I for one have not put much stock into polling this season. Nearly every poll from Zogby, to Rasumussen to Gallup weight their polls using an insane Democrat weighting of nearly + 7%. Why is this an insane weighting? Because in 2004 the same amount of Democrats and Republicans voted and in 2006, a very good Democrat year, there was a +3 Democrat advantage. To assume that Obama will have +7 is pure fantasy in my mind.

What proof do I offer that there will not be a +7 Democrat turnout? None. However, all you have to do is look at what the Gallup Poll is doing to prove my point. They actually have three different polls, the Gallup Expanded, the Gallup Traditional and a Registered voter model. The fact that Gallup has three different models just proves they have no idea what is going to happen. So, with that in mind, Gallup’s new poll showing McCain just two points behind Obama at 49-47 is great news.

I fully expect more tightening in these polls in the final week because none of these pollsters want to get egg on their faces, so to retain some degree of credibility they will have to show this race getting tighter, because it is.