There is continued stability today with “job approval.”
The nicest part of doing this job is when my thoughts are confirmed by data from other sources. The data from Fox News, Quinnipiac and PPP clearly confirms the downward trends within the data.
We have several new records.
1. All-time low for the 30-day trend for the “approval index” … -10.75% !!!!!!
2. All-time low for the 30-day trend for overall approval for men … 43.74% !!!!!!
3. All-time low for the 30-day trend for overall approval index for men … -11.68% !!!!!!
4. Third time that the 30-day trend for overall approval for men has been less than 44%!!!!!!
You may access this data via the links below.
This page on political polls and analysis will be updated daily so bookmark it and return frequently for updated information. The data will grow over time to include sections on key 2010 Senate race polls, 2012 presidential polls, and the data you see today.
What we have now is an analysis of Rasmussen data as it pertains to Barack Obama’s job approval rating on a 3-day basis and on a 7-day basis, public opinion of his performance on the Economy and National Security, healthcare weekly updates, the generic congressional ballot, trust on the issues on ten issues and trust on the issues regarding healthcare alone.
Recent updates are highlighted in red.
| Analysis of Rasmussen Polls | |
|---|---|
| Last Update | Poll Data and Analysis |
| 11/21/09 | President Obama, Daily Approval Rating |
| 11/19/09 | President Obama on National Security |
| 11/19/09 | President Obama on the Economy |
| 10/20/09 | Democrats vs. Republican on Health-Care |
| 11/16/09 | Heath-Care Public Opinion Tracking |
| 11/18/09 | Congressional Polls - Generic Ballot |
| 10/20/09 | Trust on the Issues |
| 11/18/09 | Weekly Job Approval, Honeymoon Over? |
August 24th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Frank,
I really like this format. You are doing an awesome job with this.
August 24th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Most of it was McCain’s idea. He’s the man who gave me the opportunity.
Frank
August 24th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
McCain’s a good egg for someone from the Bay area. He and Tina represent 50% of the non-liberal caucus in the entire region.
August 24th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
I really like this format, too! It’s less traumatizing to those of us that break out in hives when we see numbers :-p
August 25th, 2009 at 9:15 am
Nice Jo! I’m one that breaks out in hives as well but Frank is doing a great job easing me into these scary numbers.
August 25th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
Obama is only a temporary glitch in the forward march of the Conservative Right, which is destined to take over the world.
“The Planets,” First Movement. Onward Christian Soldiers. Onward Razzmuzzen, until the end of time….
August 27th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Obama is slowly eroding his own base by showing the liberal, moderate and conservative parts of the Democrat Party what it is like to work for a leftist.
August 30th, 2009 at 7:13 am
Thanks Frank
August 30th, 2009 at 7:14 am
MD,
Guess who got banned from the HHR? LOL
August 30th, 2009 at 8:59 am
who? did you get banned again, eph? tsk tsk.
August 30th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Frank so how far down do you think obama’s numbers will go. Do you think he’ll hit the 20s or 30s, because if you ask me that’s what’s going to happen.
August 30th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Charles,
For the President to get his job approval into the low 40’s, he will need some help from the self-identified democrats.
Basically speaking, think of it this way:
(Republican + Democratic)/2
Add 3 or 4 percent.
This is where you start. Currently it’s about 52%.
D = 81%
R = 18%
Take difference between the independent percentage and the 52% above. Divide by three. Subtract from 52%. This is approximately the job approval.
This is a very rough sketch.
Republican support for the 30-day average is around 18%.
Democratic support for the 30-day average is around 81%.
Independents support is drifting down. Currently (the numbers are at http://www.rightpundits.com ) it’s around 40%.
Last night, independents are 33%. This is what’s caused the percentage to go down.
So, if R goes down to 14%
and D goes down to 77%
you are starting at 48% or 49%.
If indies stay at 35%, then take away 4 or 5% from 48 or 49%
This gives you a realistic job approval number of 44% - 45%.
Keep an eye on the democrats. If they consistently reach the low to mid 70’s and the republicans consistently reach 15%, and the indies stay in the low to mid 30’s, then maybe low 40’s is reasonable.
Frank
August 30th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Charles,
Pardon my stupidity. I thought that I was posting at Hedgehog. You are already at rightpundits.
Duh.
Frank
August 30th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Frank:
No problem man.
Thanks!
August 30th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
So is 47.4% a new low?
August 30th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Eph,
I honestly can’t remember. There was a time in July when his approval was 47% rounded off. I just can’t remember.
Check the post to confirm. I have all of the days back to July 24th.
Frank
August 30th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Eph,
Yes, it is.
I just checked my spreadsheet and the previous low was 47.45% a couple weeks ago.
BTW, the new party benchmarks are going to go into affect on Tuesday. Unless there was a large spike of self-identified democrats, the percentages should change in favor of the republicans and away from the democrats.
Frank
August 30th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
effect.
oops
Frank
August 31st, 2009 at 7:01 am
45.6% approval today.
