Barack Obama so far has had the worst stock market performance of any new president in American history, including Franklin Delano Roosevelt during the Great Depression.
Investing Under Obama
Let’s look at the key dates in Barack Obama’s Administration so far and see what the stock market did around those dates:
November 3, 2008: Obama is Elected
November 3, 2008: 9326.04 Open
November 4, 2008: 9139.28 Close
So far, not that bad, right? However, if investors believed in Obama’s message of hope they would buy, instead of sell, around that time.
January 20, 2009: Obama is Inaugurated
January 20, 2009: 8,279.63 Open
January 20, 2009: 7,920.66 Close
Obama’s inauguration didn’t exactly make investors celebrate. Also note, between Obama’s election and inauguration, the stock market dropped 1200 points. If they believed in Obama, the stock market probably would have inched upward, even in a down economy.
February 17, 2009: Obama signs stimulus package into law.
February 17, 2009: 7,845.63 Open
February 17, 2009: 7,502.59 Close
The stimulus package clearly did not stimulate any investors into buying. Note that as of February 17, there was a 1800 point drop since the election, and a 400 point drop since inauguration.
February 27, 2009: Obama announces budget
Febraury 27, 2009: 7,180.97 Open
March 2, 2009: 6763.29 Close
As of today’s close, Obama has overseen the worst stock market performance in the history of America for a new president. It’s an unprecedented 28% drop from Obama’s election to today. If you don’t believe my numbers, you can check the historical data here.
I know EXACTLY what the liberals are going to argue: “Obama is dealing with the mess. It’s not his fault because the problems were created under the Bush Administration. The stock market is weak because of what Bush did to the economy.”
Well guess what, folks…as ANY economist will tell you, capital markets are forward-looking. The Dow Jones Industrial Average usually rises and falls based on expectations of what will happen, not based on what’s happening right now. In other words, if stocks fall, it is because investors believe the future is looking bleak, not because the present state of the economy is bad. Note that the stock market collapsed in 2001 in anticipation of the recession that followed. The stock market is collapsing now in anticipation of the fact that Obama’s plan will be ineffectual.
So far, every time Obama has moved to improve the economy, the stock market has responded with a precipitous collapse.
For another conservative take, Michelle Malkin has a lot to say about the stock market collapse under Obama here.
Meanwhile, even liberals are acknowledging that Obama’s administration is mishandling the economy. This piece in the Huffington Post acknowledges that Obama’s economic team is failing to act effectively, though the author still refuses to criticize her Messiah.
Investors so far are unequivocal in their opinion of Obama. They have zero confidence in him, as we further report on here. If investors had any confidence in Obama’s vision of the future, they would be buying stock right now instead of heading for the hills.
Be Afraid. Be Very Very Very Afraid.
See an interesting video on Obama and the stock market below:
Obama Fail
March 2nd, 2009 at 1:48 pm
This is great stuff…it is amazing that liberals can be so stupid
March 2nd, 2009 at 1:59 pm
January 20, 2001: 10,659
January 20, 2009: 8,279
-22.3%
March 2nd, 2009 at 2:13 pm
I think that Obama will be right up at the top of the less as the worst most inept President in history. But the press and the liberals will claim that he had too much to fix to get her done.
At least if we had McCain, we would not be headed done the road Barry in Charge is taking us.
March 2nd, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Interesting to see LeftRightLeft indicating that we would be better under Bush because under Obama the fall has been in a matter of days instead of years. Interesting observation, LeftRightLeft. Is this the power of hopechangery?
March 2nd, 2009 at 5:01 pm
I noticed that about LRL too. I believe he’s coming around to the right. If LRL had done an analysis from January 20, 2001 to the point of Obama’s nomination as the Democrat’s candidate – it would show a much different picture. It started falling about that time and has been in steep decline since.
Its sad that the left has to fudge the numbers. That shows that even they know something is terribly wrong.
March 2nd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Of course leftrightleft doesn’t mention the fact that between January 2001 and January 2008 the stockmarket surged above 14000 to it’s highest level ever. EVER.
March 2nd, 2009 at 6:37 pm
Sorry Ignatius, this is some weak tea. As you said, and I wholeheartedly agree, the markets are forward looking. The DOW fell 359 points on January 20th. I’m pretty sure people on Wall Street knew in advance that was inauguration day. If there was anything Obama-centric driving the market for that day, it would have been factored in weeks prior.
