Top line numbers: 47.01% / 52.69%
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Read below to see the details.
The President’s approval index is now at -12.60%!!!!!!
Please look through the data tables below and let us know your thoughts as to the trends that you see.
Here are the trends:
Independents (3 days)
Time Span : Strongly / Strongly / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
11-Jan-10 : 12.99% / 48.82% / -35.83%
12-Jan-10 : 12.98% / 45.74% / -32.76%
13-Jan-10 : 13.53% / 44.29% / -30.76%
14-Jan-10 : 16.20% / 42.26% / -26.06%
15-Jan-10 : 17.69% / 42.81% / -25.12%
16-Jan-10 : 19.28% / 43.11% / -23.83%
17-Jan-10 : 16.72% / 41.93% / -25.21%
18-Jan-10 : 19.74% / 44.55% / -24.81%
19-Jan-10 : 21.17% / 43.48% / -22.31%
20-Jan-10 : 25.29% / 44.03% / -18.74%
21-Jan-10 : 22.28% / 45.96% / -23.68%
22-Jan-10 : 19.84% / 45.68% / -25.84%
23-Jan-10 : 16.53% / 50.98% / -34.45%
24-Jan-10 : 24.17% / 43.06% / -18.89%
25-Jan-10 : 21.53% / 44.73% / -23.20%
26-Jan-10 : 24.59% / 40.57% / -15.98%
27-Jan-10 : 18.79% / 41.90% / -23.11%
28-Jan-10 : 17.12% / 41.25% / -24.13%
29-Jan-10 : 14.02% / 45.18% / -31.16%
30-Jan-10 : 17.25% / 46.63% / -29.38%
31-Jan-10 : 22.14% / 49.82% / -27.68%
01-Feb-10 : 29.71% / 45.80% / -16.09%
02-Feb-10 : 29.98% / 42.63% / -12.65%
03-Feb-10 : 28.75% / 38.06% / -9.31%
04-Feb-10 : 21.21% / 40.50% / -19.29%
05-Feb-10 : 14.10% / 49.31% / -35.21%
06-Feb-10 : 10.84% / 50.40% / -39.56%
07-Feb-10 : 12.01% / 54.90% / -42.89%
08-Feb-10 : 19.54% / 46.39% / -26.85%
09-Feb-10 : 20.11% / 44.08% / -23.97%
The outlier has gone away.
I still believe that the threshold for strongly approve is in the 15% to 19% range.
The current threshold for strongly disapprove has been increased to the 42% to 46% range..
These are the strongly approve/stongly disapprove numbers for the last 30 days.
Overall (3 days)
Time Span : Strongly / Strongly / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
11-Jan-10 : 25.52% / 40.71% / -15.19%
12-Jan-10 : 25.54% / 39.55% / -14.01%
13-Jan-10 : 23.96% / 39.04% / -15.08%
14-Jan-10 : 24.54% / 39.59% / -15.05%
15-Jan-10 : 26.03% / 39.65% / -13.62%
16-Jan-10 : 26.80% / 39.59% / -12.79%
17-Jan-10 : 26.68% / 38.53% / -11.85%
18-Jan-10 : 27.09% / 39.08% / -11.99%
19-Jan-10 : 27.95% / 38.76% / -10.81%
20-Jan-10 : 28.44% / 40.16% / -11.72%
21-Jan-10 : 27.08% / 41.61% / -14.53%
22-Jan-10 : 25.40% / 42.92% / -17.52%
23-Jan-10 : 23.83% / 43.10% / -19.27%
24-Jan-10 : 24.26% / 40.96% / -16.70%
25-Jan-10 : 24.89% / 40.55% / -15.66%
26-Jan-10 : 26.36% / 40.47% / -14.11%
27-Jan-10 : 26.61% / 41.73% / -15.12%
28-Jan-10 : 25.07% / 42.29% / -17.22%
29-Jan-10 : 25.05% / 42.27% / -17.22%
30-Jan-10 : 28.28% / 40.14% / -11.86%
31-Jan-10 : 32.81% / 39.89% / -7.08%
01-Feb-10 : 34.58% / 38.90% / -4.32%
02-Feb-10 : 31.97% / 38.59% / -6.62%
03-Feb-10 : 30.86% / 36.83% / -5.97%
04-Feb-10 : 29.08% / 37.02% / -7.94%
05-Feb-10 : 28.35% / 39.95% / -11.60%
06-Feb-10 : 26.21% / 41.26% / -15.05%
07-Feb-10 : 25.85% / 42.93% / -17.08%
08-Feb-10 : 26.01% / 40.80% / -14.79%
09-Feb-10 : 26.96% / 39.56% / -12.60%
Settling into the 26% range.
