A small improvement for the democrats. It is only a 7% advantage for the generic republican.
These results are incredibly strong for the republicans. It is a mind blowing advantage. If this is true, we are going to have a blood bath in November.
Please look at the republican and democratic support in tables below.
Please look at the men and women support as well.
I have included 4-week averages as well so that we can see trends more clearly.
By looking at the data below, you can see the incredible consistency among the support for the generic republican candidate.
I continue to be amazed by these results. The generic republican candidate has NEVER been favored. I did a limited amount of research through Scott Rasmussen’s archives and found out some fascinating data. In the calendar year 2004, the generic democratic candidate was leading the generic republican candidate by between 4% and 7% for most of the year. The republican party gained seats during the election in November of that year. With the generic ballot in the republican’s favor now, there may be a significant shift in the Congress come November of next year. As I have said repeatedly, we will need to continue monitoring this data, however.
Since late June, the support for the generic republican candidate has been over 40%, with most of the data in the 42% to 45% range. With the exception of one week with 39% support, the support for the generic democratic candidate has ranged from 35% to 38%.
When you look at the trends in the numbers below, you will see that the generic republican percentage has moved into the 43% to 45% range, and the generic democratic candidate percentage is consistently in the 35% to 37% range.
For obvious reasons, self-identified republicans and self-identified democrats favor their party overwhelmingly, but look at the support among democrats. Democrat support of the generic democratic candidate has settled into the low to mid 70% range.
Self-identified democrats support the generic republican by almost twice as much as self-identified republicans support the generic democrat.
It is the independents who are driving the change in the generic ballot preferences. They were consistently 17% to 23% more in favor of the generic republican candidate. This week they are more than 19% more in favor on the generic republican candidate.
Look in particular at the men this week. Their support for the generic republican candidate is extremely high. This level of support has been quite consistent over the last month. I think that we have reached new territory for the support of the generic republican candidate with regards to men.
Women spiked last week but they have returned to their 50-50 support.
The results can be seen in the tables below:
Generic Ballot
Overall
Time Span : Repub / Democrat / Difference
Jan 19 - 25/09 : 35.06% / 42.03% / -6.97%
Jan 26 - 01/09 : 38.15% / 42.31% / -4.16%
Feb 02 - 08/09 : 38.78% / 40.45% / -1.67%
Feb 09 - 15/09 : 39.15% / 41.43% / -2.28%
Feb 16 - 22/09 : 36.80% / 41.26% / -4.46%
Feb 23 - 01/09 : 38.79% / 41.49% / -2.70%
Mar 02 - 08/09 : 38.26% / 42.07% / -3.81%
Mar 09 - 15/09 : 40.80% / 39.46% / 1.34%
Mar 16 - 22/09 : 38.39% / 40.92% / -2.53%
Mar 23 - 29/09 : 37.98% / 41.50% / -3.52%
Mar 30 - 05/09 : 39.12% / 40.26% / -1.14%
Apr 06 - 12/09 : 38.36% / 38.17% / 0.19%
Apr 13 - 19/09 : 39.14% / 38.95% / 0.19%
