Sestak leads Toomey in latest polls.
Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak are neck and neck in the latest Pennsylvania polls as the Pennsylvania Senate race 2010 has taken a remarkable turn. Access Specter Toomey polls here on this thread until the election since this news article is updated frequently with the latest breaking news on the race. See the table at the bottom which includes Joe Sestak who is making a move.
Pennsylvania Senate Race Polls: Toomey – Specter 2010
Toomey had led Spector by double digits for a brief period of time in August, a remarkable reversal of fortunes from earlier in the year. Two months earlier Rasmussen had Specter up by 11 points in June.
Below is a compilation of all of the most recent polls on the senate race.
What the data shows is that we have a very consistent race with little change over time.
The reversal of Specter’s luck comes after a series of blunders by the veteran Senator. Sensing an Obama nation, Arlen Specter switched parties earlier in 2009 hoping to coast to an easy victory as a reinvented Democrat. He failed to anticipate the torrential backlash that would develop in the public against Democrat policies and Barack Obama himself after just a few months in office.
And in August, Specter had been roundly booed and challenged by his constituents at town hall meetings throughout the state. The health care issue is just killing the Democrats.
What will happen now is Democrats will challenge Specter for the party’s nominations, stabbing him in the back after a White House deal that he struck to switch parties. Joe Sestak is now seeking the party’s nomination for the PA Senate 2010 primary, and he is already within striking distance despite poor name recognition in the state. Sestak’s chances of unseating Specter are difficult to assess but we think even money.
Against Sestak, Toomey’s chances will be at best even when this scenario develops because he will still be seen as too conservative for the liberal northeast. Nothing will change the realities of conservatives competing on foreign turf, even the apocalyptic collapse of Barack Obama’s popularity that we are witnessing today.
More Toomey Specter polls will be added to this thread as they become available, and this article will be recycled to the top when that happens. And we are including Joe Sestak polls too. The Pennsylvania Senate race 2010 will be something for us all to watch as we view the most recent PA Senate polls below.
| Senate Polls, Pennsylvania, General Election Match-ups | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Date | Polling Company | Pat Toomey (R) | Joe Sestak (D) |
| 7/28/2010 | Rasmussen | 45% | 39% |
| 7/14/2010 | Rasmussen | 45% | 38% |
| 7/11/2010 | Quinnipiac | 43% | 43% |
| 6/29/2010 | Rasmussen | 45% | 39% |
| 6/21/2010 | PPP | 41% | 41% |
| 6/4/2010 | Rasmussen | 45% | 38% |
| 5/29/2010 | Daily Kos | 40% | 43% |
| 5/20/2010 | Rasmussen | 42% | 46% |
| 5/12/2010 | Daily Kos | 45% | 40% |
| 5/10/2010 | Quinnipiac | 42% | 40% |
| 5/9/2010 | Franklin & Marshall | 29% | 28% |
| 5/6/2010 | Rasmussen | 42% | 40% |
| 4/12/2010 | Rasmussen | 47% | 36% |
| 4/7/2010 | Morning Call | 33% | 22% |
| 4/5/2010 | Quinnipiac | 42% | 34% |
| Senate Polls, Pennsylvania, Democrat Primary Race | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Date | Polling Company | Arlen Specter (D) | Joe Sestak (D) |
| 5/15/2010 | Morning Call | 44% | 44% |
| 5/13/2010 | Suffolk | 40% | 49% |
| 5/12/2010 | Daily Kos | 43% | 45% |
| 5/10/2010 | Quinnipiac | 44% | 42% |
| 5/9/2010 | Franklin & Marshall | 36% | 38% |
| 5/6/2010 | Rasmussen | 42% | 47% |
| 5/6/2010 | Morning Call | 43% | 43% |
| 5/2/2010 | Quinnipiac | 47% | 39% |
| 5/1/2010 | Morning Call | 48% | 42% |
| 4/12/2010 | Rasmussen | 44% | 42% |
| 4/12/2010 | Susquehanna | 42% | 38% |
Overall
Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other
02/08/2010 : 47.01% / 37.78% / 5.37%
01/20/2010 : 48.65% / 40.02% / 3.74%
12/08/2009 : 46.03% / 41.76% / 3.83%
10/20/2009 : 31.00% / 33.00% / 6.00%
10/13/2009 : 45.17% / 39.83% / 6.16%
10/01/2009 : 43.00% / 42.00% / 1.00%
08/25/2009 : 29.00% / 37.00% / 9.00%
08/11/2009 : 47.56% / 36.25% / 4.27%
08/10/2009 : 40.00% / 45.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 44.00% / 45.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 39.06% / 49.81% / 4.46%
05/28/2009 : 37.00% / 46.00% / 0.00%
This data shows a very consistent race pitting Toomey vs. Specter. Toomey appears to be gaining support while Senator Specter has maxed out at 42% and appears to be receding. There has been no increase for Specter since October 1, 2009.
Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other
02/08/2010 : 43.38% / 35.11% / 6.81%
01/20/2010 : 43.37% / 34.88% / 5.93%
12/08/2009 : 43.55% / 37.93% / 5.68%
10/20/2009 : 28.00% / 20.00% / 4.00%
10/13/2009 : 37.28% / 37.86% / 6.06%
10/01/2009 : 38.00% / 35.00% / 0.00%
08/25/2009 : 26.00% / 22.00% / 6.00%
08/11/2009 : 42.59% / 34.68% / 4.98%
08/10/2009 : 41.00% / 42.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 39.00% / 35.00% / 1.00%
06/16/2009 : 34.50% / 40.92% / 6.91%
05/28/2009 : 35.00% / 37.00% / 0.00%
Again, this data shows a consistent but growing support for Toomey vs. Sestak.
Republicans
Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other
02/08/2010 : 75.67% / 12.05% / 3.55%
01/20/2010 : 82.56% / 12.48% / 1.35%
12/08/2009 : 80.29% / 8.57% / 3.87%
10/13/2009 : 79.74% / 11.46% / 2.25%
10/01/2009 : 78.00% / 14.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 79.81% / 10.94% / 1.86%
08/10/2009 : 82.00% / 7.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 82.00% / 11.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 68.02% / 22.66% / 4.50%
05/28/2009 : 73.00% / 16.00% / 0.00%
Consistent support for Toomey in the 80% range. Support for Specter appears to be weakening among republicans.
Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other
02/08/2010 : 74.20% / 9.31% / 3.64%
01/20/2010 : 77.35% / 9.18% / 2.14%
12/08/2009 : 76.83% / 7.76% / 5.74%
10/13/2009 : 73.21% / 9.55% / 4.19%
10/01/2009 : 74.00% / 6.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 75.25% / 8.10% / 3.06%
08/10/2009 : 83.00% / 6.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 76.00% / 7.00% / 1.00%
06/16/2009 : 66.18% / 13.45% / 8.99%
05/28/2009 : 72.00% / 5.00% / 0.00%
Less support by Toomey vs. Sestak but less support for Sestak too.
Democrats
Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other
02/08/2010 : 17.55% / 70.38% / 3.09%
01/20/2010 : 21.36% / 69.02% / 4.15%
12/08/2009 : 17.74% / 69.93% / 3.44%
10/13/2009 : 22.59% / 64.82% / 6.61%
10/01/2009 : 12.00% / 73.00% / 1.00%
08/11/2009 : 18.91% / 61.29% / 5.82%
08/10/2009 : 8.00% / 75.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 11.00% / 79.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 15.19% / 73.80% / 3.90%
05/28/2009 : 10.00% / 73.00% / 0.00%
Surprising support by Toomey among democrats. Specter can’t get above 73% support among democrats since October 1, 2009.