Time for a change here as well. The new estimate for the strongly approve number is 26% - 29% range. Let’s monitor here too.
My current estimate for the strongly disapprove number is the 38% - 42% range.
Let’s compare these strongly approve/strongly disapprove numbers with the 30-day trend.
Overall (30 days)
Time Span : Strongly / Strongly / Difference
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
11-Jan-10 : 26.41% / 41.01% / -14.61%
12-Jan-10 : 26.37% / 41.08% / -14.72%
13-Jan-10 : 26.25% / 41.10% / -14.85%
14-Jan-10 : 26.10% / 41.12% / -15.02%
15-Jan-10 : 26.04% / 41.12% / -15.08%
16-Jan-10 : 26.03% / 41.13% / -15.10%
17-Jan-10 : 26.10% / 41.06% / -14.96%
18-Jan-10 : 26.22% / 40.96% / -14.73%
19-Jan-10 : 26.37% / 40.85% / -14.49%
20-Jan-10 : 26.44% / 40.84% / -14.40%
21-Jan-10 : 26.41% / 40.88% / -14.47%
22-Jan-10 : 26.33% / 40.94% / -14.61%
23-Jan-10 : 26.21% / 40.98% / -14.77%
24-Jan-10 : 26.13% / 41.01% / -14.87%
25-Jan-10 : 26.10% / 40.98% / -14.89%
26-Jan-10 : 26.12% / 40.91% / -14.79%
27-Jan-10 : 26.17% / 40.78% / -14.61%
28-Jan-10 : 26.13% / 40.73% / -14.60%
29-Jan-10 : 26.06% / 40.70% / -14.64%
30-Jan-10 : 26.06% / 40.69% / -14.63%
31-Jan-10 : 26.28% / 40.64% / -14.35%
01-Feb-10 : 26.60% / 40.58% / -13.98%
02-Feb-10 : 26.87% / 40.48% / -13.61%
03-Feb-10 : 27.03% / 40.34% / -13.31%
04-Feb-10 : 27.09% / 40.23% / -13.14%
05-Feb-10 : 27.08% / 40.26% / -13.18%
06-Feb-10 : 27.04% / 40.33% / -13.29%
07-Feb-10 : 26.99% / 40.40% / -13.41%
08-Feb-10 : 27.01% / 40.33% / -13.32%
09-Feb-10 : 27.07% / 40.21% / -13.15%
Strongly approve was improving, no question. Will it turn around? That is the question to ask. It appears as if it stabilizing.
Here are the spreads for the subgroups for strongly approve and strongly disapprove.
Overall:
11-Jan-10 : 25.52% / 40.71%
12-Jan-10 : 25.54% / 39.55%
13-Jan-10 : 23.96% / 39.04%
14-Jan-10 : 24.54% / 39.59%
15-Jan-10 : 26.03% / 39.65%
16-Jan-10 : 26.80% / 39.59%
17-Jan-10 : 26.68% / 38.53%
18-Jan-10 : 27.09% / 39.08%
19-Jan-10 : 27.95% / 38.76%
20-Jan-10 : 28.44% / 40.16%
21-Jan-10 : 27.08% / 41.61%
22-Jan-10 : 25.40% / 42.92%
23-Jan-10 : 23.83% / 43.10%
24-Jan-10 : 24.26% / 40.96%
25-Jan-10 : 24.89% / 40.55%
26-Jan-10 : 26.36% / 40.47%
27-Jan-10 : 26.61% / 41.73%
28-Jan-10 : 25.07% / 42.29%
29-Jan-10 : 25.05% / 42.27%
30-Jan-10 : 28.28% / 40.14%
31-Jan-10 : 32.81% / 39.89%
01-Feb-10 : 34.58% / 38.90%
02-Feb-10 : 31.97% / 38.59%
03-Feb-10 : 30.86% / 36.83%
04-Feb-10 : 29.08% / 37.02%
05-Feb-10 : 28.35% / 39.95%
06-Feb-10 : 26.21% / 41.26%
07-Feb-10 : 25.85% / 42.93%
08-Feb-10 : 26.01% / 40.80%
09-Feb-10 : 26.96% / 39.56%
Receding to the norm.
