Next Tuesday is a significant election.

There are two gubernatorial races of note. Virginia is a given. The republican should win this race easily. Every polling firm is showing a double-digit lead. Tuesday night should be a short night in Virginia.

New Jersey is another matter. The race in New Jersey is between Chris Christie, Jon Corzine (inc.) and the independent Daggett. Scott Rasmussen has been polling this state over the course of the last several months. Below are some charts that include two sets of data. The first set is the percentages for each candidate before pushing for leaners. The second set of data is the percentages including the leaners.

This first set of numbers is often considered the “certain” voters.

The second set of numbers includes leaners.

The results are interesting.

New Jersey Governor
Overall (no leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 46.55% / 35.58% / 6.97%
9-Sep-09 : 37.99% / 33.66% / 8.80%
21-Sep-09 : 43.15% / 38.66% / 7.46%
14-Oct-09 : 38.23% / 37.68% / 16.03%
19-Oct-09 : 36.46% / 36.80% / 15.77%
26-Oct-09 : 41.95% / 38.08% / 13.74%
29-Oct-09 : 42.25% / 39.49% / 11.75%

New Jersey Governor
Overall (with leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 49.78% / 41.82% / 1.78%
9-Sep-09 : 46.50% / 37.86% / 5.56%
21-Sep-09 : 48.06% / 41.03% / 5.64%
14-Oct-09 : 44.73% / 41.31% / 9.16%
19-Oct-09 : 41.11% / 39.42% / 11.16%
26-Oct-09 : 46.48% / 43.03% / 6.64%
29-Oct-09 : 46.29% / 43.13% / 7.92%

Notice the patterns. Chris Christie had a poor early October. His percentages went down drastically. Many of the voters moved toward Daggett. Corzine’s support stayed basically the same. Daggett’s support improved. Some negative advertising by Christie against Daggett appears to have worked. The support for Daggett is decreasing.

Let’s look at the subgroups.

New Jersey Governor
Republicans (no leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 83.70% / 7.59% / 2.58%
9-Sep-09 : 83.11% / 4.31% / 5.06%
21-Sep-09 : 84.65% / 7.72% / 3.79%
14-Oct-09 : 67.65% / 18.26% / 12.86%
19-Oct-09 : 71.56% / 5.34% / 16.64%
26-Oct-09 : 80.44% / 6.94% / 7.83%
29-Oct-09 : 81.05% / 11.14% / 4.65%

New Jersey Governor
Republicans (with leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 85.35% / 8.25% / 0.92%
9-Sep-09 : 88.20% / 7.99% / 1.09%
21-Sep-09 : 87.04% / 8.44% / 2.49%
14-Oct-09 : 73.70% / 18.71% / 6.36%
19-Oct-09 : 81.53% / 5.83% / 9.16%
26-Oct-09 : 85.31% / 7.79% / 4.48%
29-Oct-09 : 83.61% / 11.40% / 3.70%

There appears to have been some lessening of support for Christie in mid-October. This support is returning, though. Corzine’s support surprisingly increased in the last week. This is most likely statistical noise.




New Jersey Governor
Democrats (no leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 19.47% / 61.81% / 6.25%
9-Sep-09 : 7.72% / 54.43% / 5.00%
21-Sep-09 : 10.53% / 69.15% / 10.42%
14-Oct-09 : 14.93% / 59.06% / 16.09%
19-Oct-09 : 12.69% / 65.47% / 12.43%
26-Oct-09 : 10.75% / 69.83% / 13.73%
29-Oct-09 : 14.01% / 67.38% / 11.46%

New Jersey Governor
Democrats (with leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 21.05% / 70.94% / 0.56%
9-Sep-09 : 20.38% / 60.12% / 2.07%
21-Sep-09 : 12.56% / 73.39% / 8.33%
14-Oct-09 : 19.74% / 65.09% / 9.39%
19-Oct-09 : 13.59% / 70.31% / 9.56%
26-Oct-09 : 12.91% / 77.10% / 5.53%
29-Oct-09 : 16.57% / 71.83% / 8.38%

Relatively stable numbers for both men. Christie has more democratic support than Corzine has republican support.




New Jersey Governor
Independents (no leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 52.41% / 21.94% / 12.46%
9-Sep-09 : 47.22% / 25.76% / 19.04%
21-Sep-09 : 53.44% / 21.21% / 6.42%
14-Oct-09 : 44.69% / 22.08% / 19.96%
19-Oct-09 : 38.09% / 24.12% / 19.99%
26-Oct-09 : 48.76% / 22.55% / 20.10%
29-Oct-09 : 58.46% / 14.99% / 18.26%

New Jersey Governor
Independents (with leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 59.84% / 29.17% / 4.56%
9-Sep-09 : 51.79% / 27.85% / 15.97%
21-Sep-09 : 65.44% / 22.25% / 4.51%
14-Oct-09 : 54.97% / 25.20% / 12.32%
19-Oct-09 : 43.22% / 25.45% / 15.58%
26-Oct-09 : 56.59% / 28.32% / 10.66%
29-Oct-09 : 66.34% / 20.12% / 10.70%

An increase in support for Christie recently. The support that had faded has returned among independents.




New Jersey Governor
Men (no leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 57.11% / 28.72% / 7.19%
9-Sep-09 : 42.78% / 29.19% / 9.99%
21-Sep-09 : 44.42% / 40.06% / 5.83%
14-Oct-09 : 43.24% / 32.26% / 18.14%
19-Oct-09 : 47.44% / 33.46% / 14.86%
26-Oct-09 : 47.32% / 33.40% / 14.36%
29-Oct-09 : 45.08% / 36.90% / 11.55%

New Jersey Governor
Men (with leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 59.53% / 37.68% / 0.77%
9-Sep-09 : 50.86% / 30.67% / 8.08%
21-Sep-09 : 49.20% / 41.02% / 4.07%
14-Oct-09 : 49.86% / 35.40% / 11.75%
19-Oct-09 : 51.12% / 35.75% / 10.61%
26-Oct-09 : 49.80% / 37.35% / 8.90%
29-Oct-09 : 49.18% / 40.05% / 8.66%

Consistent support for both candidates.




New Jersey Governor
Women (no leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 37.36% / 41.54% / 6.77%
9-Sep-09 : 33.78% / 37.57% / 7.77%
21-Sep-09 : 42.13% / 37.55% / 8.76%
14-Oct-09 : 34.53% / 41.68% / 14.48%
19-Oct-09 : 27.91% / 39.41% / 16.47%
26-Oct-09 : 37.80% / 41.69% / 13.27%
29-Oct-09 : 39.73% / 41.79% / 11.93%

New Jersey Governor
Women (with leaners)
Time Span : Christie / Corzine / Daggett
25-Aug-09 : 41.30% / 45.43% / 2.65%
9-Sep-09 : 42.68% / 44.15% / 3.36%
21-Sep-09 : 47.15% / 41.04% / 6.89%
14-Oct-09 : 40.94% / 45.66% / 7.26%
19-Oct-09 : 33.32% / 42.28% / 11.59%
26-Oct-09 : 43.92% / 47.42% / 4.90%
29-Oct-09 : 43.72% / 45.88% / 7.26%

In most cases, a consistent 2% to 5% advantage for Corzine.

What is going to happen on Tuesday?

I would predict, based on Rasmussen’s data along with PPP polling, that Christie will win by approximately 2% to 3%. It will all depend on turnout.