Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Read below to see the details.
The President’s approval index is now at -17.00%
Please look through the data tables below and let us know your thoughts as to the trends that you see.
Here are the trends:
Independents (3 days)
Time Span : Strongly / Strongly / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
19-Jul-10 : 18.28% / 49.45% / -31.17%
20-Jul-10 : 18.49% / 47.81% / -29.32%
22-Jul-10 : 21.00% / 42.00% / -21.00%
23-Jul-10 : 22.00% / 44.00% / -22.00%
24-Jul-10 : 19.64% / 49.78% / -29.32%
25-Jul-10 : 17.21% / 52.00% / -29.32%
26-Jul-10 : 19.00% / 52.00% / -33.00%
27-Jul-10 : 20.73% / 49.25% / -28.52%
28-Jul-10 : 20.35% / 44.80% / -24.45%
29-Jul-10 : 17.00% / 46.00% / -29.00%
30-Jul-10 : 15.54% / 46.98% / -31.44%
31-Jul-10 : 14.00% / 54.00% / -40.00%
01-Aug-10 : 16.00% / 48.00% / -32.00%
02-Aug-10 : 19.00% / 48.00% / -29.00%
03-Aug-10 : 22.00% / 42.00% / -20.00%
04-Aug-10 : 20.00% / 47.00% / -27.00%
05-Aug-10 : 21.00% / 51.00% / -30.00%
06-Aug-10 : 23.00% / 50.00% / -27.00%
07-Aug-10 : 26.61% / 45.90% / -19.29%
08-Aug-10 : 26.84% / 41.54% / -14.70%
09-Aug-10 : 21.00% / 44.00% / -23.00%
10-Aug-10 : 17.00% / 50.00% / -33.00%
11-Aug-10 : 14.00% / 51.00% / -37.00%
12-Aug-10 : 16.00% / 53.00% / -37.00%
13-Aug-10 : 15.00% / 47.00% / -32.00%
14-Aug-10 : 15.79% / 48.35% / -32.56%
15-Aug-10 : 13.50% / 47.61% / -34.11%
16-Aug-10 : 12.00% / 53.00% / -41.00%
17-Aug-10 : 15.00% / 52.00% / -37.00%
18-Aug-10 : 16.00% / 54.00% / -38.00%
Pure statistical noise. Yes, it’s true. Half of all independents strongly disapprove of the President’s job performance.
It’s time to change the threshold for strongly approve to the 15% to 19% range.
The threshold for strongly disapprove has been increased again to the 46% to 52% range. Should I change this one back?.
These are the strongly approve/stongly disapprove numbers for the last 30 days.
Overall (3 days)
Time Span : Strongly / Strongly / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
19-Jul-10 : 27.55% / 43.12% / -15.57%
20-Jul-10 : 26.85% / 43.84% / -16.99%
22-Jul-10 : 27.00% / 44.00% / -17.00%
23-Jul-10 : 27.00% / 44.00% / -17.00%
24-Jul-10 : 26.48% / 43.93% / -17.43%
25-Jul-10 : 25.19% / 45.00% / -19.81%
26-Jul-10 : 25.00% / 44.00% / -19.00%
27-Jul-10 : 25.30% / 45.21% / -19.91%
28-Jul-10 : 26.69% / 42.30% / -15.61%
29-Jul-10 : 27.00% / 43.00% / -16.00%
30-Jul-10 : 26.49% / 41.85% / -15.36%
31-Jul-10 : 25.00% / 45.00% / -20.00%
01-Aug-10 : 25.00% / 44.00% / -19.00%
02-Aug-10 : 26.00% / 43.00% / -17.00%
03-Aug-10 : 27.00% / 42.00% / -15.00%
04-Aug-10 : 27.00% / 42.00% / -15.00%
05-Aug-10 : 28.00% / 42.00% / -14.00%
06-Aug-10 : 30.00% / 42.00% / -12.00%
07-Aug-10 : 30.35% / 40.92% / -10.57%
08-Aug-10 : 31.00% / 41.28% / -10.28%
09-Aug-10 : 28.00% / 43.00% / -15.00%
10-Aug-10 : 26.00% / 45.00% / -19.00%
11-Aug-10 : 24.00% / 46.00% / -22.00%
12-Aug-10 : 25.00% / 45.00% / -20.00%
13-Aug-10 : 26.00% / 42.00% / -16.00%
14-Aug-10 : 25.99% / 42.02% / -16.03%
15-Aug-10 : 26.17% / 42.81% / -16.64%
16-Aug-10 : 26.00% / 45.00% / -19.00%
17-Aug-10 : 26.00% / 45.00% / -19.00%
18-Aug-10 : 27.00% / 44.00% / -17.00%
Notice the classic outlier on August 6-8.
