Gallup: McCain 49% - Obama 45%!
The latest Gallup / USA Today poll shows John McCain with a statistically insignificant 4% lead over Barack Obama among likely voters, a +10 McCain surge since June. Among all registered voters, people who will vote and people who won’t vote, there is still a slight preference for Obama.
McCain Surges Ahead of Obama
John McCain’s surge has analysts puzzled. While Obama got most of the media attention on a mad dashing tour in Europe, McCain worked quietly on the home front addressing economic problems to a domestic audience.
Earlier there appeared to be a two day upswing for Obama building, but that was erased after the weekend. Rasmussen Reports polls Obama only 3% ahead, which includes the weekend sample which generally skews Democratic. Veteran political pundits are giving John McCain excellent chances.
According to pollster Bill McInturff, there is a reason for Obama’s drop.
“They’ve known John McCain for years. But people say in focus groups, ‘Who the heck is Barack Obama? Had you heard of him before six months ago?’”
There also appears to be a backlash against what many people consider over-the-top coverage of Obama in Europe. The last news on that trip was when Obama canceled a trip to visit wounded troops, which seems to have outdone any impressions that came earlier in the week. That story seems to resonate as the McCain surge is showing.
Additionally, while Iraqi President al-Maliki’s gaffe appeared to help Obama among the chattering class, voters may have interpreted it to wonder if Obama was cozying up too much in the Middle East.
McCain’s economic plan appears to be gaining strength, particularly a comprehensive plan to address high gas prices and the energy crisis in the long-term. As the public learns the details of Obama’s policies, they may be turning to McCain for vision.
Obama’s collapse in the Gallup / USA Today poll may be an aberration or it may be the beginning of the end for the Democrat hopeful. The poll was conducted July 25-27, 2008, using 791 likely voters.
McCain Surge, Obama Collapse (Video)
July 28th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
Susan Estrich has a good article on why Obama’s arrogance is working against him.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,391473,00.html
She says his camp thinks he can’t lose. My personal opinion is that he won’t win a single state.
July 29th, 2008 at 1:57 am
ok i have a question about Ruth Hearn.
“She resides in San Diego with her puppy who thinks she’s human.”
her puppy thinks Ruth is human? as opposed to … what?
July 29th, 2008 at 2:03 am
i still think if mccain picked petraeus he’d win HUGE …
if he doesn’t, and obama picks hillary, (assuming she would accept), i think obama probably wins.
i give obama a 60% chance right now, even given the above poll. if mccain picked petraeus, assuming he isn’t a drunk or gay or something, i would give obama 10%, with hillary maybe 20%.
July 29th, 2008 at 5:23 am
FiveThirtyEight.com has an analysis of this poll and the results don’t make any sense (note how the Gallup 3-day tracking poll has Obama up by 8).
If you look at the internals of this poll, they show Obama up by 4 among registered voters, but McCain up by 5 among likely voters. There were 109 “unlikely” voters (registered voters who aren’t likely voters). Based on the results, they would have had to have supported Obama 61-7. The results of this poll argue that 16% of Obama supporters aren’t planning to vote, versus just 2% of McCain supporters.
July 29th, 2008 at 5:24 am
There was a lot of coverage last night of McCain’s possible new cancer, if it turns out it’s a relapse of the most severe form of skin cancer, we could be talking about a different nominee.
July 29th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Yeah Bob, that’s a lot of funny talk about a mole, more proof that hyperventilating liberals literally make mountains out of molehills.
Lisa, it won’t be general Petraeus. McCain is an even more respected military leader than the general in the public’s eye so he doesn’t need more of that on the ticket. He will want a female, black, young, conservative governor from a swing state.
July 29th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Ras’s new daily tracking has Obama up +1. What bounce was that again?
July 29th, 2008 at 8:47 am
270 needed to nominate.
Pollster.com current electoral college composite:
Obama - 284 (231 strong, 53 lean)
McCain - 147 (72 strong, 75 lean)
Tossup - 107
Every toss-up state was a Bush state in 2004 except New Mexico.
FiveThirtyEight.com current EC projection:
Obama: 289.5
McCain: 239.5
RealClearPolitcs current EC projection:
(without toss-ups)
Obama: 322
McCain: 216
(with toss-ups)
Obama: 238 (153 solid, 85 leaning)
McCain: 163 (99 solid, 64 leaning)
Toss-Up: 137
The election is Obama’s to lose, and Republicans only have a few short weeks to decide if they really want to nominate a guy with virtually no chance to win.
