Rasmussen weekly approval numbers have become very stable lately.

There is analysis below each table.

These tables only include the last 10 weeks of results.

Weekly results and 4-week averages are important to look at but it isn’t the only thing to analyze.

Let’s start with overall approval. The following table includes total approval and total disapproval since early October 18, 2010.

Obama Weekly Approval (Overall)

Time Span : Total / Total / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference

10/18 – 10/24/10 : 46.76% / 52.52% / -5.76%
10/25 – 10/31/10 : 46.20% / 52.85% / -6.65%
11/01 – 11/07/10 : 45.48% / 53.89% / -8.41%
11/08 – 11/14/10 : 45.47% / 53.78% / -8.31%
11/15 – 11/21/10 : 45.83% / 52.77% / -6.94%
11/22 – 11/28/10 : 46.34% / 53.37% / -7.03%
11/29 – 12/05/10 : 45.25% / 53.89% / -8.64%
12/06 – 12/12/10 : 44.73% / 53.74% / -9.01%
12/13 – 12/19/10 : 46.72% / 52.24% / -5.52%
12/20 – 12/26/10 : 47.88% / 50.99% / -3.11%

Notice the consistency from 11/1/10 to 12/12/10. At that time, we have had a small bump in the approval ratings. This aligns strongly with the deal that was cut on taxes. The approval spikes among democrats and rises somewhat among republicans. Independents stayed roughly the same.

Look at the table below:

Obama Weekly Approval (Democrats)

Time Span : Total / Total / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference

10/18 – 10/24/10 : 82.57% / 16.37% / 66.20%
10/25 – 10/31/10 : 83.66% / 15.32% / 68.34%
11/01 – 11/07/10 : 83.85% / 15.71% / 68.14%
11/08 – 11/14/10 : 82.83% / 16.82% / 66.01%
11/15 – 11/21/10 : 81.83% / 17.29% / 64.54%
11/22 – 11/28/10 : 84.00% / 15.55% / 68.45%
11/29 – 12/05/10 : 79.14% / 19.97% / 59.17%
12/06 – 12/12/10 : 79.77% / 19.86% / 59.91%
12/13 – 12/19/10 : 79.92% / 18.44% / 61.48%
12/20 – 12/26/10 : 84.52% / 15.39% / 69.13%

We will need to see whether November 22 – 28 was an outlier along with 12/20 – 26. The Holiday Season may have had something to do with these two weeks.

Look at a table for the “approval index.”




Obama Weekly Approval (Overall)

Time Span : Approval
Time Span : Index

10/18 – 10/24/10 : -14.91%
10/25 – 10/31/10 : -16.44%
11/01 – 11/07/10 : -16.72%
11/08 – 11/14/10 : -16.45%
11/15 – 11/21/10 : -14.75%
11/22 – 11/28/10 : -16.36%
11/29 – 12/05/10 : -15.38%
12/06 – 12/12/10 : -13.29%
12/13 – 12/19/10 : -15.97%
12/20 – 12/26/10 : -10.40%

An obvious outlier during 12/20 – 26.




Obama Weekly Approval (Overall, 4-week)

Time Span : Total / Total / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference

08/23 – 09/19/10 : 44.81% / 54.27% / -9.46%
08/30 – 09/26/10 : 45.32% / 53.79% / -8.47%
09/06 – 10/03/10 : 45.72% / 53.48% / -7.77%
09/13 – 10/10/10 : 46.57% / 52.61% / -6.05%
09/20 – 10/17/10 : 47.02% / 52.11% / -5.09%
09/27 – 10/24/10 : 46.78% / 52.43% / -5.66%
10/04 – 10/31/10 : 46.68% / 52.45% / -5.77%
10/11 – 11/07/10 : 46.17% / 53.06% / -6.90%
10/18 – 11/14/10 : 45.98% / 53.26% / -7.28%
10/25 – 11/21/10 : 45.75% / 53.32% / -7.58%
11/01 – 11/28/10 : 45.78% / 53.45% / -7.67%
11/08 – 12/05/10 : 45.72% / 53.45% / -7.73%
11/15 – 12/12/10 : 45.54% / 53.44% / -7.91%
11/22 – 12/19/10 : 45.76% / 53.31% / -7.55%
11/29 – 12/26/10 : 46.15% / 52.72% / -6.57%

The improvement into the 46% range was caused solely because of an improvement among democrats. If democrats return to their normal range, the 4-week averages will return to their normal range.




Obama Monthly Approval (Independents)

Time Span : Total / Total / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference

10/18 – 10/24/10 : 41.02% / 58.74% / -17.72%
10/25 – 10/31/10 : 36.20% / 62.95% / -26.75%
11/01 – 11/07/10 : 36.86% / 62.55% / -25.69%
11/08 – 11/14/10 : 38.43% / 60.70% / -22.27%
11/15 – 11/21/10 : 38.15% / 59.51% / -21.36%
11/22 – 11/28/10 : 40.17% / 59.71% / -19.54%
11/29 – 12/05/10 : 39.42% / 59.81% / -20.39%
12/06 – 12/12/10 : 36.10% / 60.25% / -24.15%
12/13 – 12/19/10 : 42.88% / 56.46% / -13.58%
12/20 – 12/26/10 : 40.79% / 56.46% / -15.67%

Very consistent with no sign of improvement with one weekly spike.