The current estimate for the strongly approve number is in the 24% – 27% range. This has been revised.
The current estimate for the strongly disapprove number is in the 38% – 44% range.
Let’s compare these strongly approve/strongly disapprove numbers with the 30-day trend.
Overall (30 days)
Time Span : Strongly / Strongly / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
19-Jul-10 : 26.60% / 42.36% / -15.75%
20-Jul-10 : 26.61% / 42.41% / -15.80%
22-Jul-10 : 26.64% / 42.42% / -17.00%
23-Jul-10 : 26.65% / 42.44% / -17.00%
24-Jul-10 : 26.61% / 42.46% / -17.43%
25-Jul-10 : 26.63% / 42.47% / -19.81%
26-Jul-10 : 26.54% / 42.29% / -15.75%
27-Jul-10 : 26.42% / 42.40% / -15.98%
28-Jul-10 : 26.36% / 42.46% / -16.10%
29-Jul-10 : 26.36% / 42.56% / -16.20%
30-Jul-10 : 26.33% / 42.57% / -16.24%
31-Jul-10 : 26.28% / 42.71% / -16.43%
01-Aug-10 : 26.27% / 42.84% / -16.57%
02-Aug-10 : 26.20% / 43.04% / -16.83%
03-Aug-10 : 26.16% / 43.10% / -16.94%
04-Aug-10 : 26.14% / 43.07% / -16.93%
05-Aug-10 : 26.21% / 42.97% / -16.77%
06-Aug-10 : 26.40% / 42.90% / -16.50%
07-Aug-10 : 26.55% / 42.83% / -16.28%
08-Aug-10 : 26.71% / 42.78% / -16.07%
09-Aug-10 : 26.77% / 42.78% / -16.01%
10-Aug-10 : 26.74% / 42.91% / -16.18%
11-Aug-10 : 26.64% / 43.11% / -16.48%
12-Aug-10 : 26.60% / 43.30% / -16.69%
13-Aug-10 : 26.67% / 43.33% / -16.66%
14-Aug-10 : 26.74% / 43.32% / -16.58%
15-Aug-10 : 26.74% / 43.31% / -16.57%
16-Aug-10 : 26.71% / 43.34% / -16.63%
17-Aug-10 : 26.66% / 43.37% / -16.71%
18-Aug-10 : 26.67% / 43.41% / -16.74%
These percentages are very consistent recently.
Here are the spreads for the subgroups for strongly approve and strongly disapprove.
Overall:
19-Jul-10 : 27.55% / 43.12%
20-Jul-10 : 26.85% / 43.84%
22-Jul-10 : 27.00% / 44.00%
23-Jul-10 : 27.00% / 44.00%
24-Jul-10 : 26.48% / 43.93%
25-Jul-10 : 25.19% / 45.00%
26-Jul-10 : 25.00% / 44.00%
27-Jul-10 : 25.30% / 45.21%
28-Jul-10 : 26.69% / 42.30%
29-Jul-10 : 27.00% / 43.00%
30-Jul-10 : 26.49% / 41.85%
31-Jul-10 : 25.00% / 45.00%
01-Aug-10 : 25.00% / 44.00%
02-Aug-10 : 26.00% / 43.00%
03-Aug-10 : 27.00% / 42.00%
04-Aug-10 : 27.00% / 42.00%
05-Aug-10 : 28.00% / 42.00%
06-Aug-10 : 30.00% / 42.00%
07-Aug-10 : 30.35% / 40.92%
08-Aug-10 : 31.00% / 41.28%
09-Aug-10 : 28.00% / 43.00%
10-Aug-10 : 26.00% / 45.00%
11-Aug-10 : 24.00% / 46.00%
12-Aug-10 : 25.00% / 45.00%
13-Aug-10 : 26.00% / 42.00%
14-Aug-10 : 25.99% / 42.02%
15-Aug-10 : 26.17% / 42.81%
16-Aug-10 : 26.00% / 45.00%
17-Aug-10 : 26.00% / 45.00%
18-Aug-10 : 27.00% / 44.00%
See the classic outlier on August 6-8. Is August 16-18 an outlier for strongly disapprove?