Apr 20 - 26/09 : 40.95% / 37.85% / 3.10%
Apr 27 - 03/09 : 40.11% / 39.41% / 0.70%
May 04 - 10/09 : 40.12% / 39.31% / 0.81%
May 11 - 17/09 : 39.27% / 39.86% / -0.59%
May 18 - 24/09 : 38.33% / 40.84% / -2.51%
May 25 - 31/09 : 37.46% / 38.49% / -1.03%
June 01 - 07/09 : 40.13% / 39.97% / 0.16%
June 08 - 14/09 : 38.88% / 38.96% / -0.08%
June 15 - 21/09 : 38.99% / 41.31% / -2.32%
June 22 - 28/09 : 40.88% / 38.65% / 2.23%
June 29 - 05/09 : 41.00% / 38.00% / 3.00%
July 06 - 12/09 : 40.48% / 36.82% / 3.66%
July 13 - 19/09 : 41.66% / 37.94% / 3.72%
July 20 - 26/09 : 41.52% / 39.25% / 2.27%
July 27 - 02/09 : 43.25% / 37.53% / 5.72%
Aug 03 - 09/09 : 42.24% / 38.24% / 4.00%
Aug 10 - 16/09 : 43.06% / 37.57% / 5.49%
Aug 17 - 23/09 : 42.85% / 38.48% / 4.37%
Aug 24 - 30/09 : 43.15% / 36.40% / 6.75%
Aug 31 - 06/09 : 43.56% / 37.14% / 6.42%
Sep 07 - 13/09 : 41.02% / 40.10% / 0.92%
Sep 14 - 20/09 : 42.09% / 37.80% / 4.29%
Sep 21 - 27/09 : 42.23% / 39.63% / 2.60%
Sep 28 - 04/09 : 42.98% / 38.91% / 4.07%
Oct 05 - 11/09 : 41.02% / 38.63% / 2.39%
Oct 12 - 18/09 : 42.43% / 36.79% / 5.64%
Oct 19 - 25/09 : 42.30% / 37.89% / 4.41%
Oct 26 - 01/09 : 42.13% / 37.61% / 4.52%
Nov 02 - 08/09 : 43.26% / 36.80% / 6.46%
Nov 09 - 15/09 : 43.62% / 38.47% / 5.15%
Nov 16 - 22/09 : 44.45% / 36.54% / 7.91%
Nov 23 - 29/09 : 43.80% / 37.29% / 6.51%
Dec 01 - 06/09 : 42.90% / 38.67% / 4.23%
Dec 07 - 13/09 : 44.06% / 36.68% / 7.38%
Dec 14 - 20/09 : 44.42% / 36.07% / 8.35%
Dec 21 - 27/09 : 43.25% / 38.46% / 4.79%
Dec 28 - 03/10 : 44.28% / 34.84% / 9.44%
Jan 04 - 10/10 : 45.41% / 36.26% / 9.15%
Jan 11 - 17/10 : 45.39% / 36.64% / 8.75%
Jan 18 - 24/10 : 45.65% / 36.97% / 8.68%
Jan 25 - 31/10 : 44.70% / 37.92% / 6.78%
Extremely consistent numbers regarding support for the generic republican candidate with a significant increase since December 7, 2009, however support the the generic democratic candidate had been fluctuating within a small interval from 36% to 38%. The week of December 28 was mere statistical noise. The generic democrat has returned to the 36% range.
Generic Ballot
Overall (4-week avg)
Time Span : Repub / Democrat / Difference
7/20 - 8/16/09 : 42.52% / 38.15% / 4.37%
7/27 - 8/23/09 : 42.85% / 37.96% / 4.90%
8/03 - 8/30/09 : 42.83% / 37.67% / 5.15%
8/10 - 9/06/09 : 43.16% / 37.40% / 5.76%
8/17 - 9/13/09 : 42.65% / 38.03% / 4.62%
8/24 - 9/20/09 : 42.46% / 37.86% / 4.59%
8/31 - 9/27/09 : 42.23% / 38.67% / 3.56%
9/07 - 10/04/09 : 42.08% / 39.11% / 2.97%
9/14 - 10/11/09 : 42.08% / 38.74% / 3.34%
9/21 - 10/18/09 : 42.19% / 38.49% / 3.70%
9/28 - 10/25/09 : 42.18% / 38.06% / 4.13%
10/05 - 11/01/09 : 41.97% / 37.73% / 4.24%
10/12 - 11/08/09 : 42.53% / 37.27% / 5.26%
10/19 - 11/15/09 : 42.83% / 37.69% / 5.14%
10/26 - 11/22/09 : 43.37% / 37.36% / 6.01%
11/02 - 11/29/09 : 43.78% / 37.28% / 6.51%
11/09 - 12/06/09 : 43.69% / 37.74% / 5.95%
11/16 - 12/13/09 : 43.80% / 37.30% / 6.51%
11/23 - 12/20/09 : 43.80% / 37.18% / 6.62%
11/30 - 12/27/09 : 43.66% / 37.47% / 6.19%
12/07 - 01/03/10 : 44.00% / 36.51% / 7.49%
12/14 - 01/10/10 : 44.34% / 36.41% / 7.93%
12/21 - 01/17/10 : 44.58% / 36.55% / 8.03%
12/28 - 01/24/10 : 45.18% / 36.18% / 9.01%
01/04 - 01/31/10 : 45.29% / 36.95% / 8.34%
This is an unmistakable trend. The generic republican is increasing while the generic democratic candidate is decreasing. Very consistent numbers.
