Here is the thread for Oregon exit polls and election results for the Oregon primary. We will live-blog throughout the day on May 20th, 2008 for the Democrat primary so use this thread to start the dialog. Winners will be posted as soon as we can make the call.
52 delegates will be divided by Clinton and Obama.
The latest poll shows Hillary Clinton pulling within 5 points of Barack Obama. That is difficult to believe given the historic crowd that turned out to hear Obama speak on May 18th. But that is why pollsters are paid good money for their craft, and that is why we eventually vote.
Not to be outdone, Hillary Clinton dispatched her secret weapons to the “beaver” state. Yes, there is a pun here but I will not be the one to make it.
From the unintentional humor department, the Reverend Chuck Currie issued an Oregon primary prayer to make sure everyone votes right. Currie’s United Church of Christ, which is based in Marxist Liberation Theology, remains under IRS investigation for illegally assisting the Obama campaign.
We will give you the data and make the call before any of the major news sources. They will keep you hanging for ratings, while we will give you the facts just as early as they are known.
Here are the polls on election eve:
Oregon Polls
All of the latest pre-election polls are here, a sampling of which is below.
American Research Group (May 14-16):
Hillary Clinton - 45%
Barack Obama - 50%PPP (May 10-11):
Hillary Clinton - 39%
Barack Obama - 53%Rasmussen (May 1):
Hillary Clinton - 39%
Barack Obama - 51%Survey USA (May 9-11):
Hillary Clinton - 43%
Barack Obama - 54%
May 20th, 2008 Live-blogging Updates:
Oregon exit poll data (Democrat):
(Updated throughout the day)
Update 9am PST - The heat wave which struck the west this week is over. Oregonians head to the polls under balmy, rainy skies and temperatures ranging from 50-60 degrees. Rain is possible off and on throughout the day.
Update 9.30am PST - Estimates of the giant crowd that saw Obama speak on Sunday have been downsized to about 40,000. That is still pretty impressive.
Update 10am PST - Obama’s GOTV is apparently working in Oregon. Record turnout expected. This evening Obama will announce a majority of pledged delegates, which is a milestone for the campaign. Expect a very high profile delegate to put him over the top which will maximize the publicity. Stay tuned.
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Update 12:03 PDT - [MBT] I just received a fundraising letter from Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith (R) who is asking for “Emergency donations” to counter Democratic television ads. I found it ironic that he was telling Oregonians to not listen to those outside the state, and in particular those from Washington D.C. try to defeat him for “purely political reasons.” Um… it is a political election. I guess our non-Oregon dollars are OK though. It appears that the Senate race may have some impact on turnout in Oregon.
11:00pm (ET) - Polls closed in Oregon. Oregon is called for Obama.
11:10pm (ET) - 16% polls in: 108,939 (61%), 673,531 (39%)
Published exit poll data.
Oregon Primary Results (Democrats):
Update 4.30pm PST - Barack Obama projected to win the Oregon primary.










May 19th, 2008 at 10:36 am
McCain-not funny.
May 20th, 2008 at 3:30 am
I think I’ll hang in here today the kentucky exit polls are likely to be too depressing…and here we go….another day of punditry
May 20th, 2008 at 4:47 am
Ahh drifter, lighten up!
May 20th, 2008 at 5:08 am
13-15 point win for Obama in Oregon, 25-30 to Clinton in Kentucky.
It’ll go as expected, just like every other single primary in the recent months…
May 20th, 2008 at 6:44 am
I agree with Martin, I expect a 12 point win for Obama. If Hillary gets it to less then 10 that is a good showing, less then 5 is a win for her.
May 20th, 2008 at 7:59 am
i think obama will carry oregon by 20 and lose ky by 25….
May 20th, 2008 at 8:13 am
Much of the Oregon exit poll data is already in because Oregon votes by mail. The exit poll data based on all ballots already mailed in (the sample is conducted based on those lists of completed ballots) is showing the following: Obama 69%, Clinton 31%. Looks very good for Obama based on all data except for the mail ballots dropped off in person today. Got this tip from a friend working for a major cable network. Big night for Obama in Oregon.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:28 am
At least the bitch will get slammed in Oregon..