Republicans:
19-Jul-10 : 6.53% / 76.36%
20-Jul-10 : 3.19% / 80.84%
22-Jul-10 : 3.00% / 83.00%
23-Jul-10 : 4.00% / 79.00%
24-Jul-10 : 4.58% / 73.62%
25-Jul-10 : 4.77% / 74.20%
26-Jul-10 : 4.00% / 74.00%
27-Jul-10 : 4.09% / 75.94%
28-Jul-10 : 5.02% / 71.86%
29-Jul-10 : 6.00% / 71.00%
30-Jul-10 : 5.46% / 71.25%
31-Jul-10 : 6.00% / 74.00%
01-Aug-10 : 6.00% / 75.00%
02-Aug-10 : 5.00% / 72.00%
03-Aug-10 : 4.00% / 73.00%
04-Aug-10 : 6.00% / 73.00%
05-Aug-10 : 8.00% / 71.00%
06-Aug-10 : 9.00% / 73.00%
07-Aug-10 : 6.86% / 71.25%
08-Aug-10 : 5.13% / 75.86%
09-Aug-10 : 5.00% / 74.00%
10-Aug-10 : 7.00% / 78.00%
11-Aug-10 : 8.00% / 75.00%
12-Aug-10 : 8.00% / 76.00%
13-Aug-10 : 9.00% / 72.00%
14-Aug-10 : 7.71% / 73.11%
15-Aug-10 : 7.89% / 73.50%
16-Aug-10 : 6.00% / 75.00%
17-Aug-10 : 7.00% / 74.00%
18-Aug-10 : 7.00% / 73.00%
There appears to be a new range for strongly approve.
Democrats:
19-Jul-10 : 53.91% / 8.84%
20-Jul-10 : 54.11% / 8.02%
22-Jul-10 : 54.00% / 10.00%
23-Jul-10 : 52.00% / 13.00%
24-Jul-10 : 51.48% / 13.06%
25-Jul-10 : 49.83% / 13.65%
26-Jul-10 : 50.00% / 12.00%
27-Jul-10 : 47.78% / 14.93%
28-Jul-10 : 51.56% / 13.92%
29-Jul-10 : 55.00% / 15.00%
30-Jul-10 : 54.83% / 11.43%
31-Jul-10 : 52.00% / 12.00%
01-Aug-10 : 48.00% / 13.00%
02-Aug-10 : 52.00% / 12.00%
03-Aug-10 : 50.00% / 13.00%
04-Aug-10 : 52.00% / 9.00%
05-Aug-10 : 51.00% / 9.00%
06-Aug-10 : 54.00% / 7.00%
07-Aug-10 : 54.46% / 9.64%
08-Aug-10 : 56.10% / 12.38%
09-Aug-10 : 54.00% / 15.00%
10-Aug-10 : 49.00% / 14.00%
11-Aug-10 : 46.00% / 15.00%
12-Aug-10 : 46.00% / 10.00%
13-Aug-10 : 50.00% / 11.00%
14-Aug-10 : 51.48% / 8.64%
15-Aug-10 : 54.25% / 10.76%
16-Aug-10 : 55.00% / 10.00%
17-Aug-10 : 53.00% / 11.00%
18-Aug-10 : 55.00% / 9.00%
Notice the outlier in this category on August 16-18?
Independents:
19-Jul-10 : 18.28% / 49.45%
20-Jul-10 : 18.49% / 47.81%
22-Jul-10 : 21.00% / 42.00%
23-Jul-10 : 22.00% / 44.00%
24-Jul-10 : 19.64% / 49.78%
25-Jul-10 : 17.21% / 52.00%
26-Jul-10 : 19.00% / 52.00%
27-Jul-10 : 20.73% / 49.25%
28-Jul-10 : 20.35% / 44.80%
29-Jul-10 : 17.00% / 46.00%
30-Jul-10 : 15.54% / 46.98%
31-Jul-10 : 14.00% / 54.00%
01-Aug-10 : 16.00% / 48.00%
02-Aug-10 : 19.00% / 48.00%
03-Aug-10 : 22.00% / 42.00%
04-Aug-10 : 20.00% / 47.00%
05-Aug-10 : 21.00% / 51.00%
06-Aug-10 : 23.00% / 50.00%
07-Aug-10 : 26.61% / 45.90%
08-Aug-10 : 26.84% / 41.54%
09-Aug-10 : 21.00% / 44.00%
10-Aug-10 : 17.00% / 50.00%
11-Aug-10 : 14.00% / 51.00%
12-Aug-10 : 16.00% / 53.00%
13-Aug-10 : 15.00% / 47.00%
14-Aug-10 : 15.79% / 48.35%
15-Aug-10 : 13.50% / 47.61%
16-Aug-10 : 12.00% / 53.00%
17-Aug-10 : 15.00% / 52.00%
18-Aug-10 : 16.00% / 54.00%
Do you see the probable outlier on August 6-8?