Generic Ballot
Republicans
Time Span : Repub / Democrat / Difference
Aug 03 - 09/09 : 81.27% / 04.67% / 76.60%
Aug 10 - 16/09 : 78.36% / 10.51% / 67.85%
Aug 17 - 23/09 : 80.28% / 07.51% / 72.77%
Aug 24 - 30/09 : 77.86% / 06.87% / 70.99%
Aug 31 - 06/09 : 80.63% / 06.34% / 74.29%
Sep 07 - 13/09 : 75.56% / 09.51% / 66.05%
Sep 14 - 20/09 : 76.65% / 09.42% / 67.23%
Sep 21 - 27/09 : 74.24% / 10.97% / 63.27%
Sep 28 - 04/09 : 80.05% / 06.76% / 73.29%
Oct 05 - 11/09 : 74.37% / 13.25% / 61.12%
Oct 12 - 18/09 : 77.14% / 8.97% / 68.17%
Oct 19 - 25/09 : 76.31% / 10.09% / 66.22%
Oct 26 - 01/09 : 77.90% / 7.36% / 70.54%
Nov 02 - 08/09 : 82.21% / 6.96% / 75.25%
Nov 09 - 15/09 : 81.23% / 7.35% / 73.88%
Nov 16 - 22/09 : 78.79% / 10.04% / 68.75%
Nov 23 - 29/09 : 81.10% / 7.70% / 73.40%
Dec 01 - 06/09 : 80.48% / 8.29% / 72.19%
Dec 07 - 13/09 : 78.36% / 7.78% / 70.58%
Dec 14 - 20/09 : 80.98% / 7.50% / 73.48%
Dec 21 - 27/09 : 80.15% / 7.66% / 72.49%
Dec 28 - 03/10 : 79.15% / 9.83% / 69.32%
Jan 04 - 10/10 : 80.24% / 7.79% / 72.45%
Jan 11 - 17/10 : 83.84% / 5.67% / 78.17%
Jan 18 - 24/10 : 82.66% / 5.91% / 76.75%
Jan 25 - 31/10 : 79.83% / 8.50% / 71.33%
Very consistent numbers.
The support (by republicans) for the generic republican candidate appears to have risen to the low- 80% range.
Generic Ballot
Republicans (4-week avg)
Time Span : Repub / Democrat / Difference
7/20 - 8/16/09 : 79.15% / 7.71% / 71.44%
7/27 - 8/23/09 : 79.96% / 7.74% / 72.22%
8/03 - 8/30/09 : 79.44% / 7.39% / 72.05%
8/10 - 9/06/09 : 79.28% / 7.81% / 71.48%
8/17 - 9/13/09 : 78.58% / 7.56% / 71.03%
8/24 - 9/20/09 : 77.68% / 8.04% / 69.64%
8/31 - 9/27/09 : 76.77% / 9.06% / 67.71%
9/07 - 10/04/09 : 76.63% / 9.17% / 67.46%
9/14 - 10/11/09 : 76.33% / 10.10% / 66.23%
9/21 - 10/18/09 : 76.45% / 9.99% / 66.46%
9/28 - 10/25/09 : 76.97% / 9.77% / 67.20%
10/05 - 11/01/09 : 76.43% / 9.92% / 66.51%
10/12 - 11/08/09 : 78.39% / 8.35% / 70.05%
10/19 - 11/15/09 : 79.41% / 7.94% / 71.47%
10/26 - 11/22/09 : 80.03% / 7.93% / 72.11%
11/02 - 11/29/09 : 80.83% / 8.01% / 72.82%
11/09 - 12/06/09 : 80.40% / 8.35% / 72.06%
11/16 - 12/13/09 : 79.68% / 8.45% / 71.23%
11/23 - 12/20/09 : 80.23% / 7.82% / 72.41%
11/30 - 12/27/09 : 79.99% / 7.81% / 72.19%
12/07 - 01/03/10 : 79.66% / 8.19% / 71.47%
12/14 - 01/10/10 : 80.13% / 8.20% / 71.94%
12/21 - 01/17/10 : 80.85% / 7.74% / 73.11%
12/28 - 01/24/10 : 81.47% / 7.30% / 74.17%
01/04 - 01/31/10 : 81.64% / 6.97% / 74.68%
Very consistent numbers with a slight upward trend.