More details in several hours.
Frank
September 1st, 2009 at 11:20 am
Frank,
Has RAS adjusted his partisan breakdown for this month (sept) ??
September 1st, 2009 at 11:36 am
obama is down to 45% (according to rasmussen) despite a slobbering media.
September 1st, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Kate,
The media is slobbering less.
Frank
September 1st, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Eph,
I think that it will go into affect tomorrow. Check the last paragraph or two within his article to see if they match the percentages above.
Frank
September 2nd, 2009 at 1:56 pm
It all depends on how you are effected by politions
September 3rd, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Wow, MD! Are you actually serious in saying the number of non-liberals in San Francisco has ballooned to four! Will miracles never cease?!
September 5th, 2009 at 8:40 am
Wes,
I know I am out on the ledge on that ascertation but I really believe there are now 4 conservatives, (maybe 5 gasp!) in that region.
September 5th, 2009 at 8:40 am
EPH,
Why did you get banned?
September 6th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
I know I am out on the ledge on that ascertation but I really believe there are now 4 conservatives, (maybe 5 gasp!) in that region.
I think Micheal Alan Weiner– I mean ‘Savage’– accounts for at least 3 of them.
September 17th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Here’s an interesting poll result from Rasmussen:
Voters Say Carter Is Best of Living Ex-Presidents
For nearly one-out-of-three voters (32%), Jimmy Carter is the living ex-president who has done the best job since leaving the White House, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
Carter, who served in the White House from 1977 to 1981, ranks first among the four surviving presidents. George W. Bush, who has only been out of office seven months, comes in last with nine percent (9%) support.
September 21st, 2009 at 2:12 am
Frank you are doing a commendable job out there.Needless to mention on the amount of work you might be doing just make this page useful,thanks indeed
September 21st, 2009 at 6:50 am
Garry,
You are most welcome. Statistics is a passion of mine and, so, it is not too much of a chore to update these posts.
I just hope that people read everything within the approval ratings post. I keep changing details within the analysis, even though it doesn’t look like it at a glance.
Frank
September 27th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
Frank,
This is awesome - I can say as a mathmatically challenged human being that I can understand the polls without getting light headed! Great job!
September 27th, 2009 at 11:15 pm
frank, in the national journal, there’s an article about the problems strategic vision is having ethically that you might find interesting.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/strategic_vision_time_for_tran.php
October 10th, 2009 at 8:38 am
[...] Recent Polls - Obama Polls, Senate Races, Congress, Presidential Job Approval » Right Pundits [...]
October 16th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Frank,
This is awesome - I can say as a mentally challenged individual, you just tell me what to believe, and I will believe it, because I don’t have a brain in my head.
October 20th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
nice work frank
October 20th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Frank,
Thanks for the post, and let me just echo that I enjoy the format as well.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
the women are abandoning obama
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:10 am
Friends,
Hate to apologize for being right but Rasmussen is 49/50 today.
Frank
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:33 am
I’d prefer 45-50%
October 25th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Instead of just looking to throw out obama, people should read tonights Thomson Reuters report on the 3/4 trillion(approx.) dollar waste in the way US health care is currently practiced. Its a good study and the figures comport well with what I know. Its the first honest data I have seen released in the current health reform debate and a great starting point. defensive medicine alone accounts for 37 percent of the waste. good work Reuters.
October 29th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
ras is at minus 5 again
October 29th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
obama is only at plus 7 on rcp average, his lowest total yet
October 29th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
the sheeple are beginning to wake up.
October 29th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
and it’s about time !
October 29th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
wait until people figure out that
under the public option
their tax money will be paying for free medical marijuana for illegal aliens
that will be fun
October 29th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
on all the issues, people now trust the republicans more
October 29th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
the deficits are frightening
October 30th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
people voted for “hope and change” they didn’t know it meant marxism/socialism, huge deficits, 10% unemployment and a surrender foreign policy.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Tim,
Something weird is happening with job approval. The numbers are sinking rather quickly. This drop in numbers appears to be similar to the drop in July. It was relatively sudden and very steady.
The key number to look at is the 30-day trendline. It reached an all-time low today and is bound to keep going down for a while.
The next “significant” milestone will be the 30-day trend reaching 48.00%
When it goes below 48% (if it does), then the President will be in a lot of trouble.
I will be editing and updating the “Honeymoon” post shortly so that the most recent trends are easier to see.
Frank
October 31st, 2009 at 8:40 am
great news in NY 23- Dede is withdrawing ! Makes a Hoffman win all but certain.
October 31st, 2009 at 1:27 pm
as Rev Wright would say ” the chickens are coming home to roost “
October 31st, 2009 at 8:00 pm
Obama seems to be peaking in Gallup, while he’s trending in the opposite direction in Rasmussen. I tend to believe Rasmussen, but it’s interesting to watch these trends play out.