Here are the percentages of approval for women. The first number is the 3-day average. The number in parentheses is the 30-day trend average.
July 19: 53.47% (49.93%)
July 20: 50.84% (50.10%)
July 22: 48.00% (50.11%)
July 23: 47.00% (50.13%)
July 24: 47.95% (50.16%)
July 25: 48.29% (50.20%)
July 26: 49.00% (50.38%)
July 27: 47.05% (50.35%)
July 28: 48.75% (50.33%)
July 29: 47.00% (50.16%)
July 30: 49.78% (50.25%)
July 31: 49.00% (50.28%)
Aug 01: 52.00% (50.38%)
Aug 02: 52.00% (50.31%)
Aug 03: 51.00% (50.22%)
Aug 04: 53.00% (50.29%)
Aug 05: 52.00% (50.29%)
Aug 06: 54.00% (50.44%)
Aug 07: 53.53% (50.52%)
Aug 08: 52.03% (50.58%)
Aug 09: 50.00% (50.54%)
Aug 10: 47.00% (50.37%)
Aug 11: 50.00% (50.31%)
Aug 12: 51.00% (50.33%)
Aug 13: 53.00% (50.43%)
Aug 14: 50.21% (50.47%)
Aug 15: 48.93% (50.40%)
Aug 16: 44.00% (50.23%)
Aug 17: 45.00% (49.95%)
Aug 18: 47.00% (49.73%)
I must admit that I am getting frustrated at the percentage approval being greater than 50%. That 50% line is such a psychological number and we have broken the 50% barrier for the 30-day average !!!!
These are the percentages for men. As above, the first number is the 3-day average and the number in parentheses is the 30-day trend average.
July 19: 38.60% (40.75%)
July 20: 40.90% (40.84%)
July 22: 41.00% (40.90%)
July 23: 39.00% (41.00%)
July 24: 37.27% (41.08%)
July 25: 36.67% (40.95%)
July 26: 41.00% (40.92%)
July 27: 41.00% (40.82%)
July 28: 43.87% (40.72%)
July 29: 44.00% (40.72%)
July 30: 43.37% (40.71%)
July 31: 38.00% (40.61%)
Aug 01: 36.00% (40.43%)
Aug 02: 37.00% (40.20%)
Aug 03: 41.00% (40.22%)
Aug 04: 38.00% (40.18%)
Aug 05: 39.00% (40.28%)
Aug 06: 39.00% (40.25%)
Aug 07: 41.95% (40.32%)
Aug 08: 43.96% (40.46%)
Aug 09: 43.00% (40.62%)
Aug 10: 40.00% (40.55%)
Aug 11: 35.00% (40.19%)
Aug 12: 38.00% (39.87%)
Aug 13: 40.00% (39.70%)
Aug 14: 41.40% (39.63%)
Aug 15: 41.27% (39.70%)
Aug 16: 42.00% (39.71%)
Aug 17: 44.00% (40.04%)
Aug 18: 43.00% (40.28%)
The 30-day average is increasing again, and we have reached near record low territory for the 30-day averge.
Regarding the 30-day chart for overall approval, currently the 30-day OVERALL average is still 45.24%.
We have finally broken the 46% barrier and entered the 45% range. We are approaching record low territory for the 30-day averages, overall. The low was 45.17% on March 21, 2010.
