According to John Zogby’s daily tracking poll, John McCain is surging. He is leading Obama in Friday polling 48%-47%, as late undecided voters appear to be breaking heavily for McCain. The surprising McCain lead is consistent with poll samples of early voting in key battleground states including Florida and Nevada, indicating that the race is much closer than advertised.
Highlights of the latest Zogby poll:
–McCain 48%, Obama 47%
–McCain leads among blue collar voters.
–McCain leading heavily among men.
–McCain commanding lead among so-called “NASCAR voters.”
This is a result from Friday polling only out of the three-day daily tracking poll. Zobgy samples about 400 voters each day, ending at 5pm each day, for a total of 1200 in the rolling average. The prior days showed Obama up 5 points. We will know Monday if the surge continues through the weekend. If so, expect McCain to be up a couple of 2-3 points on Monday.
Results will be released at 1am EST on November 1st.
The results seem consistent with a surge among the old “Reagan Democrats.” Internal campaign polling has picked up the phenomenon, which is why both Obama and campaign have increased their advertising budgets in Pennsylvania, a state which pundits had assumed was safe for Obama. Apparently it is quite competitive.
(Earlier video)
October 31st, 2008 at 9:35 pm
From fivethirtyeight.com:
“… Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.
There are a couple of significant problems with this.
Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.
Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don’t like to do.
Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.
Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don’t move without a reason (or at least they don’t move much).”
October 31st, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Thank God , Finally our prayers are heard. Sen. McCain is winning.
November 1st, 2008 at 12:02 am
Allen, polls move without reason all the time. See New Hampshire in January. California in February.
Also, this isn’t a case of people changing their minds. This is a case of undecideds making a decision. So the polls didn’t “move.” No one changed their minds. People who didn’t make up their minds decided to make up their minds, mostly in McCain’s favor.
November 1st, 2008 at 4:52 am
This is reminding me more and more of Reagan-Carter 1980.
You’ll recall that Reagan was “losing” until the last week.
November 1st, 2008 at 7:15 am
Certain polls can have outliers. Just look at yesterday’s Gallup +8 result. Every other mainstream poll show a +2-+4 result for Obama, yet Gallup goes from +3-+8 in one day, so outliers definitely exist. The question is, what is the over all trend for the last week/week and an half? Clearly the race is tightening.
So, in my mind 1 of 2 things is going to happen. If the Democrats really do vote with a +7 advantage (the weight that Ras and others use) then this race is basically in the MOE already. In that case, its basically a toss-up, close advantage to Obama. However, this would be an ahistoric turnout for Dems and would essentially represent a 7-10 point swing since 2004. At least since 1976, we have never seen such a partisan swing in a national election.
On the other-hand, lets assume that the partisan turnout is closer to 2004, which was essentially 50/50, or to be generous, lets use the 2006 weight which was Dem +3. Using that assumption, Obama is in real trouble. I don’t know which scenario plays out, but I think this Tuesday is going to be very interesting to watch.
November 1st, 2008 at 11:33 am
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/25 – 10/31 – – 50.2 43.7 Obama +6.5
Rasmussen Reports 10/29 – 10/31 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/29 – 10/31 2516 LV 2.0 52 42 Obama +10
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/29 – 10/31 2480 LV 2.0 52 42 Obama +10
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/29 – 10/31 1201 LV 2.9 49 44 Obama +5
Diageo/Hotline 10/29 – 10/31 876 LV 3.6 51 44 Obama +7
Marist 10/29 – 10/29 543 LV 4.5 50 43 Obama +7
GWU/Battleground 10/27 – 10/30 800 LV 3.5 49 45 Obama +4
ABC News/Wash Post 10/27 – 10/30 1580 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
FOX News 10/28 – 10/29 924 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3
IBD/TIPP 10/26 – 10/30 894 LV 3.0 48 44 Obama +4
CBS News/NY Times 10/25 – 10/29 1005 LV – 52 41 Obama +11
From:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Cheers,
David
November 1st, 2008 at 4:10 pm
I dont by the zogby poll and matt drudge is clearly pro mccain and its biased his site. Don’t underestimate obama’s ability to turn out the vote with a lot of new voters, minorities, and independents. Mccain would have done better if he ran a more positive campaign, and after bush and the many years of fear mongering media people are turned off by fear invoking tactics.
November 1st, 2008 at 7:29 pm
I don’t know who to believe right now. The polls are all over the place. I’m just in a wait-and-see mode.
But, I think my co-worker who is an avid Obama supporter put it best. Something just doesn’t FEEL right. I don’t know what it is, and I’m not making any psychic predictions, but I fear election day right now.
November 2nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
What a difference a day makes. As Zogby himself said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. Now it seems that Obama has in fact solidified his lead over McCain nationally and has a lock on enough electoral votes that a McCain victory is now all but impossible. Still it sure it fun to watch you guys get all excited about a one day phone poll. Keep on watching Fox. They will call the election for McCain even if he loses in a landslide. You have to admire their singleminded focus.
November 2nd, 2008 at 8:36 am
A pollster like Zogby knows full well you get statistical noise when conducting ongoing polls… but I guess he wanted to create some interest.
Turns out that’s all it was – statistical noise. Obama returns to a 52-52 lead on Saturday.
November 2nd, 2008 at 12:22 pm
The American people are a lot smarter than the Democrats give them credit for….They understand that “spreading the wealth” via government taking away from some hard working people and giving it to people who don’t pay much- if any taxes- is welfare and socialism…
They don’t need polls to tell them this- they know it in their hearts…..I never knew a politician who wanted to raise taxes on one group who didn’t later want to raise them on others…Welfare and socialist policies don’t work and have never worked…The tide is surging for McCain….and he will win…
November 2nd, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Did you ever notice how upset the Dems get, if anything goes Mccains way, its as if there should not even be another candidate in the race. I am so sick of the ads while I am watchng TV, it is all the same stuff, and that infomercial was ridiculous. This man thinks he is God
September 22nd, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Fantastic post, very much useful information. I found your blog a few days ago on Google and have been reading it over the past few days. I am goint to subscribe your blog. Btw, here is where you can download nhac mp3 for free.