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Democrats
Time Span : Repub / Democrat / Difference
Aug 03 - 09/09 : 09.69% / 78.87% / -69.18%
Aug 10 - 16/09 : 13.76% / 73.38% / -59.62%
Aug 17 - 23/09 : 11.52% / 76.35% / -64.83%
Aug 24 - 30/09 : 16.24% / 70.82% / -54.58%
Aug 31 - 06/09 : 11.91% / 75.88% / -63.97%
Sep 07 - 13/09 : 11.05% / 76.18% / -65.13%
Sep 14 - 20/09 : 11.94% / 76.46% / -64.52%
Sep 21 - 27/09 : 09.54% / 78.85% / -69.31%
Sep 28 - 04/09 : 12.35% / 78.64% / -66.29%
Oct 05 - 11/09 : 10.16% / 73.61% / -63.45%
Oct 12 - 18/09 : 11.45% / 74.98% / -63.53%
Oct 19 - 25/09 : 12.29% / 76.60% / -64.31%
Oct 26 - 01/09 : 13.46% / 74.86% / -61.40%
Nov 02 - 08/09 : 10.13% / 75.55% / -65.42%
Nov 09 - 15/09 : 12.87% / 76.63% / -63.76%
Nov 16 - 22/09 : 14.99% / 73.03% / -58.04%
Nov 23 - 29/09 : 11.19% / 73.98% / -62.79%
Dec 01 - 06/09 : 13.06% / 76.97% / -63.91%
Dec 07 - 13/09 : 17.51% / 71.05% / -53.54%
Dec 14 - 20/09 : 14.53% / 72.55% / -58.02%
Dec 21 - 27/09 : 10.78% / 81.63% / -70.85%
Dec 28 - 03/10 : 15.53% / 70.53% / -55.00%
Jan 04 - 10/10 : 12.24% / 75.34% / -63.10%
Jan 11 - 17/10 : 12.56% / 76.76% / -64.20%
Jan 18 - 24/10 : 12.66% / 75.73% / -63.07%
Jan 25 - 31/10 : 13.41% / 75.18% / -61.77%
Very consistent over the last four weeks.
Generic Ballot
Democrats (4-week avg)
Time Span : Repub / Democrat / Difference
7/20 - 8/16/09 : 12.02% / 75.96% / -63.94%
7/27 - 8/23/09 : 11.93% / 75.59% / -63.65%
8/03 - 8/30/09 : 12.80% / 74.86% / -62.05%
8/10 - 9/06/09 : 13.36% / 74.11% / -60.75%
8/17 - 9/13/09 : 12.68% / 74.81% / -62.13%
8/24 - 9/20/09 : 12.79% / 74.84% / -62.05%
8/31 - 9/27/09 : 11.11% / 76.84% / -65.73%
9/07 - 10/04/09 : 11.22% / 77.53% / -66.31%
9/14 - 10/11/09 : 11.00% / 76.89% / -65.89%
9/21 - 10/18/09 : 10.88% / 76.52% / -65.65%
9/28 - 10/25/09 : 11.56% / 75.96% / -64.40%
10/05 - 11/01/09 : 11.84% / 75.01% / -63.17%
10/12 - 11/08/09 : 11.83% / 75.50% / -63.67%
10/19 - 11/15/09 : 12.19% / 75.91% / -63.72%
10/26 - 11/22/09 : 12.86% / 75.02% / -62.16%
11/02 - 11/29/09 : 12.30% / 74.80% / -62.50%
11/09 - 12/06/09 : 13.03% / 75.15% / -62.13%
11/16 - 12/13/09 : 14.19% / 73.76% / -59.57%
11/23 - 12/20/09 : 14.07% / 73.64% / -59.57%
11/30 - 12/27/09 : 13.97% / 75.55% / -61.58%
12/07 - 01/03/10 : 14.59% / 73.94% / -59.35%
12/14 - 01/10/10 : 13.27% / 75.01% / -61.74%
12/21 - 01/17/10 : 12.78% / 76.07% / -63.29%
12/28 - 01/24/10 : 13.25% / 74.59% / -61.34%
01/04 - 01/31/10 : 12.72% / 75.75% / -63.04%
Very consistent numbers.