Democrats
Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other
02/08/2010 : 13.64% / 66.79% / 5.34%
01/20/2010 : 12.70% / 62.76% / 7.70%
12/08/2009 : 16.46% / 61.84% / 7.36%
10/13/2009 : 13.18% / 62.31% / 6.49%
10/01/2009 : 6.00% / 68.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 13.47% / 60.47% / 6.72%
08/10/2009 : 8.00% / 71.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 6.00% / 67.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 12.44% / 63.78% / 4.57%
05/28/2009 : 8.00% / 68.00% / 0.00%
Less support by Toomey when running against Sestak but Sestak has less support than Senator Specter.
Independents
Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other
02/08/2010 : 51.58% / 25.75% / 10.45%
01/20/2010 : 50.00% / 26.83% / 6.33%
12/08/2009 : 57.88% / 28.47% / 4.70%
10/13/2009 : 51.09% / 18.19% / 10.96%
10/01/2009 : 41.00% / 38.00% / 1.00%
08/11/2009 : 48.40% / 28.01% / 5.95%
08/10/2009 : 40.00% / 43.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 46.00% / 42.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 52.24% / 31.23% / 6.50%
05/28/2009 : 33.00% / 43.00% / 0.00%
Strong support among independents for Toomey and a lessening in support for Senator Specter. Consistently a 2:1 ratio in favor or Pat Toomey.
Independents
Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other
02/08/2010 : 45.74% / 24.33% / 12.42%
01/20/2010 : 50.61% / 21.11% / 8.02%
12/08/2009 : 54.16% / 29.86% / 1.62%
10/13/2009 : 45.09% / 17.51% / 7.78%
10/01/2009 : 34.00% / 25.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 43.78% / 27.52% / 4.82%
08/10/2009 : 41.00% / 40.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 41.00% / 28.00% / 1.00%
06/16/2009 : 33.14% / 27.63% / 10.29%
05/28/2009 : 34.00% / 32.00% / 0.00%
Approximately identical support when Toomey is matched up with Sestak as when Toomey is matched up with Specter.
Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other
02/08/2010 : 52.24% / 35.91% / 4.09%
01/20/2010 : 59.34% / 33.07% / 3.36%
12/08/2009 : 52.11% / 39.40% / 3.62%
10/13/2009 : 49.18% / 39.74% / 4.64%
10/01/2009 : 48.00% / 41.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 51.49% / 32.91% / 4.60%
08/10/2009 : 44.00% / 42.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 52.00% / 39.00% / 1.00%
06/16/2009 : 43.76% / 47.95% / 3.28%
05/28/2009 : 39.00% / 47.00% / 0.00%
Men show strong support for Toomey and a consistent 40% or less for Senator Specter.
Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other
02/08/2010 : 50.05% / 37.58% / 3.56%
01/20/2010 : 53.59% / 29.50% / 6.61%
12/08/2009 : 50.01% / 37.98% / 4.49%
10/13/2009 : 43.82% / 38.24% / 5.67%
10/01/2009 : 45.00% / 34.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 47.69% / 34.18% / 3.66%
08/10/2009 : 45.00% / 39.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 49.00% / 32.00% / 2.00%
06/16/2009 : 36.31% / 42.58% / 8.32%
05/28/2009 : 40.00% / 37.00% / 0.00%
Equal support for Toomey when matched up with Sestak but a slightly lower support level among men for Sestak as opposed to Specter.
Time Span : Toomey / Specter / Other
02/08/2010 : 42.78% / 39.30% / 6.41%
01/20/2010 : 39.27% / 46.13% / 4.07%
12/08/2009 : 40.83% / 43.78% / 4.02%
10/13/2009 : 41.84% / 39.91% / 7.42%
10/01/2009 : 39.00% / 43.00% / 1.00%
08/11/2009 : 44.25% / 39.05% / 3.99%
08/10/2009 : 36.00% / 48.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 37.00% / 50.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 35.01% / 51.42% / 5.47%
05/28/2009 : 35.00% / 45.00% / 0.00%
Basically speaking the support among women when Toomey is matched up with Senator Specter shows a “push.” Equal support for both candidates.