Obama is trying to catch a falling knife. On 5/20/08 the market was at 13,026. By Obama’s first full day, 1/21, the market had lost over 5000 points in 8 months. A 40% drop.
Things have been bad since May. Things are bad now. It’s kind of pointless to argue which period had the worse rate of decline since they are both approaching zero in a hurry.
Clearly action is required. Your team didn’t fix it in 8 months. Obama has been in office for about 45 days. Let’s all be Americans and see how this plays out. Definitely *do* call him out on specifics that you disagree with (spending vs taxes, etc) but don’t serve up this drivel. Make your predictions, but wait until there are sufficient data points to cast a verdict. Let’s see some of these program work or can official say “failed”.
I will make a prediction, and it’s based on what some wise old investor said months ago. The market is not going to start dropping until everyone, even the Wall Street veterans, are about hopeless and wondering if there will ever be a bottoming out. But once you reach that point where nearly EVERYONE is scared, THAT is when you have bottomed out.
I think that was today. My prediction is that the market won’t get more than 500 points lower than today and should at least finish 2009 at the plus side of 7000 to 8000. The job market generally lags by about 6 months, so the job losses will continue through September.
The question is, how anemic will things be and for how long after the bleeding has stopped? I think 2010 is going to be a great year.
March 2nd, 2009 at 6:42 pm
I need to proof read before I post. I meant “the market is not going to STOP dropping until…”
Oh, and Shannon, the market fell by 6000 points on Bush’s watch, the most ever. EVER. And left it in that state of free fall for the next guy (sorry, couldn’t resist)
March 2nd, 2009 at 10:26 pm
[...] Ignatius Reilly Obama Stock Market Performance: Dow Jones Under Obama Let’s look at the key dates in Barack Obama’s Administration so far and see what the stock [...]
March 2nd, 2009 at 11:17 pm
“…between January 2001 and January 2008 the stockmarket surged above 14000 to it’s highest level ever.”
… and then?
March 3rd, 2009 at 12:14 am
LRL – …. and then?
And then … having a democratic Congress and the increasing likelihood of Obama being the democratic nominee, things started getting shaky. THEN, once he was the nominee and continued to talk of a socializing the USA, things started going downhill. From that point on … well, you can read how bad it has gotten from Ignat’s post. It seems ever time obama opens his mouth, the stock market crashes a little further.
I have noticed that the worse things get, the harder he is to find. He’s not so anxious to be on television every 5 minutes when he’s not the toast of the town. But showing his face in light of his utter failure in the first month of his Presidency would take a little bit of guts, wouldn’t it.
March 3rd, 2009 at 1:29 am
Oh Rob, Obama fumbled that knife and plunged it like a dagger into the heart of our economic well-being. Your analysis is thoughtful but misses the point that markets react to Obama. He is moving markets with job-killing socialist policies.
That market reaction actually began summer of last year when it became clear who would win the election. Those socialism fears haven’t gelled even today with everyone so dumbfounded about what foolish things he is proposing, but as more and more socialist policies are revealed, the business sector reacts in predictable ways.
This is now the Obama recession as he has taken a bad situation and turned it into a disaster. Hoover rammed through tax increases in 1931, and now we have another incompetent president proposing the same thing, except he has history to guide him so Obama is willfully dangerous, or stupid, or both.
March 3rd, 2009 at 5:08 am
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March 3rd, 2009 at 5:54 am
McCain, just like I’m not going to declare Obama’s policies “the policies that saved us all” you should not declare the knife was plunged into our hearts or other such nonsense. There hasn’t been enough time to judge.
Your comment about when the market started to decline doesn’t hold water. As I said the market was at 13,026 on May 20th. By the end of June, it was at 11,345. Down approaching 2000 points in little more than a month, before Obama was nominated. Down about 3000 points from the highs. Please get the timeline straight.
If Obama’s policies don’t work and are just a play towards socialism, then the American people will and should punish Democrats severely in 2010.
I’m not worried about it.
March 3rd, 2009 at 5:57 am
BTW, Hoover was a Republican. Get your facts straight: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_Hoover
March 3rd, 2009 at 7:56 am
Robbie,
You are drinking the Obama Butt Flavored Kool-Aid. Barry in Charge has no idea what he is doing. He makes great speeches, but that is not the sign of a true leader. A real leader takes you willingly where you don’t think you want to go and he makes you feel good about it along the way.