Republicans:
11-Jan-10 : 10.94% / 63.28%
12-Jan-10 : 9.26% / 63.31%
13-Jan-10 : 8.90% / 64.11%
14-Jan-10 : 7.12% / 67.06%
15-Jan-10 : 8.04% / 66.28%
16-Jan-10 : 6.94% / 66.14%
17-Jan-10 : 4.54% / 65.12%
18-Jan-10 : 5.35% / 65.09%
19-Jan-10 : 4.70% / 66.07%
20-Jan-10 : 4.31% / 71.26%
21-Jan-10 : 2.19% / 70.77%
22-Jan-10 : 2.68% / 73.98%
23-Jan-10 : 3.93% / 69.60%
24-Jan-10 : 3.70% / 70.92%
25-Jan-10 : 5.41% / 70.05%
26-Jan-10 : 6.97% / 71.75%
27-Jan-10 : 8.27% / 75.33%
28-Jan-10 : 6.25% / 75.10%
29-Jan-10 : 5.06% / 73.80%
30-Jan-10 : 6.37% / 67.71%
31-Jan-10 : 8.01% / 65.55%
01-Feb-10 : 10.03% / 63.93%
02-Feb-10 : 9.83% / 67.69%
03-Feb-10 : 11.58% / 61.09%
04-Feb-10 : 12.43% / 62.30%
05-Feb-10 : 10.19% / 64.38%
06-Feb-10 : 8.70% / 66.82%
07-Feb-10 : 6.41% / 67.26%
08-Feb-10 : 6.47% / 68.97%
09-Feb-10 : 6.40% / 65.42%
Back to normal.
Democrats:
11-Jan-10 : 50.12% / 12.79%
12-Jan-10 : 52.10% / 11.30%
13-Jan-10 : 47.46% / 10.93%
14-Jan-10 : 47.79% / 11.61%
15-Jan-10 : 50.31% / 12.13%
16-Jan-10 : 51.48% / 12.16%
17-Jan-10 : 55.24% / 11.62%
18-Jan-10 : 52.76% / 11.27%
19-Jan-10 : 54.91% / 9.96%
20-Jan-10 : 54.22% / 8.13%
21-Jan-10 : 54.48% / 10.68%
22-Jan-10 : 51.10% / 12.13%
23-Jan-10 : 48.15% / 12.35%
24-Jan-10 : 42.85% / 12.12%
25-Jan-10 : 45.64% / 9.64%
26-Jan-10 : 45.94% / 11.40%
27-Jan-10 : 50.14% / 11.31%
28-Jan-10 : 48.92% / 13.96%
29-Jan-10 : 52.42% / 11.93%
30-Jan-10 : 57.29% / 10.10%
31-Jan-10 : 63.78% / 8.81%
01-Feb-10 : 60.42% / 10.85%
02-Feb-10 : 53.86% / 13.11%
03-Feb-10 : 50.14% / 13.80%
04-Feb-10 : 50.95% / 11.18%
05-Feb-10 : 56.59% / 10.10%
06-Feb-10 : 55.73% / 9.92%
07-Feb-10 : 55.47% / 10.49%
08-Feb-10 : 49.15% / 10.66%
09-Feb-10 : 52.36% / 10.99%
Notice the classic “bounce” from the SOTU. The “bounce” has gone away. It does appear, however, that the “normal” range is now mid to low 50% range.
Independents:
11-Jan-10 : 12.99% / 48.82%
12-Jan-10 : 12.98% / 45.74%
13-Jan-10 : 13.53% / 44.29%
14-Jan-10 : 16.20% / 42.26%
15-Jan-10 : 17.69% / 42.81%
16-Jan-10 : 19.28% / 43.11%
17-Jan-10 : 16.72% / 41.93%
18-Jan-10 : 19.74% / 44.55%
19-Jan-10 : 21.17% / 43.48%
20-Jan-10 : 25.29% / 44.03%
21-Jan-10 : 22.28% / 45.96%
22-Jan-10 : 19.84% / 45.68%
23-Jan-10 : 16.53% / 50.98%
24-Jan-10 : 24.17% / 43.06%
25-Jan-10 : 21.53% / 44.73%
26-Jan-10 : 24.59% / 40.57%
27-Jan-10 : 18.79% / 41.90%
28-Jan-10 : 17.12% / 41.25%
29-Jan-10 : 14.02% / 45.18%
30-Jan-10 : 17.25% / 46.63%
31-Jan-10 : 22.14% / 49.82%
01-Feb-10 : 29.71% / 45.80%
02-Feb-10 : 29.98% / 42.63%
03-Feb-10 : 28.75% / 38.06%
04-Feb-10 : 21.21% / 40.50%
05-Feb-10 : 14.10% / 49.31%
06-Feb-10 : 10.84% / 50.40%
07-Feb-10 : 12.01% / 54.90%
08-Feb-10 : 19.54% / 46.39%
09-Feb-10 : 20.11% / 44.08%
Outlier is gone and we are back to normal.