Obama Approval Ratings (Rasmussen)
Overall (3 days)
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
19-Jul-10 : 46.67% / 52.22% / -5.55%
20-Jul-10 : 46.17% / 52.94% / -6.74%
22-Jul-10 : 44.00% / 55.00% / -11.00%
23-Jul-10 : 43.00% / 56.00% / -13.00%
24-Jul-10 : 43.00% / 55.94% / -12.94%
25-Jul-10 : 42.89% / 56.28% / -13.39%
26-Jul-10 : 45.00% / 55.00% / -10.00%
27-Jul-10 : 44.19% / 55.52% / -11.33%
28-Jul-10 : 46.39% / 53.26% / -6.87%
29-Jul-10 : 46.00% / 54.00% / -8.00%
30-Jul-10 : 46.75% / 52.68% / -5.93%
31-Jul-10 : 44.00% / 56.00% / -12.00%
01-Aug-10 : 44.00% / 55.00% / -11.00%
02-Aug-10 : 45.00% / 54.00% / -9.00%
03-Aug-10 : 46.00% / 53.00% / -7.00%
04-Aug-10 : 46.00% / 53.00% / -7.00%
05-Aug-10 : 46.00% / 54.00% / -8.00%
06-Aug-10 : 47.00% / 53.00% / -6.00%
07-Aug-10 : 48.12% / 51.12% / -3.00%
08-Aug-10 : 48.30% / 50.89% / -2.59%
09-Aug-10 : 46.00% / 52.00% / -6.00%
10-Aug-10 : 44.00% / 55.00% / -11.00%
11-Aug-10 : 43.00% / 56.00% / -13.00%
12-Aug-10 : 45.00% / 54.00% / -9.00%
13-Aug-10 : 47.00% / 52.00% / -5.00%
14-Aug-10 : 46.15% / 52.52% / -6.37%
15-Aug-10 : 45.42% / 53.05% / -7.63%
16-Aug-10 : 43.00% / 56.00% / -13.00%
17-Aug-10 : 44.00% / 55.00% / -11.00%
18-Aug-10 : 45.00% / 54.00% / -9.00%
What a classic outlier on August 6 – 8.
Overall (30 days)
Time Span: Approve / Disapprove / Difference
19-Jul-10 : 45.53% / 53.60% / -8.07%
20-Jul-10 : 45.67% / 53.47% / -7.80%
22-Jul-10 : 45.71% / 53.41% / -7.80%
23-Jul-10 : 45.77% / 53.37% / -7.80%
24-Jul-10 : 45.83% / 53.32% / -7.80%
25-Jul-10 : 45.77% / 53.38% / -7.80%
26-Jul-10 : 45.83% / 53.31% / -7.48%
27-Jul-10 : 45.77% / 53.40% / -7.63%
28-Jul-10 : 45.71% / 53.48% / -7.77%
29-Jul-10 : 45.65% / 53.58% / -7.93%
30-Jul-10 : 45.69% / 53.56% / -7.87%
31-Jul-10 : 45.67% / 53.62% / -7.96%
01-Aug-10 : 45.62% / 53.66% / -8.04%
02-Aug-10 : 45.49% / 53.80% / -8.31%
03-Aug-10 : 45.43% / 53.85% / -8.42%
04-Aug-10 : 45.46% / 53.83% / -8.38%
05-Aug-10 : 45.52% / 53.80% / -8.28%
06-Aug-10 : 45.59% / 53.74% / -8.14%
07-Aug-10 : 45.70% / 53.64% / -7.94%
08-Aug-10 : 45.80% / 53.52% / -7.72%
09-Aug-10 : 45.83% / 53.45% / -7.62%
10-Aug-10 : 45.73% / 53.55% / -7.82%
11-Aug-10 : 45.53% / 53.75% / -8.22%
12-Aug-10 : 45.40% / 53.89% / -8.49%
13-Aug-10 : 45.36% / 53.89% / -8.52%
14-Aug-10 : 45.35% / 53.87% / -8.52%
15-Aug-10 : 45.36% / 53.84% / -8.48%
16-Aug-10 : 45.27% / 53.92% / -8.65%
17-Aug-10 : 45.26% / 53.93% / -8.68%
18-Aug-10 : 45.24% / 53.95% / -8.71%
Record low territory.