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Independents
Time Span : Repub / Democrat / Difference
Jan 19 - 25/09 : 31.00% / 25.00% / 6.00%
Jan 26 - 01/09 : 36.00% / 26.00% / 10.00%
Feb 02 - 08/09 : 34.00% / 28.00% / 6.00%
Feb 09 - 15/09 : 39.00% / 23.00% / 16.00%
Feb 16 - 22/09 : 32.00% / 22.00% / 10.00%
Feb 23 - 01/09 : 35.00% / 25.00% / 10.00%
Mar 02 - 08/09 : 37.00% / 25.00% / 12.00%
Mar 09 - 15/09 : 38.00% / 22.00% / 16.00%
Mar 16 - 22/09 : 36.00% / 24.00% / 12.00%
Mar 23 - 29/09 : 36.00% / 24.00% / 12.00%
Mar 30 - 05/09 : 40.00% / 25.00% / 15.00%
Apr 06 - 12/09 : 34.00% / 23.00% / 11.00%
Apr 13 - 19/09 : 38.00% / 20.00% / 18.00%
Apr 20 - 26/09 : 37.00% / 24.00% / 13.00%
Apr 27 - 03/09 : 36.00% / 22.00% / 14.00%
May 04 - 10/09 : 37.96% / 23.14% / 14.82%
May 11 - 17/09 : 37.58% / 21.77% / 15.81%
May 18 - 24/09 : 32.81% / 26.17% / 6.64%
May 25 - 31/09 : 32.06% / 19.94% / 12.12%
June 01 - 07/09 : 37.69% / 21.18% / 16.51%
June 08 - 14/09 : 33.37% / 22.53% / 10.84%
June 15 - 21/09 : 38.51% / 22.78% / 15.73%
June 22 - 28/09 : 37.26% / 23.05% / 14.21%
June 29 - 05/09 : 37.00% / 21.00% / 16.00%
July 06 - 12/09 : 39.40% / 18.83% / 20.57%
July 13 - 19/09 : 40.74% / 21.14% / 19.60%
July 20 - 26/09 : 41.36% / 23.47% / 17.89%
July 27 - 02/09 : 43.27% / 21.60% / 21.67%
Aug 03 - 09/09 : 41.86% / 21.80% / 20.06%
Aug 10 - 16/09 : 44.83% / 17.96% / 26.87%
Aug 17 - 23/09 : 42.61% / 22.84% / 19.77%
Aug 24 - 30/09 : 43.04% / 20.08% / 22.96%
Aug 30 - 06/09 : 43.01% / 20.62% / 22.39%
Sep 07 - 13/09 : 40.30% / 28.29% / 12.01%
Sep 14 - 20/09 : 42.17% / 19.50% / 22.67%
Sep 21 - 27/09 : 47.59% / 21.86% / 25.73%
Sep 28 - 04/09 : 39.58% / 24.29% / 15.29%
Oct 05 - 11/09 : 41.33% / 24.47% / 16.86%
Oct 12 - 18/09 : 40.35% / 22.70% / 17.65%
Oct 19 - 25/09 : 41.18% / 21.49% / 19.69%
Oct 26 - 01/09 : 39.36% / 22.85% / 16.51%
Nov 02 - 08/09 : 43.10% / 20.15% / 22.95%
Nov 09 - 15/09 : 41.33% / 24.48% / 16.85%
Nov 16 - 22/09 : 43.78% / 19.98% / 23.80%
Nov 23 - 29/09 : 43.40% / 24.27% / 19.13%
Dec 01 - 06/09 : 39.81% / 23.30% / 16.51%
Dec 07 - 13/09 : 43.90% / 19.34% / 24.56%
Dec 14 - 20/09 : 43.36% / 19.22% / 24.14%
Dec 21 - 27/09 : 42.34% / 30.12% / 12.22%
Dec 28 - 03/10 : 47.91% / 17.14% / 30.77%
Jan 04 - 10/10 : 47.13% / 21.53% / 25.60%
Jan 11 - 17/10 : 43.85% / 21.76% / 22.09%
Jan 18 - 24/10 : 45.79% / 23.75% / 22.04%
Jan 25 - 31/10 : 44.78% / 25.38% / 19.40%
More evidence that the week of December 21, 2009 was an outlier.