Here are the percentages of approval for women. The first number is the 3-day average. The number in parentheses is the 30-day trend average.
January 11: 51.87% (50.38%)
January 12: 50.76% (50.29%)
January 13: 49.69% (50.23%)
January 14: 48.28% (50.15%)
January 15: 49.30% (50.20%)
January 16: 50.64% (50.28%)
January 17: 49.50% (50.36%)
January 18: 47.74% (50.37%)
January 19: 48.15% (50.48%)
January 20: 49.42% (50.50%)
January 21: 47.50% (50.52%)
January 22: 43.84% (50.35%)
January 23: 44.44% (50.23%)
January 24: 46.55% (50.05%)
January 25: 51.35% (50.07%)
January 26: 50.83% (50.03%)
January 27: 50.11% (50.07%)
January 28: 49.57% (49.97%)
January 29: 53.39% (50.09%)
January 30: 53.53% (50.08%)
January 31: 54.04% (50.16%)
February 1: 49.09% (50.09%)
February 2: 52.19% (50.20%)
February 3: 50.84% (50.17%)
February 4: 53.22% (50.15%)
February 5: 49.68% (50.00%)
February 6: 48.84% (49.91%)
February 7: 45.66% (49.72%)
February 8: 47.39% (49.59%)
February 9: 47.69% (49.50%)
Still in a low range for women. Notice the 30-day trend.
These are the percentages for men. As above, the first number is the 3-day average and the number in parentheses is the 30-day trend average.
January 11: 39.93% (41.32%)
January 12: 40.08% (41.20%)
January 13: 41.12% (41.17%)
January 14: 42.99% (41.14%)
January 15: 44.67% (41.18%)
January 16: 46.69% (41.20%)
January 17: 46.01% (41.25%)
January 18: 46.06% (41.33%)
January 19: 47.06% (41.46%)
January 20: 46.79% (41.60%)
January 21: 46.15% (41.69%)
January 22: 46.01% (41.81%)
January 23: 43.90% (41.95%)
January 24: 44.91% (42.18%)
January 25: 41.86% (42.26%)
January 26: 42.14% (42.37%)
January 27: 42.66% (42.55%)
January 28: 41.97% (42.80%)
January 29: 40.34% (42.89%)
January 30: 42.99% (43.03%)
January 31: 44.70% (43.17%)
February 1: 49.79% (43.42%)
February 2: 47.88% (43.61%)
February 3: 48.54% (43.83%)
February 4: 45.05% (43.92%)
February 5: 42.43% (43.89%)
February 6: 39.54% (43.74%)
February 7: 41.11% (43.77%)
February 8: 43.82% (43.87%)
February 9: 46.31% (44.12%)
A potential outlier among men.
Regarding the 30-day chart for overall approval, currently the 30-day OVERALL average is 46.94%.
