The Pennsylvania Exit Poll thread (below) is now closed. All discussions may continue here.
The huge success of the thread was slowing down the system and making it very hard for folks to scroll through. So comment away on this shorter thread. ENJOY!
Well, the polls have closed now, even in Philadelphia, and Hillary took it by my predicted 10%. I think it is the first time this election season that I have been correct!
Hillary Clinton 1,258,245 54.69% 66 Delegates
Barack Obama 1,042,297 45.31% 57 Delegates
McCain, of course won as well.
Part of the problem here is that even though Hillary won, the Dems do not have a winner-take-all system (which actually, I like the fairness of the Dem system – now if they just get rid of those super delegates…), so even with the win, she only picked up a 9 delegate lead over Obama in PA, which does not get her very far in the overall delegate count.
The Delegate totals are:
Pledged Delegates 1479 – 1328 Obama + 151 Popular Vote 49.2 – 47.5 Obama +1.7
Popular Vote (w/FL) 48.3 – 47.6 Obama +0.7
LA Times/bloomberg has Obama up by 5% in Indiana, SurveyUSA has Clinton by 16%.
Both polls were taken 4/10-4/14 and 4/11-4/13 respectively.
It will be interesting to see how these numbers move after Pennsylvania.
Anyway, our Pennsylvania post below has so many comments that the system is bogged down when you want to post something.
***So, Use this Post to continue the thread, or talk about what you want!***
April 23rd, 2008 at 3:51 am
Good recap MBT. It turns out that the victory is a hollow one.
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:05 am
MDeFl – yup – she put a good face on it – and sucked up all the prime time with her long-winded speech (why do the Clinton’s think that we all want to hear their droning?).
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:42 am
Look. This isn’t the Rumble in the Jungle. It’s not World War II. It’s not even Tom & Jerry. It’s more like Wrestlemania. A little bit of fireworks and a laser display. But it is really just make-believe. A show. A show that happens every few years. Lots of noise and lots of action. But fundamentally still just a show. Nobody gets hurt. Yes, I am talking about the US Presidential election. http://angryafrican.net/2008/04/22/storm-in-a-teacup/
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:54 am
Maybe not so hollow. Once again, she takes the popular vote lead (if you figure in FL and MI) and more importantly her most powerful argument is that she is the candidate that can win those blue collar workers and states like PA, OH, FL, MI. When the SDs sit down and try to figure this all out, electibility is going to be their primary focus.
There is no rule that says that the person with the delegate lead should get the SD votes as well. I know all of you Obamaiacs like to talk about fairness, blah blah, but this isn’t about fairness, its politics, its about winning. I just want to remind all the Obama heads out there, the reason the SD system was put in the first place was to prevent candidates like McGovern (or Obama) from getting the nomination. The activist base has too much power in the Democrat party, and it has often cost them elections (McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry). Obama is cut from the class as these other guys, except that he is a better speaker. However, Obama has a delegate lead because the whack-job base was able to subvert the caucus system (is there a dumber way to select a candidate?) and pad a lot of votes for Obama. My guess is that if there were no caucuses and the states had primaries instead, Hillary would have the delegate lead too.
If you go to the hedgehog report, they have a nice Electoral College counter for Obama and Hillary versus McCain with all the latest polls averaged in. McCain beats Obama 290-248, a pretty significant win. Hillary beats McCain 278-260. That is the kind of information that has got to have those SDs sweating.
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:43 am
This is going to Denver! I love it!
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:46 am
Does anyone know how to close the PA comment thread? I tried to figure it out but could not.
Now, if only McCain would get back from his undercover mission for Halliburton to steal the world’s oil supplies, we could straighten this out.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:10 am
What do you guys think about her argument that she can win the big states that matter? I am specifically only talking about Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida because Texas, California, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts are basically not in play. So Florida will be slightly competitive only if Clinton is the nominee (but will still lean McCain), but won’t PA and OH will be about the economy and therefore Obama will be able to compete despite not winning in the primary.
Very few people are talking about the fact that Hillary and Barack are both winning two types of votes that are uncharted territory for a Dem in the general election. Hillary is winning in white rural areas of Blue states that haven’t voted for a Dem in ages, and Obama is winning in whole states that haven’t gone Dem in ages. Either way they both might lose these areas, or they may not.
The point I am making is that Obama seems to do better in Dem strongholds of urban areas and if we look at 2000 and 2004, turnout in these areas is key, soooo, my twisted logic says he might have a better shot in November.
However, as long as we continue to relive Night of the Living Dead with the Clinton Zombie that just won’t die, I don’t think anyone can predict how these two would fair in November. Therefore, supers just might go with Obama because they would destroy the party if there was a convention fight.
