The unemployment rate fell in July, falling to 9.4% from 9.5% in June.
So is Obamonomics working? Are Barack Obama’s policies turning the economy around? No doubt the mainstream media will try to spin it that way.
But, no, the economy is not necessarily getting any better. The unemployment rate is measured through a survey of households by the Department of Labor. The government asks people whether they are looking for work, and if they have a job. Basically, if you are looking for a job, and you don’t have one, you are unemployed.
Thus, if people drop out of the labor force or stop looking for a job, they are not considered unemployed. The drop in the unemployment rate can be a reflection of the fact that many people have given up looking for a job.
So, a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate hardly means that the recession is over.
However, I will say this much, given the stability in the capital markets, some signs of life in business activity, and most Asian economies starting to rise again, it appears our economy has stopped collapsing.
The sky is not falling, as we feared. However, a late 2009 recovery was predicted to occur way back when George W. Bush was president.
The question now is, will things get better? Will we have the economic growth necessary to make America truly America again? We shall see.
See more on the unemployment rate below.
August 7th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
The U.S. economy has failed to create any meaningful growth in private sector jobs over the last decade. Here’s a good article from the New York Times, if you can believe it:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/08/business/economy/08charts.html?em
If this is truly a trend, then it seems we only have government jobs in our future.
August 8th, 2009 at 7:04 am
Ignatius, first full disclosure, I agree this news falls more into the “less bad” category than “good news” variety.
With that said, there is also some actual good news to be found (from fivethirtyeight.com):
– May and June job loss estimates have been revised *downward*.
– Hourly earnings improved.
– The average workweek lengthened, particularly in manufacturing.
– The manufacturing sector added jobs on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
– The NASDAQ will open today about 33 percent higher than when Obama took office.
I will assert that a half way decent economic recovery will not be politically beneficial to the GOP in 2010 and especially 2012. A strong recovery would be very bad for the GOP politically. What’s good for the country is historically not good for the opposition party. Do you agree?
If so, what are you rooting for, strong recovery now, or just weak enough to give GOP a better shot?
August 8th, 2009 at 7:29 am
Here’s an interesting Q&A article on unemployment statistics:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/07/AR2009080703267.html
August 17th, 2009 at 4:44 am
[...] While July unemployment numbers seem superficially better, they don’t reflect reality for most Americans. In mid-July, Michigan reported unemployment at 15.2%, the highest in the nation. And the change may reflect folks hopeless about finding a job. [...]
August 22nd, 2009 at 10:08 am
[...] as we reported here, unemployment had dipped in July nationally, going from 9.5% to 9.4%. The rise in unemployment from [...]