Here is your thread for North Carolina exit polls and election results for the North Carolina primary. We will live-blog throughout the day on May 6th, 2008 for the Democrat primary so use this thread to start the dialog. Winners will be posted as soon as we can make the call.
North Carolina Exit Polls
(Primary Exit Polls and Results)
North Carolina watched very closely. Recent polls show that Hillary tightened the gap but that Obama has stabilized his lead. Expect Obama to win by high single-digits. However, if Hillary Clinton manages an upset win in the state, all bets are off on the Democrat nomination once thought a foregone conclusion for Barack Obama.
Expect the black vote in the Democrat primary to be 1/3 of the vote.
134 delegates are at stake in the state.
Experts believe that Barack Obama wins North Carolina so this becomes a game of expectations. Anything more than a 10 point win by Obama will put the wind back at his back. If Hillary holds the margin to low single-digits, or manages to do the impossible and actually win the state, Obama’s luster will continue to tarnish.
As always, we will give you the data and make the call before any of the major news sources.
Here are the polls on election eve:
North Carolina Polls
Latest pre-election polls are here.
Zogby (May 3-4):
Hillary Clinton 40%
Barack Obama 48%Rasmussen (May 1):
Hillary Clinton 40%
Barack Obama 49%Insider Advantage (May 4):
Hillary Clinton 45%
Barack Obama 48%Research 2000 (Apr. 29-30):
Hillary Clinton 44%
Barack Obama 51%Survey USA (Apr. 26-28):
Hillary Clinton 44%
Barack Obama 49%
May 6th, 2008 Live-blogging Updates:
North Carolina exit poll data (Democrat):
(Updated throughout the day)
Update 11am EST - The final poll of polls has Obama +8.0. The new RightPundits prediction model, which accounts for polling bias, suggests that Obama will achieve his double-digit win in North Carolina. Expect an Obama win of 10-18 points. So you can go home now? Of course not!
Update 1pm EST - It appears that Hillary is getting smashed. Party insiders are working damage control now. Please remember that early exit poll data is faulty and unreliable for a variety of reasons, including technical aspects of polling technique as well as demographic voting patterns.
Update 2pm EST - Mike Ash, who is the of the Director of the Durham County Board of Elections reports very high turnout, breaking records by 11:30 am. This is important because this is a bellwether of AA vote. So, it does appear that Obama could have a real good day. More data here.
Update 3pm EST - Barack Obama may not have as easy a skate in North Carolina as has been predicted. It is being reported that there has been a lower than expected turn-out in North Carolina. Conventional thought has been that a high turnout there would favor Obama. A low turnout probably indicates election fatigue and/or that Obama could be losing momentum.
On the other hand, there are still reports of record turnout in some areas. Durham is reported to be having a record turnout. Some are making an early call for Obama in North Carolina.
While the media seems to be ready to make an early call for Obama, there are reports of mixed results in terms of turnout. I think its way too early to call.
Update 4.30pm. Data confirms 1/3 black turnout as forecasted. Only 1/7 under the age of 30. 1/4 over 60 years old. Economy highest concern. Only 20% Iraq. Healthcare even less important. It’s the economy, stupid. Data looking better for Hillary. But Beth, really, it is over.
Update 9pm EST - Obama has gotten a two-digit win in North Carolina. Hillary didn’t pull off the coup she had hoped for. The ‘game changer’ didn’t happen. What does that mean for Hillary and her campaign?
Update 10:45pm EST - Bill Clinton worked every inch of North Carolina for Hillary. What does it say about him, her campaign, the Clinton power machine, that he wasn’t able to get North Carolina for Hillary?
Continue this evening’s primary results discussion.
Published exit poll data.
North Carolina Primary Results (Democrats):
Update 7:05pm EST - Right Pundits declares Barack Obama the winner of the North Carolina primary. Call made at 7:05pm EST. Sorry so late this time!
May 5th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Here’s my prediction, we all argue and snipe as we desperately search for exit numbers. Then, when the actual results come out we realize we were dumb for caring about exit numbers.
May 5th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
That’s why it is so fun. The libs will come and predict outrageous crap, we’ll make fun of them and all is good.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
I got it right in pennsylvania, Obama wins by 12+ due to heavy amount of early voting. Around 450K have been casted already.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
As a North Carolinian, I think this race will be a 5-8 pt win for Obama, which IMO is effectively a loss for him, in fact anything less than 15% is a loss for him and raises questions about the damage Wright has caused him, as the black vote will go to him regardless as they are voting on color over issues anyways.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
I predict Obama 52-48…narrowly, loses votes cast tomorrow, but manages a victory thanks to early voting.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
For the record, I got PA right. So did a lot of us. I predict NC is a 5% win for Obama. I predict a 10% win in IN for Clinton.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Why I see trouble in NC for Obama.
