Time is reporting that McCain has bought 60 second ad spots in at least 4 Virginia markets, including Roanoke, Richmond, Norfolk and the Tri-Cities. Clearly these are huge military areas of the state, so it makes sense to buy ads here. Traditionally Virginia has gone Republican and Bush won the state easily in 2000 and 2004. If McCain is spending time and money in Virginia, this is at least a probable indication that his internals are not as strong as they should be for a state that his historically been pretty red. Indeed, the RCP only has McCain up 0.7 points in Virginia. Before the Obama camp gets too confident, Virginia is an interesting state which has been trending more Democratic in recent elections, however typically when they do vote Democratic they like the blue dog/conservative Democrats. A good example of this is the very close election of Senator Jim Webb. There were a lot of components to the Webb victory (the Mccaca thing was bunk), but he, like many of the Democrats who won in 2006 (Heath Schuler is another example) were all very conservative Democrats, in some cases more classically conservative then their Republican counterpart. I still have a difficult time seeing a pretty Chicago liberal winning Virginia, but with a substantial black population things could definitely be closer this year then in elections past. If I had to bet my mortgage, I’d say McCain wins the state by 4 points, but if I’m Obama I’m definitely feeling good about things at this point of the game too.