Obama Approval Ratings (Rasmussen)
Overall (3 days)
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
11-Jan-10 : 46.27% / 51.96% / -5.69%
12-Jan-10 : 45.74% / 52.57% / -6.83%
13-Jan-10 : 45.65% / 52.90% / -7.25%
14-Jan-10 : 45.75% / 53.31% / -7.56%
15-Jan-10 : 47.11% / 52.17% / -5.06%
16-Jan-10 : 48.80% / 50.67% / -1.87%
17-Jan-10 : 47.90% / 50.94% / -3.04%
18-Jan-10 : 46.96% / 51.88% / -4.92%
19-Jan-10 : 47.63% / 51.50% / -3.87%
20-Jan-10 : 48.18% / 51.43% / -3.25%
21-Jan-10 : 46.85% / 52.46% / -5.61%
22-Jan-10 : 44.88% / 54.10% / -9.22%
23-Jan-10 : 44.18% / 54.88% / -10.70%
24-Jan-10 : 45.76% / 53.62% / -7.86%
25-Jan-10 : 46.77% / 52.81% / -6.04%
26-Jan-10 : 46.58% / 53.04% / -6.46%
27-Jan-10 : 46.40% / 53.26% / -6.86%
28-Jan-10 : 45.95% / 53.82% / -7.87%
29-Jan-10 : 47.20% / 52.28% / -5.08%
30-Jan-10 : 48.63% / 50.87% / -2.24%
31-Jan-10 : 49.50% / 50.06% / -0.56%
01-Feb-10 : 49.44% / 50.33% / -0.89%
02-Feb-10 : 50.08% / 49.36% / 0.72%
03-Feb-10 : 49.75% / 49.42% / 0.33%
04-Feb-10 : 49.34% / 49.62% / -0.28%
05-Feb-10 : 46.23% / 52.92% / -6.69%
06-Feb-10 : 44.48% / 54.64% / -10.16%
07-Feb-10 : 43.58% / 55.82% / -12.24%
08-Feb-10 : 45.67% / 53.74% / -8.07%
09-Feb-10 : 47.01% / 52.69% / -5.68%
I do wish that we would have some consistency, one way or the other.
Overall (30 days)
Time Span: Approve / Disapprove / Difference
11-Jan-10 : 46.17% / 52.97% / -6.81%
12-Jan-10 : 46.06% / 53.07% / -7.00%
13-Jan-10 : 46.02% / 53.10% / -7.08%
14-Jan-10 : 45.96% / 53.14% / -7.18%
15-Jan-10 : 46.00% / 53.12% / -7.12%
16-Jan-10 : 46.05% / 53.09% / -7.04%
17-Jan-10 : 46.13% / 53.03% / -6.90%
18-Jan-10 : 46.17% / 52.98% / -6.81%
19-Jan-10 : 46.29% / 52.87% / -6.58%
20-Jan-10 : 46.36% / 52.82% / -6.45%
21-Jan-10 : 46.41% / 52.77% / -6.36%
22-Jan-10 : 46.38% / 52.78% / -6.40%
23-Jan-10 : 46.38% / 52.77% / -6.39%
24-Jan-10 : 46.39% / 52.78% / -6.39%
25-Jan-10 : 46.43% / 52.76% / -6.33%
26-Jan-10 : 46.47% / 52.76% / -6.29%
27-Jan-10 : 46.57% / 52.67% / -6.10%
28-Jan-10 : 46.61% / 52.63% / -6.02%
30-Jan-10 : 46.77% / 52.47% / -5.70%
31-Jan-10 : 46.87% / 52.37% / -5.51%
01-Feb-10 : 46.95% / 52.32% / -5.37%
02-Feb-10 : 47.09% / 52.19% / -5.11%
03-Feb-10 : 47.17% / 52.11% / -4.94%
04-Feb-10 : 47.20% / 52.07% / -4.88%
05-Feb-10 : 47.10% / 52.15% / -5.05%
06-Feb-10 : 46.98% / 52.24% / -5.26%
07-Feb-10 : 46.90% / 52.32% / -5.42%
08-Feb-10 : 46.88% / 52.34% / -5.46%
09-Feb-10 : 46.94% / 52.30% / -5.36%
An unmistakable improvement recently but it’s decreasing again.
Independent (3 days)
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
11-Jan-10 : 36.39% / 63.40% / -27.01%
12-Jan-10 : 34.87% / 64.17% / -29.30%
13-Jan-10 : 35.91% / 62.93% / -27.02%
14-Jan-10 : 40.21% / 58.73% / -18.52%
15-Jan-10 : 44.63% / 54.96% / -10.33%
16-Jan-10 : 44.62% / 54.39% / -9.77%
17-Jan-10 : 39.62% / 58.55% / -18.93%
18-Jan-10 : 35.32% / 63.19% / -27.87%
19-Jan-10 : 36.62% / 62.61% / -25.99%
20-Jan-10 : 39.20% / 60.36% / -21.16%
21-Jan-10 : 39.14% / 60.31% / -21.17%
22-Jan-10 : 39.45% / 60.09% / -20.64%
23-Jan-10 : 37.61% / 62.04% / -24.43%
24-Jan-10 : 44.15% / 55.65% / -11.50%
25-Jan-10 : 41.15% / 58.39% / -17.24%
26-Jan-10 : 41.94% / 57.53% / -15.59%
27-Jan-10 : 40.45% / 58.99% / -18.54%
28-Jan-10 : 41.18% / 58.31% / -17.13%
29-Jan-10 : 40.18% / 59.27% / -19.09%
30-Jan-10 : 38.39% / 61.01% / -22.62%
31-Jan-10 : 37.63% / 62.08% / -24.45%
01-Feb-10 : 41.71% / 58.09% / -16.38%
02-Feb-10 : 45.25% / 54.40% / -9.15%
03-Feb-10 : 45.79% / 53.87% / -8.08%
04-Feb-10 : 41.29% / 58.37% / -17.08%
05-Feb-10 : 33.98% / 65.43% / -31.45%
06-Feb-10 : 30.51% / 68.56% / -38.05%
07-Feb-10 : 29.45% / 69.71% / -40.26%
08-Feb-10 : 34.44% / 64.85% / -30.41%
09-Feb-10 : 37.60% / 62.21% / -24.61%
Outlier has finally disappeared.