Women
Time Span : Toomey / Sestak / Other
02/08/2010 : 37.97% / 33.11% / 9.44%
01/20/2010 : 34.40% / 39.61% / 5.33%
12/08/2009 : 38.02% / 37.89% / 6.70%
10/13/2009 : 31.86% / 37.54% / 6.38%
10/01/2009 : 32.00% / 35.00% / 0.00%
08/11/2009 : 38.31% / 35.11% / 6.09%
08/10/2009 : 37.00% / 45.00% / 0.00%
07/14/2009 : 30.00% / 38.00% / 0.00%
06/16/2009 : 32.94% / 39.49% / 5.69%
05/28/2009 : 32.00% / 38.00% / 0.00%
Again, a demonstration of equal support for both candidates among women.
A typical ad which captures the mood reflected in the latest Rasmussen poll for Pennsylvania is below.
Specter – Toomey Ad Video
August 13th, 2009 at 5:57 am
Well I have a cousin that lives in PA and he to college there. And he told me very recently that people use to love Specter there, but now they see him as just an idiot who’s in it for obama. He pissed off all the republicans and the Dems who like him before now think of him as just a trader. Overall I feel Specter is just another liberal who will probably lose there spot as Senator or governor. I mean the Dems have problems with Patterson,Gilbrand,Boxer,Corzine, and a serious of other Dems who will probably lose reelection. Also I feel Linda Lingle,George Pataki,Mitt Romney,Jodi Rell, and a couple of other republican governors should run for the Senate. Also please don’t tell me that George Allen will run in 2012, because he’s an idiot for that Maccaca crap and I never wanted him for 2012.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:09 am
I have been saying this for months and the rinos have been jumping all over me. Yes, I now feel vindicated.
It is too bad that Sestak is going to easily defeat Specter in the primary, by double digits. Specter would have been easy pickings.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:17 am
I assume this was a typo but it is not the northeast section that Toomey needs to worry about but the southeast.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:19 am
He needs to worry about the whole state.
Good morning Michael! How was your vacation away from the liberal northeast?
August 13th, 2009 at 6:20 am
McCain,
It is SE PA that Toomey needs to worry about, not NE PA.
Maybe I will come out of retirement and post an analysis of this race.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:22 am
Out here in California, the entire liberal northeast is about 13 states. That’s to what I’m referring, my good man.
Do you know when the filing deadline is for running in the Dem primary? Who else do you think will jump in?
August 13th, 2009 at 6:29 am
Whoops,
I did not think my first mention of NE posted. The perils of a PDA. I did not intend to be redundant.
Still on vaca. Tanned, rested and ready to defeat libs.
I write up an article when I get back and email it to you, Beth and Kate. If you decide to post it – great. If not, no problem. My writing is rusty.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:31 am
OH we will post it alright. You have alumnus rights.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:32 am
Hi MDefl…you are missed over on HHR. Obama at all time lows in Rasmussen this morning
Strongly approve/strongly disapprove: 29/37
Overall: 47/52
CHANGE IS HERE!!!
August 13th, 2009 at 6:34 am
Well I live in upstate NY, but I live in the City for my school year at NYU. And in this election I was confident Mccain would win, because in upstate NY I saw a lot of people with signs on there lawns saying Mccain 08. Everyday there was this old man who would fill up a large ballon that said Mccain so I was saying if this is how NY is looking than we must be killing in Florida and Ohio, but I didn’t realize that the cities go liberal so I really advise republicans from more liberal states to not waste there time in the more rural areas, but focus on the cities. The area where my parents lived went Red, but the cities are what killed us. Also I think Pawlenty shouldn’t run for president, because he would win in a senate election yet fail in a presidential election.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:38 am
Not sure on the deadline but the field is set imo.
Rendell wanted to run but the Obama admin twisted his arm not to as punishment for supporting HRC.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:40 am
Thanks Darrell. I can be found here at RP. HHR is in the past.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:42 am
HHR, I’m sure Frank will be posting about the fab Rasmussen news later today. Look for that.