Independent (3 days)
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
19-Jul-10 : 38.74% / 59.22% / -20.48%
20-Jul-10 : 37.87% / 61.62% / -23.75%
22-Jul-10 : 41.00% / 58.00% / -17.00%
23-Jul-10 : 39.00% / 59.00% / -20.00%
24-Jul-10 : 35.05% / 63.59% / -28.54%
25-Jul-10 : 33.12% / 65.78% / -32.66%
26-Jul-10 : 37.00% / 62.00% / -25.00%
27-Jul-10 : 36.99% / 62.47% / -25.48%
28-Jul-10 : 39.95% / 59.35% / -19.40%
29-Jul-10 : 37.00% / 62.00% / -25.00%
30-Jul-10 : 39.00% / 59.95% / -20.95%
31-Jul-10 : 34.00% / 66.00% / -32.00%
01-Aug-10 : 39.00% / 61.00% / -22.00%
02-Aug-10 : 40.00% / 60.00% / -20.00%
03-Aug-10 : 44.00% / 55.00% / -11.00%
04-Aug-10 : 39.00% / 59.00% / -20.00%
05-Aug-10 : 39.00% / 60.00% / -21.00%
06-Aug-10 : 40.00% / 59.00% / -19.00%
07-Aug-10 : 44.11% / 54.10% / -9.99%
08-Aug-10 : 43.49% / 54.52% / -11.03%
09-Aug-10 : 38.00% / 58.00% / -20.00%
10-Aug-10 : 33.00% / 64.00% / -31.00%
11-Aug-10 : 33.00% / 65.00% / -32.00%
12-Aug-10 : 35.00% / 64.00% / -29.00%
13-Aug-10 : 40.00% / 59.00% / -19.00%
14-Aug-10 : 38.42% / 60.70% / -22.28%
15-Aug-10 : 36.61% / 62.42% / -25.81%
16-Aug-10 : 31.00% / 68.00% / -37.00%
17-Aug-10 : 36.00% / 64.00% / -28.00%
18-Aug-10 : 37.00% / 63.00% / -26.00%
We have two possible outliers among the data. The first is August 6-8 and the other on August 10-12
Independent (30 days)
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
19-Jul-10 : 36.82% / 62.25% / -25.43%
20-Jul-10 : 37.15% / 61.93% / -24.79%
22-Jul-10 : 37.45% / 61.67% / -24.22%
23-Jul-10 : 37.76% / 61.37% / -23.61%
24-Jul-10 : 37.93% / 61.08% / -23.15%
25-Jul-10 : 37.97% / 61.14% / -23.17%
26-Jul-10 : 37.88% / 61.12% / -23.24%
27-Jul-10 : 37.81% / 61.20% / -23.39%
28-Jul-10 : 37.60% / 61.43% / -23.83%
29-Jul-10 : 37.40% / 61.66% / -24.27%
30-Jul-10 : 37.42% / 61.67% / -24.25%
31-Jul-10 : 37.39% / 61.76% / -24.37%
01-Aug-10 : 37.46% / 61.73% / -24.27%
02-Aug-10 : 37.33% / 61.90% / -24.57%
03-Aug-10 : 37.43% / 61.76% / -24.33%
04-Aug-10 : 37.61% / 61.52% / -23.92%
05-Aug-10 : 37.87% / 61.22% / -23.35%
06-Aug-10 : 38.15% / 60.91% / -22.75%
07-Aug-10 : 38.49% / 60.51% / -22.02%
08-Aug-10 : 38.76% / 60.19% / -21.43%
09-Aug-10 : 38.81% / 60.02% / -21.21%
10-Aug-10 : 38.64% / 60.12% / -21.48%
11-Aug-10 : 38.41% / 60.32% / -21.91%
12-Aug-10 : 38.08% / 60.66% / -22.58%
13-Aug-10 : 38.08% / 60.62% / -22.55%
14-Aug-10 : 38.03% / 60.65% / -22.62%
15-Aug-10 : 38.11% / 60.56% / -22.45%
16-Aug-10 : 37.90% / 60.78% / -22.88%
17-Aug-10 : 37.95% / 60.81% / -22.86%
18-Aug-10 : 37.85% / 60.99% / -23.15%
This increased so drastically due to the fact that 28% fell off the table. We are decreasing again. The previous record low for the 30-day averages for independents had been 36.57% on July 17, 2010.
August 11th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Brandon,
Any public option will ultimately become a single payer system. People are not stupid.
August 12th, 2009 at 7:34 am
Friends,
Any guesses as to Rasmussen’s approval for Obama on the Economy and Obama on the National Security?
Frank
August 12th, 2009 at 8:10 am
Frank,
Any guesses why the strongly approve/disapprove gap narrowed, but the overall approve/disapprove gap widened?
August 12th, 2009 at 9:39 am
Sean,
The following were the strong disapproval numbers over the last few days:
Date/Rep/Dem/Ind….overall
Aug 12/58.60/12.62/43.39…..36.34
Aug 11/63.95/14.29/36.61…..36.84
Aug 10/70.39/12.05/40.30…..39.00
Aug 09/68.95/9.44/43.19…..39.01
It looks like it’s a combination of republicans and independents. Democrats are static. High strongly disapproval numbers among republicans creates a high overall strong disapproval.
I hope that this helps.
Frank
August 12th, 2009 at 9:40 am
The next few days falling off the 30-day chart are in the 52% range, so the 30-day chart should continue to go down, assuming that the current 3-day average stays below 50%.