For now, I will say that approval is in the high 30% range to low 40% range.
Independent (30 days)
Time Span : Approve / Disapprove / Difference
11-Jan-10 : 37.68% / 61.55% / -23.87%
12-Jan-10 : 37.39% / 61.86% / -24.47%
13-Jan-10 : 37.08% / 62.16% / -25.08%
14-Jan-10 : 37.02% / 62.20% / -25.18%
15-Jan-10 : 37.18% / 62.03% / -24.85%
16-Jan-10 : 37.27% / 61.91% / -24.63%
17-Jan-10 : 37.26% / 61.88% / -24.63%
18-Jan-10 : 37.06% / 62.05% / -25.00%
19-Jan-10 : 37.08% / 62.03% / -24.95%
20-Jan-10 : 37.10% / 62.00% / -24.90%
21-Jan-10 : 37.15% / 61.94% / -24.79%
22-Jan-10 : 37.19% / 61.89% / -24.70%
23-Jan-10 : 37.30% / 61.79% / -24.49%
24-Jan-10 : 37.75% / 61.42% / -23.67%
25-Jan-10 : 37.91% / 61.33% / -23.42%
26-Jan-10 : 38.17% / 61.18% / -23.01%
27-Jan-10 : 38.29% / 61.08% / -22.79%
28-Jan-10 : 38.58% / 60.82% / -22.24%
29-Jan-10 : 38.73% / 60.66% / -21.93%
30-Jan-10 : 38.78% / 60.61% / -21.83%
31-Jan-10 : 38.85% / 60.53% / -21.68%
01-Feb-10 : 39.07% / 60.35% / -21.28%
02-Feb-10 : 39.40% / 60.05% / -20.64%
03-Feb-10 : 39.70% / 59.77% / -20.07%
04-Feb-10 : 39.80% / 59.67% / -19.87%
05-Feb-10 : 39.58% / 59.88% / -20.29%
06-Feb-10 : 39.34% / 60.08% / -20.74%
07-Feb-10 : 39.11% / 60.29% / -21.18%
08-Feb-10 : 39.01% / 60.36% / -21.35%
09-Feb-10 : 38.96% / 60.42% / -21.46%
It is unmistakable. Approval is increasing and disapproval is decreasing, however something is different. Is this the beginning of a new trend? Only time will tell but we have returned to the high 38% range..
August 6th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Frank, welcome to the fold man! Great work on those numbers, I especially look forward to breaking these down as we get closer to 2010 and maybe this fall with the gov. races. Good on ya!
August 6th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Good work Frank
August 6th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
kudos, frank. You deserve the upgrade. People new to your work will become as impressed by it as are those who have admired you fror a long time now. Well done, amigo.
August 6th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
Thanks, Frank.
I’m curious as to why Rasmussen has Obama tracking lower than Gallup? Do you know if there is particular methodological reason for this?
August 6th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Ignatius,
Scott Rasmussen surveys likely voters (LV). Gallup surveys adults. The difference between the two surveys is that not all adults are going to vote and/or not registered to vote.
In the last election, approximately 60-65% of registered voters actually went to the polls and voted.
Adults generally trend more towards to the democratic candidate. Scott Rasmussen has an article or two comparing the two types of surveys.
The difference between the two surveys is usually 3 - 5% difference, in favor of the President.
More interesting is the other survey that Scott Rasmussen does for party ID. He surveys adults for this category. It is the only poll that he does where he accepts all respondents.