The market began to correct itself and does fine on its own. But Bush and now BIC are messing with it but not fixing the problem. Throwing money at companies that can’t manage it it not the answer.
This goes back to selling houses to people that could not pay for them.
March 3rd, 2009 at 9:56 pm
Ignatius, the third thing they teach you in any good statistics course is the difference between correlation and causality. A correlation of variables does not show causality. A perfect correlation, say a linear or log-linear correlation says absolutely nothing about causality. We all know the causation of this mess was hatched in Corporate executive suites, lack of corporate directors providing meaningful oversight, and in fact being in collusion with the execs, unheard of leverage practiced on the greenspan era of liquidity, and no regulation coming out of washington, congress or the white house, and in fact even if the white house was politically opposed to interfering by regulating, the agencies were mandated by law to regulate, so add malfeasance to the mix. Congress can get away with political excuses, but the white house can’t. As the whole house of cards came tumbling down, the bush clan skeedaddled out of washington to a better life back in texas and where ever those kind of people go after they wreak the joint. Obama inherited a mess that took decades to culminate starting in the reagan era,. The stock market has also correlated the banking crises, the moneys dispensed to b or a, citigroup, aig, fannie and freddie, and the other players. But being a loyal repub party man you unscientifically annoint obama as the fault. It is just so so disingenuous, once again. You guys are so ideological and unscientific about your thinking I would call your analysis as very political unscientifical. Also show statistics a little respect and don’t “use it” to make your unscientific party claims.
March 4th, 2009 at 1:01 am
Brian Brian Brian…
Take your linear log and shove it. You’re not making any sence. Just look at history and you’ll find that you’re a socialist. Fact:
Recession from 2000 to 2003: Clinton’s fault.
Foreclosure crisis of early 2008: Clinton/Dodd’s fault.
Market Crash and recession of late 2008/2009: Obama’s fault.
Any growth in Clinton’s term was because of the GOP congress. Any growth in between 2003 and 2007 was because of the Bush tax cuts. Any future growth will be in SPITE of Obama, not because of him.
See, this is easy. Don’t think. Just type.
March 4th, 2009 at 3:09 am
leftrightleftrightleftright your brain marched off a cliff long ago. You are as logical as a piece of peach pie inside an omlet used as a door stop. You’re understanding of causalty is equivalent to pouring rain water over cotten candy. a brain is a terrible thing to waste, but you don’t have to worry about that, no sir eeeee! The repubs tried their very best to sink this nation on a number of fronts and now talk mumbo jumbo with the glee of an selfish addict who needs another fix.
March 5th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Wow….the complete and utter willful ignorance up here is simply astounding.
Blaming Obama for the unwinding of the grossly over-leveraged financials (Thanks to Henry Paulson and Phil Gramm for that) is pure madness. This market crash has been coming for years and was going to happen no matter who was president.
March 5th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Bush 33% drop from 10/07 peak to 11/3/08 – 13 months
Obama 29% drop from 11/3/08 to 3/5/09 – 4 months
The equity markets are forward looking and they don’t like what they see.
March 6th, 2009 at 11:14 am
You can’t be this myopic. The Dow was at 10,578 when Bush took office. When he left it had fallen to 7,949. The National Debt was $5.6 trillion when Bush took office. When he left it was $11 trillion and climbing fast.
Bush left a raging fire when he left office. Obama hasn’t even had time to pull out a fire hose yet and you’re calling him an arsonist.
March 9th, 2009 at 7:21 am
I guess you forgot to publish the numbers leading up to the election:
Dow on Oct 2008: 13,930
Dow on Nov. 3, 08: 9,3236
a 33% drop….are you afraid of stating all the facts…..?
March 9th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
[...] we reported here, stocks have crashed in an unprecedented fashion under the Obama administration. Since I posted [...]
March 9th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Left wing nuts make me laugh. Seriously… any thing that goes right is completely their idea. Democrats are all socialist who want “the government to control everything”. Yet no one has really even mentioned the fact about oil inflation being a HUGE part of the stock market climbing that high. On top of that.. everyone is dead right to say stock investors don’t believe in President Obama, the vast majority probably voted for McCain, so it would be their natural response to sell sell sell.
Obama hasn’t even gotten his second foot in the door before left wingers are fixin to linch him. I mean c’mon.. we had an idiot in the white house for 8 years and republicans still will not call stand by his side NOR call him out for taking misleading steps. You guys are beyond lame… go read a book or something…