October 31st, 2009 at 8:11 pm
The last time I was in Gallup, at 1pm on a monday afternoon, there were litterally drinking men holding up light poles on corners with every last bit of their strenght. I don’t even know what to make of that.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Love seeing Obama fail.
November 1st, 2009 at 5:49 am
There are several significant differences between Gallup and Rasmussen.
1. weighting of results by party
2. adults (gallup) vs. likely voters (rasmussen)
Combine both of these differences and you can receive incredible swings in Gallup. With Rasmussen, you need a significant outlier for an individual day to spike the averages. At best, with Rasmussen, the spike is no more than 2% points.
Changes occur slowly over time. That is why my 30-day trendline numbers are so important. That trendline is really comparing two number points. The most recent and the day 31 days ago. If the most recent is less than 31 days ago, then the 30-day trend decreases. If it is great than 31 days ago, then the 30-day trend increases.
Frank
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:47 pm
it would be nice to see a poll other than ras showing obama under 50% approval.
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Tim,
Rasmussen is extremely accurate and consistent. I have always trusted them explicitly.
BTW, there have been other firms showing approval under 50%. YouGov and Zogby are two.
Frank
November 5th, 2009 at 9:20 am
i think this new 6.8 rcp spread represents the lowest approval rating for obama yet
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
November 6th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29238.html
palin to speak at gridiron club
November 7th, 2009 at 4:05 am
I can’t figure out which thread is the open thread, so I am posting here. I have become a Gator fan and love watching Tim Tebow and the Gators almost every Sunday. They are a fun team to watch.
November 8th, 2009 at 11:34 am
i see obama’s number falling further next week due to 1- obamacare passing in the house
2. his “cool and measured” response to the hasan murders at fort hood.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:21 am
I believe the way Obama has handled the Fort Hood terrorist attack will further erode his approval ratings.
His speech with the shout out exposed him as merely an ACTOR lacking in HUMAN EMOTION and empathy for the injured and their families.
His administrations spin as backlash against Muslims as their main concern adds to his weakness as a commander in chief in charge of our NATIONAL SECURITY !!!
November 10th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
down goes the weasel. down, down, down.
November 12th, 2009 at 6:50 am
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/its_not_over_recanvassing_shows_ny23_race.html
NY23 is tightening.
Do you smell fraud too?
Frank
November 15th, 2009 at 3:13 am
any further news out of ny 23 ? any legal actions filed recently ?
November 15th, 2009 at 7:45 am
Tim,
Only 5,000 or so absentee ballots have been returned, to my knowledge. The deadline is Monday to receive the ballots.
After counting these ballots, the total should be closer to a 2000 vote lead.
At that point, who knows. The question is whether there will be any legal action contesting the election. I predict that there will not be any legal action.
Frank
November 19th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Frank, is there any rational reason for the strong negative trend in the past few days? Or is it noise?
You’ve educated me on the statistical differences with Gallup and Rasmussen. In the past two days, both have gone down by about the same amount.
I can’t say I can see any reason for this. Not much has happened in the news.
Perhaps just a coincidence?
November 19th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Ignatius,
This is probably statistical noise. 51% to 46% is a wild ride for approval.
Keep an eye on the 30-day trend numbers. They will tell you what is happening. At the present they are fairly stationary. It will be hard for it to go down much more unless the approval numbers stay below 47.5%.
I haven’t checked Gallup recently.
What happened?
Frank
November 19th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Frank, gallup went from 55-38 to 50-44. That was the last 2 or 3 days. Seemed like a big change, even for gallup. ALso, seemed to coincide with Rasmussen.
November 19th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Ignatius,
Everybody is confirming Rasmussen within the last several days.
Quinnipiac, Fox News, PPP: all with approval less than 50%.
Fascinating.
Frank
November 19th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Strange, isn’t it? And with no real “event” that would explain it, not one that seems to readily come to my mind, anyway.
November 19th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Ignatius,
I think that the economy is the main driving force along with the trials in NYC. This is all demonstrating the lack of leadership as posted earlier.
Healthcare (all polls say that the public says no) is also contributing to this craziness.
I was certain that the improvement in the stock market would have increased approval. I think that people see that the market has little to do with the Obama administration.
Frank
November 20th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
49-44 in Gallup today.
I think a pickup in the job market might save him in 2010. Otherwise he’s toast.
November 20th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Ignatius,
There was a great article at realclearpolitics about his job approval (I think that it was there…maybe Rasmussen.) It was about whether job approval will go back over 50% again. This happened to Reagan and to Clinton early on during their first terms.
Frank
November 20th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
[...] To Drop It’s Pants. Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion: Rise and Fall, Sword Optional Right Pundits: Recent Polls - Obama Polls, Senate Races, Congress, Presidential Job Approval Another Black Conservative: Bow Wow! Obama Bows Again. RightWingNews: Bowing Before Monarchs and [...]
November 20th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
O/T everytime i see the zwinky ad, i want to dress her but someone here said i might get a virus