Frank
August 13th, 2009 at 8:20 am
As I’ve said before, I’m no good with numbers, but even I can see that the President is trending down in a significant fashion. It’s been interesting to watch as more and more people begin to see that the emperor isn’t wearing any clothes.
August 13th, 2009 at 8:27 am
Micky, if Obama’s the sucker, what the hell do we call the American electorate?
Frank, great work as usual. It is quite heartening to see Obama fail miserably as president so that his harmful policies can be defeated. Polls, like pictures, speak 1000 words. Thanks for making my morning.
August 14th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
well The iOne is now eating into his own support (those who were stooopid enough to vote for him) in significant fashion. if the thrill isn’t quite gone, it’s at least diminished.
August 14th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
Hey Frank! Here is what you need: a Razzmuzzen Rightwing spin adjustment factor. Set it to, oh, eight or nine percent. Apply it across the boards. Then you ought to have it about right. Well…maybe.
August 14th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Klo,
Really cute statement.
Please remember that Nate Silver says that Rasmussen is the best polling company. They are the most accurate.
You were obviously implying to add 8 or 9 points to get the “about right” approval number.
Hey, I believe the most accurate polling firm over other firms any day.
Notice that all I do is look at the data and discuss what I see. When I was posting numbers at Hedgehogreport in May, my comments were discussing the improving approval numbers for President Obama. I was trying to explain why his numbers were going up. The 30-day trend maxed out at 56.92% on June 2nd. The reasons for the improvement back then were quite clear. I won’t get into the specifics. It would fall on deaf ears … if my impression of your “openness” to ideas is accurate.
Frank
August 15th, 2009 at 10:58 am
If Razzmuzzen is so good and the most accurate, Let’s-All-Be-Frank, then why is he so much different from the others?
I think ol’ Razzmuzzen is gettin’ some dollars from someone, somewhere. That’s what I think. Gettin’ his pockets lined, like my ol’ Granddad like to say.
There’s money in that there spin!
August 15th, 2009 at 11:13 am
After analyzing the statistical data gathered from the postings above I’ve come to the conclusion that Klo-less has a 99% Strong disapproval rating while the other 1% finds her to be slightly annoying and moronic.
August 15th, 2009 at 11:15 am
YOu know what is really sad? The republicans wnated to put the health care reform bill off to the fall as they said it was being rushed and why did we have to do it so fast. So they got their wish, but used the time to launch a well funded but cloaked campaign to enlist a bunch of angry folks to go harangue and yell over the town hall meetings to create an illusion of a genuine grass roots movements. Its duplicitous on several levels all at once. Or in fact they are playing dirty as it gets. This is like junior high school politics.
August 15th, 2009 at 11:17 am
klo has good common sense and a sense of wit. I cannot even argue with anything I have read. Klo is insightful and honest with the data and will be up front with disagreements. So Klo keeps you all a little more honest.
August 15th, 2009 at 11:20 am
So could we say that Klo-less is half insightful and honest and half wit?
August 15th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Klo,
If you have been reading my posts religiously, then you would know that I have posted the differences between polling adults vs likely voters.
When polling adults, the results are generally skewed in the democrats favor by somewhere around 3%. Scott Rasmussen has written an article on this. If you go to his website, then you will have the opportunity the see exactly what he says.
There is also a big difference in results when you weigh your results vs. not weighing your results. Weighing results is a subtle science. Most polling firms use different models for the percents used when they weigh their results. This can cause differences in the results.
The other thing that causes differences in results is whether you weigh the results or not. Gallup does not weigh his results. Again, Scott Rasmussen has written an article explaining the differences.
Please try to read up these differences and learn something more about polling.
Just remember how exact they have been in 2004, 2006 and 2008. They are almost exactly accurate. These results are also posted on their site.
Please don’t speak democratic talking points. Just look at the data and see the results. That’s all that I do. If the results were increasing, I would explain why as well.
Please be civil. I hope that I am.
Frank
August 15th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Brian,
The republicans wanted the debate to be in September so that the one bill that has been voted out of committee could be read, inspected and digested. After doing this, then the debate begins.
A majority of americans are extremely angry and disappointed with what’s going on in DC. ALL polling firms show this anger. If you look at the participants at these townhall meetings, you will not see an organized group of people. You will see people who want their voices heard.
…. and they are extremely tired of not being listened to.
Frank
August 15th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Klo,
The groups that are getting their pockets lined are the unions (and I’m a member of one) and the organizations that are making backroom deals with the Obama Administration.