Charles, it’s a very good point that few people are able to see beyond what is near them. It’s what gets parties into trouble every time, when one narrow segment of the party begins to assert itself on the rest. It’s what leads some people into truly believing that their caricatured versions of “real conservatives” can win in states like Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Maine. Once in a blue moon, that’s all.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:48 am
A real con can win in PA. The state senate is controlled by R’s, most of them are very conservative. PA is NOT RI. Yes, it is a purple state but a con can win more often than a blue moon.
August 13th, 2009 at 6:53 am
Santorum was once in a blue moon, but not twice.
I do realize that PA is not Rhode Island. You win that argument. But push comes to shove, PA don’t elect conservatives anymore in statewide races. They do elect perceived moderates, and they can certainly elect Republicans.
August 13th, 2009 at 7:17 am
Santorum was elected twice. Yes, there were extenuating circumstances on both occasions but he did win in 94 and 2000.
Toomey is a real conservative and can win. I give him a 50/50 chance against Sestak and 90% against Specter.
August 13th, 2009 at 7:20 am
Then we agree. I gave him at best a 50-50 chance when I dreamed up this post from 3000 miles away.
What’s annoying is that the post below this one about a stupid fish is getting all the readers today, evidence that almost nobody is tuning into the 2010 election except us political junkies. Much will change between now and then.
Right on Santorum you are. Twice in a blue moon defeats my error.
August 13th, 2009 at 7:22 am
Mccain:
Well it’s sad that we have so many liberals among us in the party, because think about we had Specter and we have currently those two sisters from Maine. We need to get them out and put true conservatives in office, because if we don’t it’ll just lead to more problems.I personally think these moderates are the worst things the party can have, because they aren’t a big fan of raising taxes yet they support spending. So what that leads us with deficits, because I would rather high taxes than us having to sell our souls to China.
August 13th, 2009 at 7:26 am
Charles, where would you put those true conservatives in office? Maine? Seems that we should have learned this lesson already in Oregon, Rhode Island, Minnesota, etal, which is that you can’t govern with a 30% solution, to paraphrase Sherlock Holmes. The removal of any Republican vote from the Senate caucus is bad for conservatism.
August 13th, 2009 at 7:30 am
It is a purple state but conditions are good for a con in 10. It is no slam dunk against Sestak though. He is a tireless worker.
Notice, I am already counting Specter as a loser in the primary.
August 13th, 2009 at 7:42 am
As am I about Specter.
Lots can change that can make the rage today a distant memory. Someone can start a shooting war somewhere. A building can blow up. Hostages taken. Might by rosy economic news in 2010. Hard to see things getting worse for the Dems, but they might. This is why I give Toomey no better than a 50% chance against any reasonably moderate Democrat. He might win if the election were held today, but we got 15 months of eternity to go.
August 13th, 2009 at 7:43 am
I’m originally from western pa, and obviously michael knows a loty more about current political conditions than I do, but I never thought of pa as a liberal state. I can only think of one liberal who was elected senator in ‘recent’ times and that was wofford. So in a republican year nationally, I don’t see any reason why toomey can’t win.
August 13th, 2009 at 7:48 am
A bad thing for spector is that his campaign is so tighty connected to rendell. Rendell’s popularity has declined a ot lately among his base support, and as a lame duck, he is a lot less capable of getting out the vote. I woudnt be surprised at all if sestak moves up in the polls enough to get the dem machine soto voce to dump spector in the primary.
Spector’s big advantage is that as an incumbent he can count on the other dem senators rallying for him in the campaign. I can’t figure out which senators could actually help him.
August 13th, 2009 at 7:52 am
The only people weaker than the Democrats right now are the Republicans.
August 13th, 2009 at 7:56 am
I never thought of pa as a liberal state
Yeah same here. The religious population is very high, and they are one of two states in the entire country that ban the sale of “tobacco” paraphernalia (bongs, etc). Selling to PA is what got Tommy Chong nailed.
Of course, that could just be the influence of that piece of human excrement, Mary Beth Buchanan, and might not be representative of the population. Overall though, I’ve always considered PA to be pretty tied into the religious right outside of Pittsburgh, Philly, maybe Harrisburg.