According to John Zogby’s daily tracking poll, John McCain is surging. He is leading Obama in Friday polling 48%-47%, as late undecided voters appear to be breaking heavily for McCain. The surprising McCain lead is consistent with poll samples of early voting in key battleground states including Florida and Nevada, indicating that the race is much closer than advertised.
Highlights of the latest Zogby poll:
–McCain 48%, Obama 47%
–McCain leads among blue collar voters.
–McCain leading heavily among men.
–McCain commanding lead among so-called “NASCAR voters.”
This is a result from Friday polling only out of the three-day daily tracking poll. Zobgy samples about 400 voters each day, ending at 5pm each day, for a total of 1200 in the rolling average. The prior days showed Obama up 5 points. We will know Monday if the surge continues through the weekend. If so, expect McCain to be up a couple of 2-3 points on Monday.
Results will be released at 1am EST on November 1st.
The results seem consistent with a surge among the old “Reagan Democrats.” Internal campaign polling has picked up the phenomenon, which is why both Obama and campaign have increased their advertising budgets in Pennsylvania, a state which pundits had assumed was safe for Obama. Apparently it is quite competitive.