July 29th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Hedgehog is a better source for those state-by-states
http://www.hedgehogreport.com/polls2008prezev.php?gop=McCain&dem=Obama
Keep in mind the state polls lag the national polls by weeks. You’ll see McCain catching up in the electoral college math in a couple of weeks:
The election is Obama’s to lose, yes indeed, which is to say it is a referendum on Obama which is typical after an 8-year presidency. So far the public says he isn’t ready and they are right. Normally you would expect the challenging party to be ahead 10-15 points at this stage.
July 29th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Hedgehog has it at 334 - 204 for Obama, which is more lopsided than any of the sites I provided.
They show Obama picking up Bush 2004 states including Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia. McCain picks up absolutely nothing.
Did you have another example of McCain’s strength that you wanted to share with us?
We’ll see a lull for the next few weeks as VP choices are announced and we have the Olympics. Then it’s on to the conventions and by Labor Day we’ll have a much better idea of where things stand.
Unless…McCain’s mole is cancerous……
July 29th, 2008 at 9:41 am
They are the best site for the electoral comparisons so bookmark them and return often. But the caveat in #9 applies to all of these sites, so ignore at your peril lest a loyal Obamahead be too shocked.
July 29th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Of course, at this point in 2004 the election was Kerry’s to loose as well. I just have little confidence in polls any more, particularly with the Bradley effect, etc. We may indeed have another 2000 on our hands where the election is not known right away. I really believe this thing is going to be razor thin.
July 29th, 2008 at 10:02 am
hedgehog flips a state based on the last poll published, regardless of who publishes it, they are not that picky about who the poll was from.
so, what about Ruth Hearn’s misguided puppy (see #2)?
July 29th, 2008 at 10:44 am
lisab lmao.
i have no faith in polls. people lie and are flaky in there follow through.
July 29th, 2008 at 11:50 am
“Mountains out of molehills”
Me like.
July 29th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
“Beth Shaw says:
My personal opinion is that [Obama] won’t win a single state.”
That’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. Do you work here?
July 29th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Do you rightpundits really believe that the national polls mean anything at all, at this stage? Especially and outlier poll. Seriously, you guys have your head in the muck.
July 29th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
“Anything at all” encompasses a rather large universe. A bump for Obama would have signaled that his European trip was politically successful. Unfortunately for him the “not ready” label still sticks. So clearly it means something. But not much, dear Obamacon.
The last poll has Obama trailing in Hawaii which I find interesting. Maybe Beth is on to something, eh?
July 29th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Obamacon, who ever said that National Polls don’t mean anything. I said I have very little faith in them and I think the history of polling bears that out.
I’ll say this, if they do mean something, you better be worried. At this point Democrats usually have a statistically significant lead in national polls, which Obama really does not. Things are going to get worse and if you think Kerry getting “Swift Boated” was bad, wait until the 527s get going on Obama. You should have nominated Hillary, you would then have probably a 75% chance of winning, right now your odds are 50/50 at best.
July 29th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Ok - let’s look at the states then.
Strategic Vision released a poll on PA today showing Obama up by 9. McCain led by 3-8 points in their previous polls.
They also released a poll on Washington State, showing Obama up by 11, maintaining his previous lead.
Public Policy released a poll today on NC showing McCain up by 3, within the margin of error of the poll. Previous polls had McCain further ahead.
July 30th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Mary Katherine Ham linked this post. I can die now a happy man.
July 30th, 2008 at 9:21 am
PPP just released their Michigan poll, Obama is up by 3.
McCain is spending more money in Ohio, PA and Michigan than anywhere else. He trails in Michigan and PA, and polls are mixed in Ohio
July 30th, 2008 at 9:24 am
The last poll has Obama trailing in Hawaii which I find interesting. Maybe Beth is on to something, eh?
Was this was a poll you took using just Micky at the participant? The last published poll from HI showed Obama with a 30 point lead.
July 31st, 2008 at 6:00 am
Keep in mind the state polls lag the national polls by weeks. You’ll see McCain catching up in the electoral college math in a couple of weeks:
Latest hedgehog report:
Obama: 354
McCain: 184
That’s a gain of 20 EVs for Obama in the last week.
July 31st, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Patience, Grasshopper. I said couple of weeks, not 2 days. Keep checking that site and let me know when the battleground states use polls that sampled from this week and after.