Hot off the presses, Rasumussen has his newest potential presidential election poll available showing a dead tie between Romney and Obama at 45%. The same poll shows President Obama beating Sarah Palin 48%-42%. Personally, I think this says a lot about the state of the economy more then anything else. Say what you want about Romney, he does have a better track record when it comes to financial matters then just about any major candidate. If the economy continues to be troublesome and we have a period like we did in the late 70s during the Carter administration, I think Romney has an outstanding chance of gaining the nomination and giving Obama a run for his money.
This poll also confirms what others have said for the past few months about Sarah Palin, she has a cap of about 42-43% in a popular race against Obama. In otherwords, many pundits have said they just don’t see how Palin can get over that 43% ceiling given her particular favorable/unfavorables. She is an absolute rock star amongst the base of the party, but does she expand the metaphorical tent at all? I’ve always thought that she could because she might get some support from folks like my mother who are independent type voters that swing back and forth in presidential elections. However, whenever I see polls like this I do have to wonder about that. I know polls can be meaningless and I have been a harsh critic of them myself (although Rass did pretty good last year), but I fear this does not portend well for a Palin run in 2012 at least.
Another thing interesting about this poll is Rassumussen explores what might happen if Palin decided to run as a 3rd party independent candidate:
If Romney secured the GOP nomination and Palin chose to run as an independent candidate, Obama would win the resulting three-way race with 44% of the vote. Romney is the choice of 33% of the voters under that scenario, with Palin a distant third with 16% support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
16% support is actually astonishingly high in my opinion. As much as I love the thought of an independent candidate who could capture our imagination and throw the system for a loop, the reality is that this just means Obama gets another 4 years. I’d rather have a squishy RINO then Obama for 4 more years. Time will tell, but it’s going to be fun to see who emerges and how this all shakes out in a couple of years.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Mitt Romney is not conservative.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Maybe, he’s not a Pat Buchannon, but he’s certainly more conservative then John McCain. So, the question you have to ask is, do you want someone who is mostly Conservative and electable, or do you want four more years of Obama.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Well listen I would first off want to say almost every republican in the country will be beating obama in 2012. I mean he went from a 78% approval rating to a 52% approval rating and the rest of the country thinks he is doing an even worse job on the economy and on the deficits. It’s almost comical to see how the liberal media reacts to this. On Yahoo they are literally saying obama approval rating is falling, but Michael obama is still liked by the people with a 77% approval rating. Also Mitt Romney is going to start getting attacked, because during the campaign he was talking about how he was such a great governor. Well I’m watching Glen Beck right now and his healthcare plan as governor has collapsed. Also he ran as a conservative yet he was a moderate governor. So overall he’s a flip flopper who’s healthcare system stinks. So now I will not vote for Mitt Romney and if he gets the nomination I might have to go Libertarian. And although I don’t think Palin will run in 2012 if she did and Romney had the nomination I would vote for her any day of the week. I’ll vote in the primaries for Jindal, Huckabee, Johnson, Hutchinson, or Perry. Romney will probably be my last pick in the primaries. And when I say I like most parts of his healthcare plan I only wanted the part of making people who really can afford healthcare purchase it, but I don’t support anything else in his plan. I mean let’s just nominate a Libertarian republican, because there the ones we need to fix our problems. Now there going to do it again obama will win the same way Clinton one in 92 and 96, because if Palin runs as an independent she’ll be the Ross Perot of he generation.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Still, I ask you, if you vote for the Libertarian you might as well not even vote. One of the reasons we got Obama is because a lot of the base decided to just not show up, and I don’t necessarily blame them. In fact, I was one of those who was so pissed off about our nomination of McCain that I also advocated not voting for him. However, the end result is Obama and liberal policies, I’d just as not see that.
The whole Romney flip-flopper argument is also pretty flimsy. Just like any candidate who ran, he was conservative on some things and not on others, and all candidates run to their base during the primaries. Huckabee flipped on issues, McCain did, they all do. However, Romney’s over-all philosophy is certainly to the right of McCain, although probably to the left of Palin, somewhere in between I’d guess. Is he perfect? No. Is he electable? I don’t know, but right now I’d guess more so then Palin and certainly Huckabee. If Huck gets the nomination we’re done for four more years.
July 20th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Bryan:
Trust me Romney is not the guy you should vote for, because he’s not as conservative as he’ll make you think. Now Mccain was liberal on a lot of things no question, but I’m opposed of both Romney and Mccain. Huckabee being liberal is just stupid to say go look at him on the issues. Yet if I had to give him a little advise I would say stop talking about country music and start talking about the big issues.
Now to what your saying about voting Libertarian. I say it’s useless to vote for someone you don’t believe in. Now I still will probably vote for Romney if he gets the nomination, but I want someone who’s not liberal and someone who will go to a Fair Tax, back the Gold Standard, and Drill for oil.
July 20th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
I enjoyed your post and your views.
But I think it says more about the impressive Mr. Romney than some of the fashion on our conservative side than some will admit.