Early Voting looks real strong for him, but its actually quite weak, HERES WHY:
1. According to SUSA he is leading 57-41 in early voting. 25% of voters decided to vote early, (390,000)Meaning total turnout will be 1.55 million, which is very strong turnout.
2. 40% of early voters are black. obama has a great early voting machine. BUT even with 40% black, he is only up 57-41, He always wins black voters 9 to 1. which means that he is losing non-black voters to HRC by 30 points. THRITY POINTS! thats huge. In fact if that holds Obama needs over 32% of the final electorate to be black for him to win NC. Most polls show it expected to be between 31-35.
3. Go back and look at Texas early voting. The numbers are downright starling in how similar they are. EVERYONE was saying that Obama would win in texas because of he strong show in early voting:
26% of Texans voted early
25% in north Carolina voted early (SUSA projection)
Obama won early Texas voting 58-41
Obama won early Carloina voting 57-41
Obama lost Texas by 4 points
Obama —- North Carolina by ? points
I think a shocker is possible. if obama actaully ends of losing non-blacks 65-35 (the amount he has lost them by in early voting) Then the race will be virtual tie.
May 5th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
^That is a very interesting. It is also possible however that Obama is not doing quite as well with AA’s as he has in the past in NC… some polls show Clinton getting close to 20% of the AA vote in NC…so that my be a bit of a shift.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:42 am
Yeah it might be that he isnt doing as well with African Americans. But I feel like there are always polls showing HRC doing a little better amongst AA and in the end she always seems to lose 9 to 1.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:50 am
based on nothing but whim and caprice i’m going with obama by 12 in NC
May 6th, 2008 at 4:03 am
Dave can you provide a link to those SUSA numbers please?
May 6th, 2008 at 4:15 am
My prediction is Obama by 7 points.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:01 am
I am in NC (M, 30) and I voted early for Obama, there was a huge turnout there for him. I work with a lot of republicans and they are jumping at the chance to go vote against HRC today.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:39 am
There’s something wrong with the picture of part of the population wishing the downfall of another part or an individual. Its this kind of thinking that gets the whole nation into trouble. We have to get away from thinking about ourselves and the “me first” attitude and start thinking about “we together”. I wish all the candidates good luck.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:51 am
Katie: I think people feel this way about voting against HRC because the Clinton’s have gotten away with so much for so long that they DO NOT want to see her win. These are protest votes in a sense. The Clinton sense of entitlement is blatantly obvious and that does not set well with most–especially the insiders who are intimately familiar with ther modus-operendi.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:52 am
That’s interesting. I thought Republicans were not allowed to crossover and vote Democrat in the NC primary.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:59 am
Obama’s going to get embarrassed yet again today. NOrth Carolina is going to be a nail biter. Wright has sunk this loser-boat.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:01 am
Hey Bryan, how about a scoreboard on the margin of the page where all the prognosticators can go on the record with their predictions, and we can keep a running tally of punditaccuracy. Whoever is leading in cumulative accuracy at any given moment gets to assert his or her opinions without being challenged (de facto authority), until overtaken on the leader board
May 6th, 2008 at 6:02 am
In North Carolina, unaffiliated voters are permitted to vote in the Democratic primary.
However, if an unaffiliated voter chooses to vote in the Democratic primary, he or she cannot vote in a Republican runoff (or second primary). Similarly, an unaffiliated voter who votes in a Republican primary cannot vote in a Democratic runoff.
Here’s the link:
http://www.ncdp.org/2008+Democratic+Primary+North+Carolina
May 6th, 2008 at 6:04 am
Follow up, the guys that were going to vote are registered independents, they just always vote Republican.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:10 am
There are some interesting observations being posted in this thread. I will add mine. First, R’s cannot crossover. Independents, however can vote in the Dem Primary and there are quite a few np’s in NC (1.2m).
Clearly, Obama has lost the momentum in this campaign although the dems method of allocating delegates in a multi-proportional way makes it almost impossible for him to lose the lead to HRC. In NC, I am going to predict a 7 point victory for Obama since Mason-Dixon’s last poll had that result. I have been following polling firms for about 10 years and they are the best, imo.
The results should have been similiar to VA and SC with Obama winning by 20+ given his huge advantage with the demographics of NC. Thanks for Reverend Wright, Obama has lost significant caucasion support and in the ultimate irony has even lost a little support from the AA community as a result of throwing Wright under the bus. It may only be a 5 to 7 reduction of support with AA’s but that makes a difference in NC.
Throw out the Zogby polls. They are garbage.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:14 am
Why is Zogby such a bad pollster?
May 6th, 2008 at 6:16 am
Obama’s support has eroded deep and wide. This ain’t no January primary like South Carolina, this is real life and Wright has destroyed any shred of support he may ahve ever had. I pity people who support Obama. Truly a cult.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:17 am
I was going to ask the same, why is Zogby bad?
May 6th, 2008 at 6:18 am
Hehe I would love to read later from the people that said Obama is going to lose in NC, they are making a fool of themselves…