In addition, he weighs his survey with the party ID that he receives. So the democrats become only 38.4% of the total while the republicans consist of 33.7% and the independents are the rest (my percentages may be off.) Gallup does not weigh their poll. This makes the survey more volatile. It surveys enthusiasm much more frequently than Rasmussen does.
I hope that this helps.
Frank
August 6th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
Welcome Frank.
August 6th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
frank, maybe it would be useful to those not familiar with stat analysis if once a week or so you explain something in depth. For example, last week you showed me the implication to the 30 day numbers, that you could cut and paste on your link. You also explain outliers a lot clearer than I do, I think. Just an idea…
August 6th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
YES FRANK!
Finally you found a blog that appreciates your hard work
Eph
August 6th, 2009 at 7:04 pm
Frank,
Can you also give the party split used for the tracking polls? A lot of us dont know that.
August 6th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Thanks, Frank..and very glad you’re here !
August 6th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
frank welcome aboard!
i am quite impressed with your polling knowledge and hope that you will also add analysis to your daily posts. sometimes polling data looks like a rorschach test to me.
August 6th, 2009 at 8:29 pm
The 3 day average seems more volatile while the 30 days shows maybe some inertia behind people being against him. Obama is pretty good at passing the blame, shielding himself from the critics. But we know his true agenda, keep it going!
August 6th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
[...] Andrew at 8:29 pm (12) Read [...]
August 7th, 2009 at 1:54 am
Wow! What a cool list of numbers!
Let’s all be Frank.
Let’s squeeze every little bit of imaginary disapproval of the President we possibly can out of imaginary numbers, please.
Here’s looking forward to a long realtionship with imaginary numbers please from an imaginary IDIOT.
Let’s see what the imaginary numbers say:
An imaginary number, in mathematics, is a number in the form bi where b is a real number and i is the square root of minus one, known as the imaginary unit. Imaginary numbers and real numbers may be combined as complex numbers in the form a + bi where a is the real part and bi is the imaginary part. Imaginary numbers can therefore be thought of as complex numbers where the real part is zero. The square of an imaginary number is a negative real number.
Imaginary numbers were defined in 1572 by Rafael Bombelli. At the time, such numbers were regarded by some as fictitious or useless, much as zero and the negative numbers. Many other mathematicians were slow to adopt the use of imaginary numbers, including Descartes who wrote about them in his La Géométrie, where the term was meant to be derogatory.[1]
Contents [hide]
1 Geometric interpretation
2 Applications of imaginary numbers
3 History
4 Powers of i
5 See also
6 Notes
7 References
8 External links
[edit] Geometric interpretation
Geometrically, imaginary numbers are found on the vertical axis of the complex number plane, allowing them to be presented orthogonal to the real axis. One way of viewing imaginary numbers is to consider a standard number line, positively increasing in magnitude to the right, and negatively increasing in magnitude to the left. At 0 on this x-axis, a y-axis can be drawn with “positive” direction going up; “positive” imaginary numbers then “increase” in magnitude upwards, and “negative” imaginary numbers “decrease” in magnitude downwards. This vertical axis is often called the “imaginary axis” and is denoted , , or simply Im.
In this representation, multiplication by −1 corresponds to a rotation of 180 degrees about the origin. Multiplication by i corresponds to a 90-degree rotation in the “positive” direction (i.e. counter-clockwise), and the equation i2 = − 1 is interpreted as saying that if we apply 2 90-degree rotations about the origin, the net result is a single 180-degree rotation. Note that a 90-degree rotation in the “negative” direction (i.e. clockwise) also satisfies this interpretation. This reflects the fact that −i also solves the equation x2 = − 1 — see imaginary unit.
[edit] Applications of imaginary numbers
For most human tasks, real numbers (or even rational numbers) offer an adequate description of data. Fractions such as ⅔ and ⅛ are meaningless to a person counting stones, but essential to a person comparing the sizes of different collections of stones. Negative numbers such as −3 and −5 are meaningless when measuring the mass of an object, but essential when keeping track of monetary debits and credits[1]. Similarly, imaginary numbers have essential concrete applications in a variety of sciences and related areas such as signal processing, control theory, electromagnetism, quantum mechanics, cartography, vibration analysis and many others.
