I for one have not put much stock into polling this season. Nearly every poll from Zogby, to Rasumussen to Gallup weight their polls using an insane Democrat weighting of nearly + 7%. Why is this an insane weighting? Because in 2004 the same amount of Democrats and Republicans voted and in 2006, a very good Democrat year, there was a +3 Democrat advantage. To assume that Obama will have +7 is pure fantasy in my mind.
What proof do I offer that there will not be a +7 Democrat turnout? None. However, all you have to do is look at what the Gallup Poll is doing to prove my point. They actually have three different polls, the Gallup Expanded, the Gallup Traditional and a Registered voter model. The fact that Gallup has three different models just proves they have no idea what is going to happen. So, with that in mind, Gallup’s new poll showing McCain just two points behind Obama at 49-47 is great news.
I fully expect more tightening in these polls in the final week because none of these pollsters want to get egg on their faces, so to retain some degree of credibility they will have to show this race getting tighter, because it is.
October 28th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
All the polls have had some tightening in the last week. I have no idea who to believe anymore.
My guess is Obama is still ahead by a few points, but I think the actual results will surprise a lot of people.
October 28th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
It would be a good time to find Osama Bin Laden right now.
October 28th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
We may get an early Zogby peak at Drudge again??
October 28th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
The silent voters are out there. These voters are for McCain and it will surprise the outcome.
October 28th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Everytime I answer the poll calls (and yes they call my cell, i do not have a home phone… they still find me) I give my stats then explain i am voting for obama, definitly showing up to vote, and blame it on the rich getting richer….
Read between the lines… the polls believe me, so there is no need to show up and vote…..Obama is way ahead…sleep in…..Unless I lied?… and maybe alot like me have been lying also?….. Operation Caos Pt.2 already underway
October 28th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
I know more than a handful of folks that have lied to Obama pollsters because they figured if they had their cell phone number, they had their name and address too, and are afraid of what will happen if Obama loses.As I’ve mentioned before, it’s a darn sad day when people have to be closet McCain supporters .
October 28th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
LOL! I love this. Republicans are full of s#*t you guys just can’t handle that McSame is going to lose in a landslide. The funniest comment so far has been JoAnne Thomas’ Yet more crazy BS from that right wing lunatic!!!
October 28th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Heh, McSame. This Jaxon guy is clever. You get it, it kind of sounds like McCain, but they changed out the “cain” with “same” implying that he is the same as Bush. Zoiks Scoob, that’s grade A cleverosity right there.
I hope all you libs come back here Election night. I don’t know if McCain is going to win or loose, but its going to be a heck of a lot closer then you think it is.
October 28th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
JaxON something ! Guess you would have to live where I do to understand there is a genuine fear in some people. Your chosen one has run a very aggressive and intimidating campaign.
I pity those of you that allowed yourselves to be so brainwashed…did it hurt ?
October 28th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
[commenter 30-day suspension for violating comment policy.]
October 28th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Seriously, I don’t see this election ending nicely.
Call me superstitious, but something just doesn’t FEEL right.
I don’t know how this will end, but I don’t see the loser going gently into that good night. I hope I’m wrong.
October 29th, 2008 at 10:37 am
I’m still hoping Hillary can win.
I live on the Ohio/WV border - a friend posited the other night that there are a lot of “closet” Obama voters in the area.
I don’t align myself with most of you politically, but we do certainly share an interest in the process, etc.
It will be interesting to watch the continued coverage of “massive early voting” and then the results when they start coming in on Election Day…. of course, no exit polls will have data on the early voters.
Will they?
October 29th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Deborah, if you think Hillary can still win, you are the most optimistic person on the planet
I will go way out on a limb and make a prediction.
McCain wins the electoral college 270-268. Obama wins the popular vote 51 to 48. But there are enough problems on election day that Obama alleges fraud. We have MASS chaos.
What do I base this on? Nothing, except that the polls are tightening, and my general “spider sense” has been going bonkers this week.
October 29th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
These two campaigns have made the Bush/Gore race look like a lovefest.
I’m with Iggy, its gonna get uuuuuugly.
October 30th, 2008 at 3:34 am
As a general rule I dismiss the polls, they can’t all be accurate and they create a lot more trouble than they are worth. When there are several polls out that have the race anywhere from 2 to 15 points most of them have to be wrong. I don’t know if it’s intentional but since they are wrong they don’t serve their intended purpose and when they end up not matching the election results they create animosity and fuel the conspiracty theorists.
Most lilkely Obama leads by a couple of points but with it that close the key is not who leads but who’s supporters show up. I’d rather be down 51% to 49% and have 75% of my supporters show up to vote than have the lead and have 60% vote.