If an organization has agreed to do something (like reduce costs and/or payments) then they didn’t do it out of the goodness of their hearts. They were coerced, threatened or some combination of those two, to make that deal.
Probably a threat to their shins, legs or families. Remember, many people who have voice opposition to the President’s policies are getting audited by the IRS, or threatened with regulations.
‘Tis called “hard-core politics”. Do what I want, or I will make you pay.
Frank
August 15th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
frank its well documented that many of these angry town halls were “peopled” with a select demographic got out by lobbying money, Public Relations firms for the insurance industry, right wing causes, right wing pacs, etc. One person interviewe was an local ex party official who denied any prior such position, and various people posing. Its very professionally done actually, by “operatives” and that stirs the pot and then you get other more extreme vocal’s who join up with them. what I don’t understand is why the right would so put itself out to shill for the health insurance industry? More options and competition and spreading the coverage nationwide, covering prexisting conditions, job portability, and prescriptions sounds like a necessary step for us to solve the “problems” that we have now. I have seen my own work policies rise endlessly in price and copays and they cover less and less and meddle more and more.
August 15th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Brian,
I respectfully disagree about the “peopled” comment and description. Now, if you want to talk about stacked audiences, look at the President’s townhalls.
These people do want pre-existing conditions, job portability and prescriptions to be adjusted. However, that does not mean that you have to totally revamp the whole blasted thing.
A small bill dealing directly with these specifics and you have a deal. Throw in tort reform, which is the biggest problem that causes doctor costs to rise, and the deal is sealed.
If President Obama really wanted to work on a bipartisan basis, then he should have gotten both parties (D & R) together and started negotiating. What do you think needs to be fixed. Let’s agree on how to do this. A little give and take would be good. The problem, there is no give and take. Over 1000 pages, many of which can be analyzed and interpreted in very negative ways (death panels, for example) and take it or leave it.
If you run on a platform of working together, then work together. Don’t ram things through Congress.
Respectfully submitted.
Frank
August 15th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
I would like tort reform too. And get students out of medical and nursing school with substantially less debt. So probably the one real weak point in the obama plan is no tort reform. Now that is a real issue. Get tort reform and extra testing for every little thing will go down. I don’t read them as death panels, but I would eliminat taxpayers paying for abortions and simply offer payment for patient visits to their docters, let them decide the purpose of the visit, as a general consultation. And yes those town halls were peopled, and it magnetically drew in some others who simply refject the obama presidency no matter what it trys to do. of course there is a lot of democrat pent up demand to enact a whole slew of things. I think the repubs stalled out the clinton presidency early, and then bush didn’t really do anything other than get us into two permanent wars.
August 15th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Brian,
President Bush passed several significant improvements in, at least three instances.
1. NCLB … education reform
2. Medicare Drug Plan
3. Homeland Security
They were all done in his first term. Second terms are hard to get major legislation passed. He tried to get Social Security reform but was stymied by the Democrats in Congress.
He was very bipartisan in all three major accomplishments. He was not bipartisan for social security reform and thus, it was not done.
Gotta go.
Frank
August 15th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
education reform was a bust, medicare presciption meds weren’t paid for but the pharmaceuticals made a lot of moohah, and then there is the infamous donut hole,homeland security was a good p.r. move and some streamlining and communications came into the picture slowly, but its unclear to me if that beuracrazy makes much sense.
August 15th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Brian,
Education reform was far from a bust. I am involved in education and it was extremely useful.
Frank
August 15th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
everyone always defends what they are involved in, and there are always anecdotal local successess to triumph. But on an aggregate level, the core problem lies in the destruction of the American family and their accretive communities. Just think how many single parent homes are paying the price so a few top dawg corporate executives and investors makes millions upon millions of dollars. Two traders of citibank, that has been doubling or more interest rates on its collection of credit cards it bought out from other previously more consumer friendly companies, are reported to be paid in the 50-98 million dollar range for this year, and are telling the Feds who bailed them out its none of their business. I am not saying to lay all the blame on teachers and beuracracies and overpacked classrooms and lack of funding, but without the core of an american 2 parent family these kids have only half a chance. The destruction of the middle class and the repeopling of America with new immigrant classes of general labor who are taking previous middle class jobs is destablizing to the people who make these execs rich. The execs response is to simply use lobbies to get more laws passed and more prisons built. You cannot educate kids in isolation of the overlying political economy that allocates resources, including both thier parents to simply making those at the top more money.