Romney has authority and a proven track record. His efforts in MASS, with tax – spending reduction was admirable. He did enhance a struggling economy in MASS.
I have watched the fashion produced lousy results, ignoring some fine talent. I remember the FRED hype well, and found it was utterly baseless about a former lobbyist – Senator with a record that matched the Maverick.
Mr. Romney has a lot of clout, and for good reason. Mrs. Palin is might fine too, but I understand why many would already consider Romney a better choice than a sitting President.
I just hope, on the conservative side, we stick to basis, objectivity, facts, etc., for it is our strength.
Fashion is killing us, and greatly undermined sound conservative policy in Washington after 2004.
WFB had it right, and to embrace this hype, fashion, emotion, is always going to weaken the best for this Nation.
To see comments like “Charles” is rather disheartening, as we know Mr. Huckabee raised taxes and spent more than Bill Clinton did in Arkansas.
Mr. Romney is top notch, and the religious bigotry is sickening.
I strongly opposed the Maverick, and it is too bad, many endorsed Mr. Romney far too late. The NRO, Ms. Coulter, Rush, Hannity, Mr. Hewitt, etc., had it right. Romney was the best candidate in the last Primary.
And these poll numbers suggest a very strong candidate for 2012.
Romney would indeed make a fine President.
Let’s not self destruct again…
July 20th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
PS: Long ago, I received a number of emails of Liberal Democrats, through a blog I used to author, where they bragged about debasing Mr. Romney as being “not a conservative”, just as the anonymous above tried.
There are some very misguided, and misleading voices. Stick to the facts.
Romney is a fine conservative. Tax reduction is a fine record to run on.
July 20th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
Great post, Bryan.
There’s only one way the conservatives lose in 2012, the same way they lost in 1996. We will have a rejection of Obama’s liberal policies in 2010, the same way we rejected Clinton in 1994.
Then, the only way we get beaten in 2012, is if Palin becomes Perot and ruins it for everyone.
2009 is so much like 1993, it is eerie, isn’t it?
July 20th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
…”However, whenever I see polls like this I do have to wonder about that…”
Are you for real? Palin has been targeted with attack after attack for the past 9 month. She’s been called Stupid, Diva, Unqualified, Quitter, Politically Dead…. And with all that she’s just 7 points behind Obama. This is before she’s left Alaska, she hasn’t been around much since the election, hasn’t given any major policy speeches, hasn’t campaigned and hasn’t shown what she’s really made of. Do you really not think that if she comes out proves herself she she won’t be able to swing 5 or 6 points (at least) in her favor?
July 20th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
I guess we are going to have socialized medicine in America.
For if Obama doesn’t get it through Romney will.
After all what is Obamacare but Romneycare repackaged.
Listen to this podcast. Obama and Romney are two peas in a pod on this.
http://a1135.g.akamai.net/f/1135/18227/1h/cchannel.download.akamai.com/18227/podcast/DESMOINES-IA/WHO-AM/romney%20care%20podcast%20071709.mp3
July 20th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
Ignatius Reilly you made the obvious comparison between now and the 1990s.
But you forgot to mention that the 1990s led to where we are now. It led to OBAMA.
I honestly couldn’t think back then how there could ever be a candidate worse than Clinton, but the Democrats succeeded in finding one didn’t they!
I can’t think of any candidate worse than Obama, but if Mitt Romney wins then four, perhaps eight years later a worse candidate than Obama will win.
What is most important is to break this cycle. I don’t want a fake “republican revolution”. We NEED a TRUE CONSERVATIVE revolution. Otherwise we will end up right where we are now but only worse.
And no, I can’t imagine worse than Obama. And I don’t want to find out.
So, if Romney’s the candidate, I will do everything in my power to make sure he isn’t elected. Four more years of Obama is bad but it’s that pot and frog thing. We need to turn up the temperature on the water very high so that frog will jump out. Obama is indeed doing that. This is good. But Romney, he will really boil that frog alive with the frog just sitting there.
SO, Please don’t make me do it Republicans. Because I will. I will vote for Obama even though I am a Conservative. This isn’t a Bluff.
By the way, as bad as it is now, I still say long term it would have been worse if McCain won. We wouldn’t be even seeing a chance of this 1994 repeat that we are seeing now. But please, this time we need it to be for real. We can’t repeat the mistakes of 1994!
July 20th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Romney and Reagan have a lot in common. Both switched on the abortion issue, both were governors of liberal states, both are exceptional communicators, both were more fiscally conservative than socially conservative, and neither wore their morality on their sleeves. Reagan was a Democrat and blew his SCOTUS appointments. If we are looking for another Reagan, we’ve got him in Romney. One suspects that Romney is more conservative than Reagan, but only perceived moderates get elected whether they are actually moderate or not.
July 20th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
Ignatius Reilly is a hypocrite.
No doubt he was all rah, rah, rah McCain and when someone told him that perhaps it would be better if McCain lost as that would set up a repeat of the 1994 election he probably called that person names.
The truth is, had McCain won, we wouldn’t be seeing any hope at all. We wouldn’t be talking about how much 2010 will be a repeat of 1994.
