Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak are neck and neck in the latest Pennsylvania polls as the Pennsylvania Senate race 2010 has taken a remarkable turn. Access Specter Toomey polls here on this thread until the election since this news article is updated frequently with the latest breaking news on the race. See the table at the bottom which includes Joe Sestak who is making a move.

Toomey Specter polls Pennsylvania





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Toomey had led Spector by double digits for a brief period of time in August, a remarkable reversal of fortunes from earlier in the year. Two months earlier Rasmussen had Specter up by 11 points in June.

Below is a compilation of all of the most recent polls on the senate race.

What the data shows is that we have a very consistent race with little change over time.

The reversal of Specter’s luck comes after a series of blunders by the veteran Senator. Sensing an Obama nation, Arlen Specter switched parties earlier in 2009 hoping to coast to an easy victory as a reinvented Democrat. He failed to anticipate the torrential backlash that would develop in the public against Democrat policies and Barack Obama himself after just a few months in office.

And in August, Specter had been roundly booed and challenged by his constituents at town hall meetings throughout the state. The health care issue is just killing the Democrats.

What will happen now is Democrats will challenge Specter for the party’s nominations, stabbing him in the back after a White House deal that he struck to switch parties. Joe Sestak is now seeking the party’s nomination for the PA Senate 2010 primary, and he is already within striking distance despite poor name recognition in the state. Sestak’s chances of unseating Specter are difficult to assess but we think even money.

Against Sestak, Toomey’s chances will be at best even when this scenario develops because he will still be seen as too conservative for the liberal northeast. Nothing will change the realities of conservatives competing on foreign turf, even the apocalyptic collapse of Barack Obama’s popularity that we are witnessing today.

More Toomey Specter polls will be added to this thread as they become available, and this article will be recycled to the top when that happens. And we are including Joe Sestak polls too. The Pennsylvania Senate race 2010 will be something for us all to watch as we view the most recent PA Senate polls below.




Senate Polls, Pennsylvania, General Election Match-ups

Polling Date Polling Company Pat Toomey (R) Joe Sestak (D)
10/31/2010 PPP 51% 46%