Generic Ballot
Independents (4-week avg)
Time Span : Repub / Democrat / Difference
7/20 - 8/16/09 : 42.83% / 21.21% / 21.62%
7/27 - 8/23/09 : 43.14% / 21.05% / 22.09%
8/03 - 8/30/09 : 43.09% / 20.67% / 22.42%
8/10 - 9/06/09 : 43.37% / 20.38% / 23.00%
8/17 - 9/13/09 : 42.24% / 22.96% / 19.28%
8/24 - 9/20/09 : 42.13% / 22.12% / 20.01%
8/31 - 9/27/09 : 43.27% / 22.57% / 20.70%
9/07 - 10/04/09 : 42.41% / 23.49% / 18.93%
9/14 - 10/11/09 : 42.67% / 22.53% / 20.14%
9/21 - 10/18/09 : 42.21% / 23.33% / 18.88%
9/28 - 10/25/09 : 40.61% / 23.24% / 17.37%
10/05 - 11/01/09 : 40.56% / 22.88% / 17.68%
10/12 - 11/08/09 : 41.00% / 21.80% / 19.20%
10/19 - 11/15/09 : 41.24% / 22.24% / 19.00%
10/26 - 11/22/09 : 41.89% / 21.87% / 20.03%
11/02 - 11/29/09 : 42.90% / 22.22% / 20.68%
11/09 - 12/06/09 : 42.08% / 23.01% / 19.07%
11/16 - 12/13/09 : 42.72% / 21.72% / 21.00%
11/23 - 12/20/09 : 42.62% / 21.53% / 21.09%
11/30 - 12/27/09 : 42.35% / 23.00% / 19.36%
12/07 - 01/03/10 : 44.38% / 21.46% / 22.92%
12/14 - 01/10/10 : 45.19% / 22.00% / 23.18%
12/21 - 01/17/10 : 45.31% / 22.64% / 22.67%
12/28 - 01/24/10 : 46.17% / 21.05% / 25.13%
01/04 - 01/31/10 : 45.39% / 23.11% / 22.28%
Very consistent numbers with a slight upward trend for the generic republican.
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Men
Time Span : Repub / Democrat / Difference
Sept 07 - 13/09 : 46.13% / 35.10% / 11.03%
Sept 14 - 20/09 : 42.17% / 19.50% / 22.67%
Sept 21 - 27/09 : 43.43% / 39.26% / 4.17%
Sept 28 - 04/09 : 47.52% / 33.48% / 14.04%
Oct 05 - 11/09 : 45.04% / 36.60% / 8.44%
Oct 12 - 18/09 : 44.44% / 33.25% / 11.19%
Oct 19 - 25/09 : 44.18% / 38.41% / 5.77%
Oct 26 - 01/09 : 43.07% / 35.14% / 7.93%
Nov 02 - 08/09 : 49.85% / 31.98% / 17.87%
Nov 09 - 15/09 : 48.07% / 36.18% / 11.89%
Nov 16 - 22/09 : 48.40% / 34.54% / 13.86%
Nov 23 - 29/09 : 47.81% / 34.67% / 13.14%
Dec 01 - 06/09 : 46.37% / 35.71% / 10.66%
Dec 07 - 13/09 : 47.63% / 32.40% / 15.23%
Dec 14 - 20/09 : 49.95% / 30.56% / 19.39%
Dec 21 - 27/09 : 49.44% / 31.31% / 18.13%
Dec 28 - 03/10 : 49.39% / 31.53% / 17.86%
Jan 04 - 10/10 : 51.47% / 31.05% / 20.42%
Jan 11 - 17/10 : 47.34% / 34.43% / 12.91%
Jan 18 - 24/10 : 45.99% / 35.14% / 10.85%
Jan 25 - 31/10 : 49.04% / 34.66% / 14.38%
Very consistent support for the generic republican.