In electrical engineering, for example, the voltage produced by a battery is characterized by one real number (called amplitude), such as +12 volts or −12 volts. But the “AC” voltage in a home requires two parameters. One is an amplitude, such as 120 volts, and the other is an angle (called phase). The voltage is said to have two dimensions. A 2-dimensional quantity can be represented mathematically as either a vector or as a complex number (known in the engineering context as phasor). In the vector representation, the rectangular coordinates are typically referred to simply as X and Y. But in the complex number representation, the same components are referred to as real and imaginary. When the complex number is purely imaginary, such as a real part of 0 and an imaginary part of 120, it means the voltage has an amplitude of 120 volts and a phase of 90°, which is physically very real.
Some programming languages have built-in support for imaginary numbers. For example, in the Python interpreter, one may use them by appending a lowercase or uppercase J to the number[2]:
>>> (5+2j) * (8+5j)
(30+41j)
Octave and Matlab examples:
>> (5+2j) * (8+5j)
ans =
30.0000 +41.0000i
>> (5+i*2) * (8+5j)
ans =
30.0000 +41.0000i
>>
[edit] History
Descartes was the first to use the term “imaginary” number in 1637. However, imaginary numbers were invented much earlier by Gerolamo Cardano in the 1500s but they were not widely accepted until the work of Leonhard Euler (1707–1783) and Carl Friedrich Gauss (1777–1855).
In 1843 a mathematical physicist, William Rowan Hamilton, extended the idea of an axis of imaginary numbers in the plane to a three-dimensional space of quaternion imaginaries.
With the development of quotients of polynomial rings, the concept behind an imaginary number became more substantial, but then one also finds other imaginary numbers such as the j of tessarines which has a square of +1. This idea first surfaced with the articles by James Cockle beginning in 1848.
James Cockle. Pretty cool name. Hell of a lot better than Frank.
August 7th, 2009 at 4:23 am
Frank,
It is great to have you here. I applaud McCain, Kate and Beth for making a very wise decision.
When I left HHR after 2 days of not seeing your numbers, I developed a keen awareness of how an ACORN worker feels after 2 days without crack. It is not pleasant.
August 7th, 2009 at 7:44 am
Thanks Frank always appreciate your work, good to see it in ‘post’ form, easier on the eyes.
August 7th, 2009 at 8:10 am
We are in some serious trouble right now, because President Barry obama is screwing us up. I mean I’m not even worried about winning 2012 I’m worried about all the crap he’s going to do within the next 3 and half year. If he gets healthcare passed then the republicans will have serious problems getting it reversed, because they’ll have a lot of problems reversing it. So we really need to protest this to the death.
August 7th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Klo,
Boy, you copy and paste very well.
I have taught mathematics for 36 years and I would put my knowledge of mathematics up against your knowledge of mathematics anytime.
These “imaginery” numbers are far from imaginery. Please notice that I have never done anything but interpret trends within the numbers.
Hopefully you can see them. The 30-day average peaked at 56.92% towards the beginning of June and has been going down steadily since then. MOE for these numbers is 0.8%
It’s now time for you to cut and paste an article and/or book on MOE.
Frank
August 7th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Maybe Klo is using Al Gore’s funny numbers or something. You can’t argue mathematics or statistics with liberals. If they understood math they would understand why socialism cannot work, yet they still cling to their silly ideas.
August 7th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
I can’t understand why someone would copy/paste an article from answers.com without understanding the basic concept that you’re trying to explain. Kloie, if you want to understand imaginary numbers, I think the easiest way would be to read the section of the article on geometric interpretation.
Imaginary numbers does not mean what you imply, but I think you’ve figured out that that’s where the road we’re all going is trying to lead you. But this could be a learning experience for you. Get a nice samuel adams (I prefer mine icy cold), and try to read the article again to build your own understanding. You can do this.
August 8th, 2009 at 9:00 am
Frank, you have been promoted from guest poster, to regular poster, from a smaller blog to a bigger one. Congratulations, you deserve it !
August 8th, 2009 at 9:01 am
klo blows. give him or her the ole 2.11
August 8th, 2009 at 9:45 am
This clip has even lower approval ratings for Obama. http://www.newsy.com/videos/obama_approval_ratings_slippin_and_slidin
August 8th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
So what ?
I predicted all these numbers last year.
August 8th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
Good work Frank, just mssin with ya.
Bottom line is you’ll save us all a lot of work and time when dealing with moonbat arguments.
Its also great for morale to see this sucker diving on a regular basis.
I cant wait to see what hes worth in 6 months