Here is the thread for Kentucky exit polls and election results for the Kentucky primary. We will live-blog throughout the day on May 20th, 2008 for the Democrat primary so use this thread to start the dialog. Winners will be posted as soon as we can make the call.
Kentucky Exit Polls
(Primary Exit Polls and Results)
51 delegates will be divided by Clinton and Obama.
We expect Hillary Clinton to carry this state handily over Barack Obama by a similar margin as West Virginia in the earlier primary. She is leading the polls by 30 points (see below). Nevertheless, polling companies do not decide elections, people do so time for the vote!
On Sunday Hillary ironically attended a sermon on marital infidelity, at the same time that her husband was campaigning in the Beaver State. Read all about it.
The Hillary Clinton blogs are celebrating her huge crowds while Barack Obama one-ups her in Oregon.
Obama is already blaming his loss on FoxNews for fomenting an email campaign about his religious beliefs. The “fair and balanced” network is a well that is always worth drawing water from if you are a Democrat.
As always, we will be able to make the call before any of the major news sources.
Here are the polls on election eve:
Kentucky Polls
All of the latest pre-election polls are here, a sampling of which is below. Ignore Zogby.
American Research Group (May 14-15):
Hillary Clinton - 65%
Barack Obama - 29%Research 2000 (May 7-9):
Hillary Clinton - 58%
Barack Obama - 31%Survey USA (May 3-5):
Hillary Clinton - 62%
Barack Obama - 28%
May 20th, 2008 Live-blogging Updates:
Kentucky exit poll data (Democrat):
(Updated throughout the day)
Update 9.30am PST - Polls close at 6pm local time. Perfect weather should help drive up turnout which was already expected to be high. Currently sunny, 70 degrees and low humidity.
Update 10am PST - While we are waiting, Politico has an excellent story on the 5 things to watch for in the Kentucky primary. It is especially interesting to see that John Edwards may get 6% of the vote. He clearly still has a following among economic liberals.
Update 10.30am PST - Make your Kentucky predictions on one of the better lefty blogs.
FYI, as if it were not obvious, pay no attention to commenters breathlessly bringing news. It is a common tactic by the campaigns and willing accomplices to spread false information on election threads.
Update 11:23 PST - The Board of Elections is reporting a high turnout in Northern Kentucky, making up for the slow start due to rainy weather this morning.
There also seems to be a rumor that the Boards of Elections are trying to quash, that you can’t vote in the General if you don’t vote in the Primary. Sounds like some overzealous GOTV voluteers….
Update 6:20pm EST - 1% of polls in; Clinton 3,903 (64%), Obama 1,823 (31%)
- 45% say that John Edwards endorsement was important to them. 51% said it wasn’t important
- 73% women voted for Clinton
- 92% that valued experience voted for Clinton
- In November election between McCain and Obama: 15% would stay home
Update 7:00pm EST: Kentucky polls are closed. Kentucky is called for Hillary Clinton.
Exit polling:
- 65% of regular church goers vote for HRC
- 47% looking for ‘change’ candidate
- 62% believe HRC can beat McCain
- 35% believe BHO can beat McCain
Update 8:15pm (ET): 62% of polls in; Clinton 273,162 (64%), Obama 136,867 (31%)
Clinton is speaking at Kentucky victory rally. She is spending the first few minutes honoring Senator Teddy Kennedy. Reports are that Obama is ‘rolling back’ his planned claim to the nomination tonight in Iowa.
Update 11:00pm (ET): Final results: 65% Clinton, 30% Obama
Published exit poll data. (lat2
Kentucky Primary Results (Democrats):
Update 5:30pm PST - Hillary Clinton wins the Kentucky primary.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:41 am
He bowls like a girl.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
zogby actually had IN and NC right on, better than anyone else. That doesn’t say anything about this round, but FYI.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Zogby had Obama actually winning Indiana by 2, the only polling outfit predicting Obama the winner so that’s a big big miss. Insider Advantage had it about right. Zogby was great on NC but has an overall poor record the last two election cycles. There is a Democrat bias apparent in his general election polls and his support for Obama is difficult to overlook.
May 20th, 2008 at 4:28 am
Zogby might had had NC right but that is about the only poll they have had right. Zogby has been horrendous this primary season. Zogby had Obama winning CA by 13 points but Obama lost by 10 points to Hillary. Survey USA was the only poll that predicted Hillary winning and not only that but got the margin correct at 10%.
I’m not sure which Zogby runs the polling agency, Jim or John but one of them is a super delegate for Obama. That is where you bias comes from.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:51 am
Not only Zogby but all the pollsters were not accurate this season and I believe that it is primarily due to three reasons.