Obama Monthly Approval (Independents, 4-week)

Time Span : Total / Total / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference

09/27 – 10/24/10 : 39.58% / 59.67% / -20.10%
10/04 – 10/31/10 : 39.19% / 59.99% / -20.80%
10/11 – 11/07/10 : 38.30% / 61.05% / -22.75%
10/18 – 11/14/10 : 38.13% / 60.89% / -22.76%
10/25 – 11/21/10 : 37.41% / 61.43% / -24.02%
11/01 – 11/28/10 : 38.40% / 60.62% / -22.22%
11/08 – 12/05/10 : 39.04% / 59.93% / -20.89%
11/15 – 12/12/10 : 38.46% / 59.82% / -21.36%
11/22 – 12/19/10 : 39.64% / 59.06% / -19.42%
11/29 – 12/26/10 : 39.80% / 58.25% / -18.45%

A return to normalcy. It does appear as if 37 – 39% is the normal range for independents.




Now, men.

Obama Monthly Approval (Men)

Time Span : Total / Total / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference

10/18 – 10/24/10 : 44.52% / 54.90% / -10.38%
10/25 – 10/31/10 : 41.31% / 57.75% / -16.44%
11/01 – 11/07/10 : 39.85% / 59.45% / -19.60%
11/08 – 11/14/10 : 38.87% / 59.93% / -21.06%
11/15 – 11/21/10 : 41.85% / 55.96% / -14.11%
11/22 – 11/28/10 : 46.52% / 53.49% / -6.97%
11/29 – 12/05/10 : 44.87% / 54.24% / -9.37%
12/06 – 12/12/10 : 39.59% / 58.34% / -18.75%
12/13 – 12/19/10 : 41.19% / 57.46% / -16.27%
12/20 – 12/26/10 : 42.45% / 56.35% / -13.90%

We are very consistent since April with a slight improvement during the end of November and the beginning of December. Again, this is caused by an increase among democrats. Non-democratic men just don’t like this man A LOT. We will need to monitor.

Let’s look at the four-week trends.




Obama Monthly Approval (Men, 4-week)

Time Span : Total / Total / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference

09/27 – 10/24/10 : 43.24% / 55.98% / -12.75%
10/04 – 10/31/10 : 42.99% / 56.11% / -13.12%
10/11 – 11/07/10 : 42.15% / 57.02% / -14.87%
10/18 – 11/14/10 : 41.28% / 57.60% / -16.32%
10/25 – 11/21/10 : 40.47% / 58.27% / -17.80%
11/01 – 11/28/10 : 41.77% / 57.21% / -15.44%
11/08 – 12/05/10 : 43.03% / 55.91% / -12.88%
11/15 – 12/12/10 : 43.21% / 55.51% / -12.30%
11/22 – 12/19/10 : 43.04% / 55.88% / -12.84%
11/29 – 12/26/10 : 42.03% / 56.60% / -14.57%

No significant improvement. There was a small uptick but it appeared to be among democrats only. Notice that it is returning to LOW 40% range. Let’s continue to monitor.




Obama Monthly Approval (Women)

Time Span : Total / Total / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference

10/18 – 10/24/10 : 48.83% / 50.33% / -1.50%
10/25 – 10/31/10 : 50.67% / 48.38% / 2.29%
11/01 – 11/07/10 : 50.62% / 48.81% / 1.81%
11/08 – 11/14/10 : 51.29% / 48.37% / 2.92%
11/15 – 11/21/10 : 49.36% / 47.93% / 1.43%
11/22 – 11/28/10 : 46.18% / 53.28% / -7.10%
11/29 – 12/05/10 : 45.60% / 53.58% / -7.98%
12/06 – 12/12/10 : 49.37% / 49.59% / -0.22%
12/13 – 12/19/10 : 51.71% / 47.53% / 4.18%
12/20 – 12/26/10 : 52.82% / 46.10% / 6.72%

Is the increase over the last two weeks a new trend or statistical noise? Let’s monitor.






Obama Monthly Approval (Women, 4-week)

Time Span : Total / Total / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference

09/27 – 10/24/10 : 50.03% / 49.17% / 0.87%
10/04 – 10/31/10 : 50.06% / 49.10% / 0.96%
10/11 – 11/07/10 : 49.84% / 49.45% / 0.39%
10/18 – 11/14/10 : 50.15% / 48.76% / 1.39%
10/25 – 11/21/10 : 50.49% / 48.37% / 2.11%
11/01 – 11/28/10 : 49.36% / 49.60% / -0.24%
11/08 – 12/05/10 : 48.11% / 50.79% / -2.68%
11/15 – 12/12/10 : 47.63% / 51.10% / -3.47%
11/22 – 12/19/10 : 48.22% / 51.00% / -2.78%
11/29 – 12/26/10 : 49.88% / 49.20% / 0.67%

A very consistent range. Let’s monitor.

Interesting numbers.

So, when all of this data is put together, there appears to several things of note:


1. Approval by women has fluctuated around the 50% barrier. It will, more than likely, continue to fluctuate within a small window of 49% to 51% (for the course of a week … not daily numbers).
2. Approval by independents is stabilizing within the 38% to 40% range, however it may be a wee bit higher.
3. Approval by men had increased ever so slightly, however they are returning to their normal range. Men are consistently 9% to 10% less than women with regards to approval.