What we would be seeing is socialized policies being enacted by a Republican President.
As much as we all hate Obama lets imagine “What If…”
For one thing the Press will be going on about how bad this Republican recession is and how the Bush-McCain bailouts haven’t helped much.
Oh, and right now we would be all mad at McCain’s Supreme Court pick. Another Lefty judge appointed by another Republican. Yeah, perhaps one can say it doesn’t matter because it hasn’t changed the balance of the court but still what a chance lost.
And as for 2010, with President McCain’s approval ratings at an all time low, there have been several more Republicans who have switched parties and will be running as Ds’ next time.
So, yeah, as bad as Obama is I Thank God McCain lost. But if Romney is the nominee, then damn you I will vote against him because just like McCain was the worst case in 2008, a Mitt Romney victory and along with it Republican Backed Socialized Medicine would be worse than another term of Obama who if he is stopped here on health care won’t be able to try again.
July 20th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
McCain I found what you just said EXTREMELY OFFENSIVE.
I remember Ronald Reagan.
Ronald Reagan was the first President who I could vote for.
And, Romney, Sir IS NO REAGAN.
So F@@@ OFF!
July 20th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
Steve, did you vote for Reagan because he was formerly a Democrat, because he had nothing to say about “campaign finance reform” enacted under Carter, or because he signed California’s pro-abortion law resulting in another half-million abortions? Or are you waxing nostalgic for Reagan because he appointed milktoast moderates to SCOTUS who quote international law, or is it that he later supported the Brady gun control bill? Please explain specifically why you voted for Reagan. And tell us why he is more conservative than Romney. Instead of whimpering like a liberal, Steve, try stating your facts now.
July 20th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
All this complaining about “Obamacare” but what he proposes isn’t much different than what Romney does.
Listen here for the truth about Obamacare. It’s really Romneycare!
This is exactly like the 1990s. It will lead to Bush (Romney) who will mess up the country with socialistlite policies and then when the Press blames the failure on “conservativism” someone worse than Obama will get in.
Stop the cycle. Voting RINO is voting the GREATER of the two evils.
July 20th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
Regardless of what Reagan may have or may not have been, he was perceived as as conservative. So was the “contract for America”. That was perceived as being conservative too.
Point is, it’s a lie to say that conservativism doesn’t win. It won in 1994. It own in 1980.
So, since conservatism does win whenever it is put out on the national stage boldly and unapologetically, let’s get people who actually believe in conservatism elected this time around.
Romney should be part of our past. There are some good people we can look towards for our future. But we will not have a future if we keep electing RINOS.
July 20th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
You are sure lucky McCain that we are separated by cyberspace because if we were face to face I would have just have smacked you.
You can’t force us through your insults to vote for your RINOS but you can get us angry enough to vote against your RINOS out of spite.
I don’t regret my vote against your namesake for one minute.
The Republican party is the party of the walking dead. Bush killed it. And even though Obama is doing the worst job I have ever seen anyone do as President, hate is not enough to get your man elected.
And when you come to Romney in the end just like McCain, you will go around not talking about what a great guy he is (because he isn’t) but about how bad Obama is. Hate just isn’t enough to win elections.
July 20th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Let’s get this straight, once and for all.
Sarah Palin may or may not win an election against Hussein.
Romney WILL NOT win an election against Hussein because the Republican base will not be there for him.
I will not be s*** on by the RNC again, never again.
Run Romney and I will not vote Republican. Run Romney and give Obama a second term on a silver platter.
You are deranged. Bryan McAffee, what side are you on?
July 20th, 2009 at 10:25 pm
Greg, Steve, you can’t fool us. You’re the same person. Please stop or you’ll be banned.
July 20th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
romney is very republican, annd is also a very nice man.
if you want to run a conservative, white, business guy, he is your man.
southern evangelicals will not vote for him because he is mormon, but if you just want a conservative, honest, and likablee guy … he is it.
not much chance of him beating obama though. he is not a good speech maker.
July 20th, 2009 at 10:35 pm
LOL, “Greg” and “Steve” (can we say “Greve”?) are the same person in Seattle. Didn’t realize there were any conservatives experts up there but nice to know.
In the last election, Obama hired trolls like Greve with too much time on their hands to spam blogs like this one with nonsense about the frontrunners.
Romey would be the most conservative president we’ve had in the modern era, more conservative than Reagan. Nobody else electable comes even close, and that’s too bad because I like Sarah Palin. Unfortunately she isn’t electable.
July 20th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
i doubt romney is electable because he is mormon …
however, all of his wives strongly support him
July 20th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
You must like socialized medicine then. Because that is what you will be getting with Romney.
July 20th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
If Obama The Muslim can get elected, so can Romney The Christian. That’s only logical, with dutiful consideration of that weird underwear thing and the fact that he is impenetrable to Lisab’s seductress ways.
Woohoo, turns out that “Greve” is a cross-dresser, not only posting as Greg and Steve, but also as Joan. What a freaky RINO.
Last warning to our Republican-imposter. Pick a handle right now or you are banned. Final answer.