Last rambling thought…. Not one of the Hillary or Obama supporters that are claiming to rather vote for McCain if their choice isn’t on the ballot is telling the truth. Being an “Obamahead” myself, I would rather abstain or vote for Bob Barr. Same for the super conservative right-wingers that claimed they would rather vote for Hillary….let’s see who Ann C. votes for!
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:10 am
Um – MDeFl – I don’t kow how to do it either. Let me try.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:28 am
HA! I did it! I closed the comments on the PA Primary post.
Eat Cake McCain! I am the Blogging expert now!
Actually, I think it is the first time I was able to figure anything out….
Everyone can continue the discussions here.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:33 am
North Carolina primaries are open. All republicans should vote hiilary, and keep this emss going. think about yesterday in PA 591,000 voted for mccain for basically no reason. HELL 91,000 voted for Huck. if 200,000 Republcans vote for hillary it can sway the result by 12 points.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:34 am
Actually, there is a more recent SUSA poll that shows Obama up by 5 points.
Obama is going to win Indiana but it is going to be very close. His spreadsheet has been accurate this whole cycle. They have him winning by 7 but I think it will be closer to 3 or 4.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:48 am
Hopeful08 – thanks for the update! I was suspicious of the +16% for Hillary. A lot has happened in the last week – which is an eternity in political matters…
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:48 am
Young Dem,
I would not get over optimistic because their are still many more R’s in the ex-burbs than D’s.
Also, check out the primary vote totals in 1988 and you will notice the same difference between the D’s and R’s in that cycle. We know how that ended. Also, McCain is a moderate and if the Dem fight drags into Denver, then he will be the huge winner.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:50 am
Dave and MDeFl – the longer this goes, the more $$ are wasted in the primary and will be unavailable in the general for the Dems. Yes, there are new contribution amounts allowed by Federal law, but… most people have limited budgets and can’t just keep coughing up money.
McCain has been able to pretty much take the high road this whole time.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:16 am
I think Obama will be strong in Indiana. By association, PA was somewhat of a “home” state for Hillary, the same is true for Indy and Obama with it’s northern “Chicago” population.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:49 am
The remaining primaries are now irrelevant, so long as Hillary can win a few of them. Hillary knew she couldn’t catch up in delegates, so her last remaining argument was, Obama can’t win the states that matter. Even if Obama wins Indy, NC, etc., her argument won’t change.
For the first time in months, I’m beginning to think HC is going to be the nominee. Obama did very poorly considering money spent and frontrunner status.
Obama has lost 4 of 5 now in popular vote, and is gettting weaker and weaker.
Of course, if HC is the nominee, there will be blood.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:51 am
Republicans must be dancing in the streets. McCain hasn’t been this happier to see someone else win since Huckabee trounced Romney.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:57 am
Igna-even so, Obama needs votes and he will be getting them in upcoming primaries. That will give him the popular vote as well as the delegate vote. It can’t hurt.
I’m curious to see if BO and HC will refrain from the negativity since it was said to be a factor yesterday. *slap* silly me, what was I thinking? Clearly, the fangs are being sharpened…Besides, that was an exit poll stat and we all know they are worthless.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:06 am
Agreed, drifter. And I sure feel silly for seeking exit poll data all day yesterday only to see how wrong they were when the actual results came out.
I also love how Dem pundits on CNN are claiming the party will unite come November. Clinton’s centrist white women will vote with McCain. Obama’s young voters won’t vote. Either way…disaster for Dems.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:20 am
Yes, in the end, it’s very likely to all become mute. But for now, I’m enjoying the ride and forgive me, but I just can’t help but be entertained by the HC/BO battle. Between these two, I’m for Obama. One simple reason, I detest the Clintons.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:42 am
After thinking about it, I somewhat agree that the Dems would vote for either HC or BO come the fall rather than JM. The Dems may come together after all (doesn’t mean they will win). These days it’s become a battle of sides and the age old battle of Dem versus Rep will reign. Do people REALLY vote for candidate’s positions or do they vote because of “who’s side they are on”? One has to wonder just how much “people” (in general) care or even understand the issues anymore? *maybe I have too much time on my hands today
* I sure like this place.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:57 am
[...] After the Pennsylvania Primary the Democratic delegate count totals are (via Right Pundit): [...]
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:08 am
I think Indiana has many (not all) of the same demographics as Ohio and PA.
I take credit for my expert getting it right.
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:19 am
Drifter – we’re glad you “like this place!” Come back often! I agree with you on voting the party line – but only about 30% do so – although that number may be creeping upward. This election has thrown out all conventional wisdom
Tina – I’m your expert? I got it right (Hillary by 9-10%)!
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:29 am
I think Obama +5 is from another polling agency. SurveyUSA has Clinton +16 according to their site. Of course, they’ve been wrong in the past, and after PA, that poll is probably not relevant.