10/31/2010 Morning Call 48% 44%

10/30/2010 Quinnipiac 50% 45%

10/28/2010 Rasmussen 50% 46%

10/28/2010 McClatchy 52% 45%

10/28/2010 Morning Call 47% 42%

10/26/2010 CNN 49% 45%

10/24/2010 Reuters 46% 46%

10/24/2010 Franklin & Marshall 43% 36%

10/24/2010 Morning Call 47% 42%

10/21/2010 Rasmussen 48% 44%

10/18/2010 PPP 45% 46%

10/19/2010 Morning Call 41% 44%

10/17/2010 Quinnipiac 48% 46%

10/12/2010 Rasmussen 49% 39%

10/4/2010 Morning Call 46% 39%

9/29/2010 Rasmussen 49% 40%

9/28/2010 McClatchy 51% 42%

9/27/2010 Suffolk University 45% 40%

9/26/2010 Sesquehanna 45% 42%

9/26/2010 Franklin & Marshall 38% 29%

9/23/2010 Morning Call 46% 39%

9/21/2010 Magellan 49% 41%

9/21/2010 CNN 49% 44%

9/19/2010 Quinnipiac 50% 43%

9/18/2010 Fox News 48% 40%

9/16/2010 Times Leader 40% 36%

9/13/2010 Rasmussen 49% 41%

9/11/2010 Fox News 47% 41%

8/30/2010 Rasmussen 48% 42%

8/29/2010 Reuters 47% 37%

8/23/2010 Franklin & Marshall 40% 31%

8/16/2010 PPP 45% 36%

7/28/2010 Rasmussen 45% 39%

7/14/2010 Rasmussen 45% 38%

7/11/2010 Quinnipiac 43% 43%

6/29/2010 Rasmussen 45% 39%

6/21/2010 PPP 41% 41%

6/4/2010 Rasmussen 45% 38%

5/29/2010 Daily Kos 40% 43%

5/20/2010 Rasmussen 42% 46%

5/12/2010 Daily Kos 45% 40%

5/10/2010 Quinnipiac 42% 40%

5/9/2010 Franklin & Marshall 29% 28%

5/6/2010 Rasmussen 42% 40%

4/12/2010 Rasmussen 47% 36%

4/7/2010 Morning Call 33% 22%

4/5/2010 Quinnipiac 42% 34%




Overall

Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other

02/08/2010 : 47.01% / 37.78% / 5.37%
01/20/2010 : 48.65% / 40.02% / 3.74%
12/08/2009 : 46.03% / 41.76% / 3.83%
10/20/2009 : 31.00% / 33.00% / 6.00%
10/13/2009 : 45.17% / 39.83% / 6.16%
10/01/2009 : 43.00% / 42.00% / 1.00%
08/25/2009 : 29.00% / 37.00% / 9.00%
08/11/2009 : 47.56% / 36.25% / 4.27%
08/10/2009 : 40.00% / 45.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 44.00% / 45.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 39.06% / 49.81% / 4.46%
05/28/2009 : 37.00% / 46.00% / 0.00%

This data shows a very consistent race pitting Toomey vs. Specter. Toomey appears to be gaining support while Senator Specter has maxed out at 42% and appears to be receding. There has been no increase for Specter since October 1, 2009.


Overall
Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other

02/08/2010 : 43.38% / 35.11% / 6.81%
01/20/2010 : 43.37% / 34.88% / 5.93%
12/08/2009 : 43.55% / 37.93% / 5.68%
10/20/2009 : 28.00% / 20.00% / 4.00%
10/13/2009 : 37.28% / 37.86% / 6.06%
10/01/2009 : 38.00% / 35.00% / 0.00%
08/25/2009 : 26.00% / 22.00% / 6.00%
08/11/2009 : 42.59% / 34.68% / 4.98%
08/10/2009 : 41.00% / 42.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 39.00% / 35.00% / 1.00%
06/16/2009 : 34.50% / 40.92% / 6.91%
05/28/2009 : 35.00% / 37.00% / 0.00%

Again, this data shows a consistent but growing support for Toomey vs. Sestak.



Republicans
Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other

02/08/2010 : 75.67% / 12.05% / 3.55%
01/20/2010 : 82.56% / 12.48% / 1.35%
12/08/2009 : 80.29% / 8.57% / 3.87%
10/13/2009 : 79.74% / 11.46% / 2.25%
10/01/2009 : 78.00% / 14.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 79.81% / 10.94% / 1.86%
08/10/2009 : 82.00% / 7.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 82.00% / 11.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 68.02% / 22.66% / 4.50%
05/28/2009 : 73.00% / 16.00% / 0.00%

Consistent support for Toomey in the 80% range. Support for Specter appears to be weakening among republicans.


Republicans
Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other

02/08/2010 : 74.20% / 9.31% / 3.64%
01/20/2010 : 77.35% / 9.18% / 2.14%
12/08/2009 : 76.83% / 7.76% / 5.74%
10/13/2009 : 73.21% / 9.55% / 4.19%
10/01/2009 : 74.00% / 6.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 75.25% / 8.10% / 3.06%
08/10/2009 : 83.00% / 6.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 76.00% / 7.00% / 1.00%
06/16/2009 : 66.18% / 13.45% / 8.99%
05/28/2009 : 72.00% / 5.00% / 0.00%

Less support by Toomey vs. Sestak but less support for Sestak too.


Democrats
Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other

02/08/2010 : 17.55% / 70.38% / 3.09%
01/20/2010 : 21.36% / 69.02% / 4.15%
12/08/2009 : 17.74% / 69.93% / 3.44%
10/13/2009 : 22.59% / 64.82% / 6.61%
10/01/2009 : 12.00% / 73.00% / 1.00%
08/11/2009 : 18.91% / 61.29% / 5.82%
08/10/2009 : 8.00% / 75.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 11.00% / 79.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 15.19% / 73.80% / 3.90%
05/28/2009 : 10.00% / 73.00% / 0.00%

Surprising support by Toomey among democrats. Specter can’t get above 73% support among democrats since October 1, 2009.


Democrats
Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other

02/08/2010 : 13.64% / 66.79% / 5.34%
01/20/2010 : 12.70% / 62.76% / 7.70%
12/08/2009 : 16.46% / 61.84% / 7.36%
10/13/2009 : 13.18% / 62.31% / 6.49%
10/01/2009 : 6.00% / 68.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 13.47% / 60.47% / 6.72%
08/10/2009 : 8.00% / 71.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 6.00% / 67.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 12.44% / 63.78% / 4.57%
05/28/2009 : 8.00% / 68.00% / 0.00%

Less support by Toomey when running against Sestak but Sestak has less support than Senator Specter.


