - 08 : 81.98% / 7.63% / 74.35%
Sep 06 - 07 : 82.26% / 7.76% / 74.50%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 73.06% / 8.37% / 64.69%
This data shows that “poor” is consistently in the high single-digits.
Leadership (Democrats)
Time Span : Excellent / Poor / Difference
Jan 29 - 30 : 72.52% / 3.52% / 69.00%
Feb 26 - 27 : 66.85% / 6.72% / 60.13%
Mar 26 - 27 : 55.29% / 6.80% / 48.49%
May 07 - 08 : 54.80% / 6.04% / 48.76%
Jun 03 - 04 : 57.88% / 8.12% / 49.76%
Jul 08 - 09 : 54.41% / 13.63% / 40.78%
Aug 07 - 08 : 58.74% / 7.63% / 51.11%
Sep 06 - 07 : 54.71% / 7.76% / 46.95%
Sep 26 - 27 : unavail. / unavail. / unavail.
Oct 24 - 25 : 47.44% / 8.37% / 39.07%
This data shows a slow decrease in support that says that the President’s leadership skills are “excellent.”
The question is: how low will the “excellent” category go.
Only time will tell.
November 1st, 2009 at 1:25 pm
I look forward to your reactions.
Frank