May 20th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Harsh an. Glad you dems are coming together.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Will the Edwards’ endorsement of Obama affect the allocation of delegates in Florida? Clinton took 51% of the vote in Florida. Obama and Edwards received about 49%. Seems to me that the Florida delegates should be split 51 - 49.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:47 am
No surprises tonight. That should effectively end this race as the remaining primaries aren’t exactly game-changers. When have Montana or South Dakota ever mattered?
HOWEVER, the Clinton camp is reported to be extremely upbeat. Obama is getting angry and defensive?
What gives? The Clinton camp hints at a catastrophic revelation about Obama. Is the October Surprise going to be a June Surprise?
To even hint at such a thing is either extreme desperation or there really is something out there. If there isn’t anything out there, and Clinton is just bluffing, she’d really lose all her credibility within the party.
I think there’s something out there.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:54 am
Perhaps the Clinton camp seems upbeat because Clinton and McCulliff are the only two campers left.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:55 am
Margie you make me go LOL!!!
More inside info??? Who would be conducting an “exit” poll on mailed in ballots anyway??? The ballots are counted all day today.
Plus Survey USA’s poll of Oregon yesterday had Obama up only 9% on voters who had “already voted” which Survey USA predicted was 77% of the voting public.
LOL!!! Margie is the best one yet here with made-up info.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:58 am
ignatiusreilly.. Sure you sucker….
Obama had sex with John Mccain in the Senate chambers…f***ing losers…learn to lose graciously..you dems have no idea how to lose…learn some lessons from Al Gore. How gracefully he stepped aside so did Jimmy Carter and Kerry.. Ooops I forgot..cannot use Clinton and Grace in the same sentence.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:58 am
margie = 4 i know that for sure because an inside friend just hit my blackberry with an 80-20 obama win in oregon, should be on drudge soon…
May 20th, 2008 at 9:20 am
These data are real, though my friend at the network said to keep in mind that (1) exit poll number skew toward Obama more than the actual results; and (2) the data will need to be reweighted based on those dropping off ballots today. SurveyUSA’s poll was based on randomly contacting Oregonians and asking if they have mailed in their ballot or not. This self-response in the SUSA poll leads to skews, as some have not actually mailed their ballot, or may have but it will arrive late. The exit poll conducted by the networks is based on the actual lists of voters whose mail ballots were received as of yesterday. These data are collected based on a phone poll of respondents where the universe is those having turned in the polls. So the exit poll is for real, folks, and it looks good for Obama: Obama 69%, Clinton 31% just on those ballots already turned in.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Margie = four = who knows whatever other names were used in the past.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Obama 53-47
May 20th, 2008 at 10:06 am
What time EST do the Oregon Polls close?
Obama is supposed to claim a majority of pledged delegates tonight but he can’t really do that till Oregon closes and he will be in Iowa.
Is he going to start his rally at 11 Eastern?
May 20th, 2008 at 10:26 am
First peek at Oregon exits available based on ballots now turned in: Obama 67, Clinton 30, Edwards 4.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Michael B: Check your math
May 20th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Equals 101 due to rounding.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:52 am
EXCUSE ME! You are not using the latest PPP poll at all! Or the latest SUSA poll. Are you living under a freakin’ rock?????
SUSA: Obama 55 Hillary 42
PPP: Obama 58 Hillary 39
Wake up people! This is going to be a blowout.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Exit polls in Kentucky show a huge, unparalleled turnout for Obama.
First Wave: Obama 85%% Clinton 2% Edwards 13%
Ha ha ha ha ha. Someone had to do it. lol.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:55 am
BTW, LOL at Michael.
Yeah right Michael, no freaking exit poll would ever be that one-sided. There’s no freaking way he has a 37 point lead among early voters. No way in hell.
Now, I am an Obama fan, but I am part of the REALITY-BASED COMMUNITY.