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Women
Time Span : Repub / Democrat / Difference
Sept 07 - 13/09 : 36.45% / 44.58% / -8.13%
Sept 14 - 20/09 : 39.40% / 39.88% / -0.48%
Sept 21 - 27/09 : 41.15% / 39.97% / 1.18%
Sept 28 - 04/09 : 38.96% / 43.73% / -4.77%
Oct 05 - 11/09 : 37.34% / 40.50% / -3.16%
Oct 12 - 18/09 : 40.62% / 39.97% / 0.65%
Oct 19 - 25/09 : 40.56% / 37.41% / 3.15%
Oct 26 - 01/09 : 41.27% / 39.90% / 1.37%
Nov 02 - 08/09 : 37.63% / 40.92% / -3.29%
Nov 09 - 15/09 : 39.69% / 40.50% / -0.81%
Nov 16 - 22/09 : 41.02% / 38.28% / 2.74%
Nov 23 - 29/09 : 40.31% / 39.57% / 0.74%
Dec 01 - 06/09 : 39.84% / 41.28% / -1.44%
Dec 07 - 13/09 : 40.79% / 40.61% / 0.18%
Dec 14 - 20/09 : 39.57% / 40.90% / -1.33%
Dec 21 - 27/09 : 38.00% / 44.53% / -6.53%
Dec 28 - 03/10 : 39.93% / 37.66% / 2.27%
Jan 04 - 10/10 : 40.05% / 40.86% / -0.81%
Jan 11 - 17/10 : 43.66% / 38.60% / 5.06%
Jan 18 - 24/10 : 45.33% / 38.65% / 6.68%
Jan 25 - 31/10 : 40.64% / 40.99% / -0.35%
Sadly, it appears asif the improvement over the prior two weeks was statistical noise. ‘Tis a shame.
History of the Generic Ballot:
Time Span : Dem : Rep
2-Aug-09 : 38% : 43%
26-Jul-09 : 39% : 42%
20-Jul-09 : 38% : 42%
13-Jul-09 : 38% : 42%
6-Jul-09 : 37% : 40%
29-Jun-09 : 38% : 41%
22-Jun-09 : 39% : 41%
15-Jun-09 : 41% : 39%
8-Jun-09 : 39% : 39%
1-Jun-09 : 40% : 40%
25-May-09 : 38% : 37%
18-May-09 : 41% : 38%
11-May-09 : 40% : 39%
4-May-09 : 39% : 40%
27-Apr-09 : 39% : 40%
20-Apr-09 : 38% : 41%
13-Apr-09 : 39% : 39%
6-Apr-09 : 38% : 38%
30-Mar-09 : 40% : 39%
23-Mar-09 : 42% : 38%
16-Mar-09 : 41% : 38%
15-Mar-09 : 39% : 41%
8-Mar-09 : 42% : 38%
1-Mar-09 : 41% : 39%
22-Feb-09 : 41% : 37%
15-Feb-09 : 41% : 39%
8-Feb-09 : 40% : 39%
1-Feb-09 : 42% : 38%
25-Jan-09 : 42% : 35%
18-Jan-09 : 42% : 35%
11-Jan-09 : 42% : 36%
31-Dec-08 : 43% : 37%
21-Dec-08 : 44% : 36%
14-Dec-08 : 42% : 37%
7-Dec-08 : 42% : 38%
30-Nov-08 : 43% : 40%
23-Nov-08 : 44% : 39%
16-Nov-08 : 42% : 38%
9-Nov-08 : 43% : 41%
2-Nov-08 : 47% : 41%
26-Oct-08 : 47% : 40%
19-Oct-08 : 45% : 39%
12-Oct-08 : 46% : 38%
5-Oct-08 : 45% : 37%
28-Sep-08 : 46% : 37%
21-Sep-08 : 45% : 38%
14-Sep-08 : 44% : 38%
7-Sep-08 : 45% : 37%
31-Aug-08 : 46% : 36%
24-Aug-08 : 46% : 35%
17-Aug-08 : 46% : 36%
10-Aug-08 : 45% : 37%
3-Aug-08 : 46% : 36%
27-Jul-08 : 47% : 34%
20-Jul-08 : 45% : 36%
13-Jul-08 : 46% : 36%
6-Jul-08 : 47% : 34%
29-Jun-08 : 47% : 35%
22-Jun-08 : 47% : 34%
15-Jun-08 : 48% : 34%
8-Jun-08 : 47% : 34%
22-May-08 : 47% : 39%
29-Apr-08 : 46% : 41%
6-Apr-08 : 43% : 37%
13-Mar-08 : 44% : 40%
14-Feb-08 : 44% : 40%
15-Jan-08 : 43% : 38%
9-Dec-07 : 46% : 36%
4-Nov-07 : 46% : 35%
4-Oct-07 : 48% : 36%
4-Sep-07 : 50% : 32%
1-Aug-07 : 47% : 37%
17-Jul-07 : 46% : 37%
21-Jun-07 : 46% : 34%
31-May-07 : 47% : 36%
10-Apr-07 : 45% : 35%
2004, all year : democrats +4% to +7%
2005, spring : democrats +2% to +4%
August 11th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
frank, does ras provide regional xtabs?