1. More and more people dont have land lines for their telephone and cell phones users cannot be polled accurately.
2. In view of the harsh economic times, many folks including poor and students are opting out of phone usage.
3. Last but not the least, last minute fluctuations are missed. For example, the gas tax pandering in my opinion reminded voters that Hillary would do anything to win. Even though Obama did not have a good solution either, it was enough to remind some fence sitters about Hillary. Dont know how you can capture that effect accurately.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Obama is doing much better than expected in western Kentucky based on preliminary data from the exit polls (I just spoke w/ a friend working for a news network with access, though he warned me not to interpret too much with the early data). Western KY should be a Clinton stronghold, but it is looking pretty good for Obama as of this morning. Illinois borders this part of Kentucky, so these voters know Obama quite well. Based on the early exits, Paducah is going 36% Clinton-61% Obama at this point! Could be in for a surprise tonight in Kentucky, where Obama only loses by a few % points!
May 20th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Margie - 36 - 61 is hardly good from Obama’s people’s perspective ? Definitely better than 60 - 20..but Obama needs to do really good like 60 - 40 to come even close…
May 20th, 2008 at 8:25 am
To an: Clinton has 36%, and Obama has 61% in Paducah based on the morning exit data. That is huge for Obama and is like what you are suggesting. I think you read the results backwards.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Margie,
I have actually been to Paducah. It is a really pretty town and have many friends who live there. I would think Murray state should be Obama country…I was very suprized to see so many open minded people in Paducah…
May 20th, 2008 at 8:38 am
I used to live close to Paducah, no way that holds up. Southern Illinois actually favored Hillary during the Illinois primary, so I expect W. KY will do the same. I’m just waiting for four to show up and claim his friend has inside info that Obama is leading in Lexington.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:38 am
I expect this race to be similar to West Virginia. Some hope for Obama during the day but a 25-30 point victory by Clinton.
On the other hand, Obama wins Oregon by about 15 points. Not much drama today.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Just checked in to see how many people claim to have inside info. I’m disappointed it’s only one. Margie: new name, same old stuff.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Marge=Four?
May 20th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Hey Brian,
I have lived in KY for over 15 years and as a salesperson have travelled all over the state. I tell you, I will agree that probably 20% of whites will never vote for Obama due to race and bias. However, that is true for Hillary too, I think at least 20 % of males will not vote for Hillary because of gender bias and 45% of the country will never vote for the democrats because of party bias..
bottomline, I have dealt with the folks out here in Ky and they are nice…I have a real problem with the media and some politicians using race both ways, all parties to divide us. These suckers, all of them should be condemned.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Wow huge news out of Kentucky. The turnout in Clinton strongholds seems to be drying up. The theory is that a lot people who weren’t Hillary diehards but were planning on voting for her as the “anti-Obama” have decided to stay home based on the perception that the race is over. Meanwhile, turnout has been incredible in the Louiville area and some are starting to think Obama could actually be within 10 points of Hillary when it’s all over.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:48 am
John H = Margie = Four.
While we’re making stuff up, word around Kentucky is that the video of Michelle Obama calling out “whitey” is coming out soon, making Barack unelectable. This has everyone voting for Hillary. Unanimously. 100% to 0%
May 20th, 2008 at 10:17 am
If I were making it up, why wouldn’t I put Obama AHEAD instead of losing by 10 points?
Because then it would be unbelievable? Well, you don’t believe me anyway so there goes that theory.
Guaranteed Obama will keep the margin under 20 in KY, which is certainly not a triumph, but considering that some polls have him down by 40 in a state that plays against all of his core demographics, it is not a bad showing at all.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:38 am
To Jon H:
OK since you claim “not to be making things up” where is your link to back your claim that:
“The turnout in Clinton strongholds seems to be drying up. The theory is that a lot people who weren’t Hillary diehards but were planning on voting for her as the “anti-Obamaâ€? have decided to stay home based on the perception that the race is over.”
So where is your proof … a link???
May 20th, 2008 at 10:47 am
There is no link, Libby. You heard it here first.
I have a friend working for each campaign in Kentucky and that is an aggregate of reports I am getting from them. Obama’s guy is psyched about the turnout in Louisville and Clinton’s guy is reporting much smaller than expected turnouts in some of the rural precincts that are expected to go 70% or more for Clinton.
That being said, it doesn’t matter much now anyway, does it? We need someone exit polling superdelegates.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:06 am
John H, you’re so silly.
No one in the state of Kentucky voted for Obama. They think he’s unelectable by unanimous decision.
Stop making stuff up that’s so unbelievable.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:08 am
don’t feed the trolls….
May 20th, 2008 at 11:20 am
only 21 comments no one cares Hillary no one cares take it like a man dear you have lost equal rights have been handed down you have lost.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:23 am
ignatiusreilly you are claiming that John H. is making up stuff, but offer no proof either of this alleged video of Michelle Obama calling out “whitey.” When and where did she say this? Where’s the evidence????
And I HIGHLY doubt the results from KY will be Obama - 0% and Clinton - 100%.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:28 am
To DforO:
I care. That’s why I’m voting for McCain if Obama is the nominee. How many Hilllary supporters voting for McCain??? I got my hand up!
It’s comments like yours that are turning off many Hillary supporters and into voting for McCain.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:28 am
To Stephen:
I think you miss the concept of “sarcasm.”