Independents

Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other

02/08/2010 : 51.58% / 25.75% / 10.45%
01/20/2010 : 50.00% / 26.83% / 6.33%
12/08/2009 : 57.88% / 28.47% / 4.70%
10/13/2009 : 51.09% / 18.19% / 10.96%
10/01/2009 : 41.00% / 38.00% / 1.00%
08/11/2009 : 48.40% / 28.01% / 5.95%
08/10/2009 : 40.00% / 43.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 46.00% / 42.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 52.24% / 31.23% / 6.50%
05/28/2009 : 33.00% / 43.00% / 0.00%

Strong support among independents for Toomey and a lessening in support for Senator Specter. Consistently a 2:1 ratio in favor or Pat Toomey.


Independents
Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other

02/08/2010 : 45.74% / 24.33% / 12.42%
01/20/2010 : 50.61% / 21.11% / 8.02%
12/08/2009 : 54.16% / 29.86% / 1.62%
10/13/2009 : 45.09% / 17.51% / 7.78%
10/01/2009 : 34.00% / 25.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 43.78% / 27.52% / 4.82%
08/10/2009 : 41.00% / 40.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 41.00% / 28.00% / 1.00%
06/16/2009 : 33.14% / 27.63% / 10.29%
05/28/2009 : 34.00% / 32.00% / 0.00%

Approximately identical support when Toomey is matched up with Sestak as when Toomey is matched up with Specter.


Men

Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other

02/08/2010 : 52.24% / 35.91% / 4.09%
01/20/2010 : 59.34% / 33.07% / 3.36%
12/08/2009 : 52.11% / 39.40% / 3.62%
10/13/2009 : 49.18% / 39.74% / 4.64%
10/01/2009 : 48.00% / 41.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 51.49% / 32.91% / 4.60%
08/10/2009 : 44.00% / 42.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 52.00% / 39.00% / 1.00%
06/16/2009 : 43.76% / 47.95% / 3.28%
05/28/2009 : 39.00% / 47.00% / 0.00%

Men show strong support for Toomey and a consistent 40% or less for Senator Specter.


Men

Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other

02/08/2010 : 50.05% / 37.58% / 3.56%
01/20/2010 : 53.59% / 29.50% / 6.61%
12/08/2009 : 50.01% / 37.98% / 4.49%
10/13/2009 : 43.82% / 38.24% / 5.67%
10/01/2009 : 45.00% / 34.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 47.69% / 34.18% / 3.66%
08/10/2009 : 45.00% / 39.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 49.00% / 32.00% / 2.00%
06/16/2009 : 36.31% / 42.58% / 8.32%
05/28/2009 : 40.00% / 37.00% / 0.00%

Equal support for Toomey when matched up with Sestak but a slightly lower support level among men for Sestak as opposed to Specter.


Women

Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other

02/08/2010 : 42.78% / 39.30% / 6.41%
01/20/2010 : 39.27% / 46.13% / 4.07%
12/08/2009 : 40.83% / 43.78% / 4.02%
10/13/2009 : 41.84% / 39.91% / 7.42%
10/01/2009 : 39.00% / 43.00% / 1.00%
08/11/2009 : 44.25% / 39.05% / 3.99%
08/10/2009 : 36.00% / 48.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 37.00% / 50.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 35.01% / 51.42% / 5.47%
05/28/2009 : 35.00% / 45.00% / 0.00%

Basically speaking the support among women when Toomey is matched up with Senator Specter shows a “push.” Equal support for both candidates.


Women

Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other

02/08/2010 : 37.97% / 33.11% / 9.44%
01/20/2010 : 34.40% / 39.61% / 5.33%
12/08/2009 : 38.02% / 37.89% / 6.70%
10/13/2009 : 31.86% / 37.54% / 6.38%
10/01/2009 : 32.00% / 35.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 38.31% / 35.11% / 6.09%
08/10/2009 : 37.00% / 45.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 30.00% / 38.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 32.94% / 39.49% / 5.69%
05/28/2009 : 32.00% / 38.00% / 0.00%

Again, a demonstration of equal support for both candidates among women.

A typical ad which captures the mood reflected in the latest Rasmussen poll for Pennsylvania is below.


Specter – Toomey Ad Video

Remember Pennsylvania exit polls and election results will be included with the live election returns window to be included here.