August 11th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Arriba,
No they don’t
Frank
August 11th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Frank, this can’t be right. The mainstream media declared the GOP dead in March. Thus, your numbers must be fabricated by astroturfing conservatives.
Seriously though, thanks for this. This is very interesting. Obama seems a notch or two in front of most Democrats in terms of popularity. His liberal policies remain less popular than the man himself. I wonder how long that lasts.
August 11th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Frank:
Well would you say we have the numbers to take back Congress in 2012.
August 11th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
I meant 2010.
August 11th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Frank:
I think you might make a numbers guy out of me yet. Thanks for this, and more importantly thanks for the explanation.
August 11th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Charles,
Taking back the congress is going to be hard to do in 2010. Many seats will need to be flipped in the House and ten seats will need to flip in the Senate.
I do think that there will be gains in both the House and the Senate, but I doubt (at this point in time) that it could be done.
It will take a “perfect storm” for the GOP to take back either side of congress.
The party not in the White House almost always gains seats in the off-year elections. Quick quiz, when was the last time that a party in the WH gained members of the House and Senate?
Frank
August 18th, 2009 at 10:11 am
I think we are seeing the beginning of a perfect storm, and hopefully it will intensify rapidly.
And as Ryan said, thanks for the explanation, Frank.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:54 am
JoAnne,
My pleasure.
Frank
August 18th, 2009 at 11:21 am
#7 Frank,
Quiz answer……the Republicans expanded their number of seats in the House and Senate in the mid-term elections of 2002.
Marv
August 18th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Small business is leading the charge in the way the polls are changing.
August 25th, 2009 at 7:22 am
[...] Polls Obama Job Approval Rating Obama - National Security Obama - Economy Obama Health-Care Generic Ballot Congressional Matchup Polls Loading… @import [...]
August 25th, 2009 at 11:12 am
I thought I’d throw some stat stuff in that shows the real life value to what frank has been providing.
A number of years ago, a guy named tufte came up with a simple formula that shows how the midterm elections are likely to turn out. Altho it has been modified by a number of people, most notably jacobson, tufte’s numbers have the value of parsimony.
In stat form, tufte’s numbers are:
vote loss for the president’s party = -11.08 + .133 (presidential approval rating) + .033 (change in real per capita income).
What this means, in real terms, is that if real per capita income goes up or down by 10%, then the pres party’s share of vote goes down by 6%. Much more importantly, for every 9% drop in the pres popularity, his party’s vote percentage will decline by 1.4%. Since bho’s popularity has dropped about 27 points, that means disregarding income change, the dem’s share of the vote will decline by 15%. This will cause a massive decline in the dem’s house representation, probably a loss of about 35-40 seats.
August 25th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
arriba…if you’re right…yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
August 25th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
I hope so too, joanne. It seems unlikely to me that bho’s approval will measurably increase by spring of 2010, which is the key time to pay attention to. As well, real pci is unlikely to increase very much if at all.
Let me just poli sci babble about something I just wrote, please. I said the spring of the midterms is the key time. The reason polscientists figure for this is because quality challrngers must be recruited by the party.
If things look good for victory, the reps will have little trouble finding them. But if you look at years like 06, the dems had plenty of good (high name recognition, generally) challengers, the reps had very few.
August 25th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
“It seems unlikely to me that bho’s approval will measurably increase by spring of 2010″
i think the christmas sales’ numbers will be abysmal