The Pennsylvania Democratic Primary has the feel of the Super Bowl this year. Of course, I don’t like the 2 teams involved so I hope they bloody one another up nicely, thank you very much. The most recent RCP poll average has Hillary Clinton ahead by 5.1%. Folks, that won’t get it done. As we have stated before at Rightpundits, it is our view that Hillary must win by at least 15% in order to make a compelling case to the super delegates. That is straight from my source in the Philadelphia Democratic party. Sure, Ed Rendell is telling every press outlet that he can find that anything north of 6% is a substantial victory.
Privately, Rendell knows better but he has an incredible amount of loyalty to the Clinton’s as a result of the Clinton administration awarding Philadelphia tax-advantaged enterprise zones when he was Mayor of Philadelphia. My source indicates that Hillary, according to their internal polls, has a 7 to 9 point lead but that is up from 5 to 7 just last week. It seems that the cumulative effects of the recent hits that Obama has been receiving are finally starting to take a toll on his campaign. Now, if only Hillary hadn’t pretended to be Rambo, she might have a shot at that 15-point victory.
Feel free to enter your predictions for the upcoming Pennsylvania Democratic Party. The winner will receive the knowledge that their punditry is superior to all others. What other award is necessary? The deadline will be Tuesday at 12 pm est. My prediction is as follows:
Clinton - 54.2%
Obama - 45.8%
Then she will most certainly lose North Carolina by a substantial margin and the calls for her to withdrawal from the race will intensify.
April 20th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Love your photoshop!!!
April 20th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
that looks like sanjaya from last year’s american idol
April 20th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
[...] in Clinton’s favor, randomly selected, are found HERE and HERE and HERE and [...]
April 20th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Clinton by 6, she loses NC, and then we start hearing about how Indiana is the “super bowl” event.
April 20th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Thanks for the Clinton internals, but does anyone know what the obama intervals are?
April 20th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
four,
Sorry, I don’t have any contacts high up enough in his campaign that would have access to that type of information. They must think they can at least keep it close since he is spending a ton of $ here. The amount of commercials he is running in southeastern PA versus Hillary is unreal. I estimate it is at least 5 to 1.
Bob,
I honestly feel that North Carolina will be BO’s knock out blow. He will win by 15 or so. The race really is over and HRC has only herself to blame.
For those Hillary supporters who feel disaffected, I invite you to consider John McCain for President. I think you will find that you may have quite a bit in common - sensible immigration and similiar global warming positions just to name a couple.
April 20th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
MDefl says: “For those Hillary supporters who feel disaffected, I invite you to consider John McCain for President”
The problem is that Hilary supporters are against the war and want out of Iraq. McCain argues passionately that ONE YEAR FROM NOW, SIX YEARS AFTER WE INVADED IRAQ, it will *still* be too soon to begin a gradual withdrawal (April 2009 is when Obama and Hilary have promised to begin their drawdown). A draw-down that would take well over a year to complete. He says that would be “disastrous”.
In other words, McCain argues that WE ARE STUCK THERE. If McCain is correct, then he should retire from public life, since he was one of the loudest salesmen for the illegal invasion of Iraq.
McCain quibbles about unfair “misquoting” of his “stay for 100 years” comment. He says he supports 100 years only if the Iraqi people stop shooting at our troops. So then what are his plans in case they keep shooting at our troops, as they have been doing for five years? Will he cut and run? If so, after how long?
Bah! McCain offers aimless drift in continuing a foreign policy that has weakened America and strengthened her enemies. It is a national disgrace that McCain could be a candidate for President after his disastrous record.
On the bright side, at least the Republicans did not persist in nominating another chickenhawk for President. Ever check out what Giuliani and Romney were up to when they faced military duty in Viet Nam? Neither of those draft dodgers have the moral authority to command soldiers in combat, and, once their records became better known, they would have been slaughtered against ANY Democrat, even a yellow dog.
April 20th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Details on his disasterous record please! C’mon bloggy, your better than just repeating DNC fed talking points!
April 20th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
His internals have him within 5. They are hoping for a knockout blow with the massive amounts of high schoolers and blacks that they registered back in March.
They have registered almost 50K blacks in Philly alone.
April 20th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Anon… if I remember correctly… you are the same one who said he was going to win rhode island and the popular vote in Texas… I don’t think you can be trusted.
He he gets her within five, it’s over… but ALL of the polls have her winning by at least 7-10 points- which match her internals.
I really would like to know what the Obama campaign internals are cause they haven’t let up.
April 20th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
There is only one certainty now. Obama is toast in the general election. He had the momentum and GLOW before, but it’s gone now. Now, he’s the most liberal candidate to EVER be seriously considered for the presidency. Now, he’s got serious personal issues. Now, he’s got the Republican death squads just chomping at the bit to get at him.
April 21st, 2008 at 3:59 am
Bloggy - what did Bill Clinton do during the Vietnam War? Wow - I think you had a lucid sentence or two in there! You must be shaving by now…
Obama, for some reason keeps picking up superdelegates and voter support. I wonder if it points to a general dissatisfaction with Hillary that Dems dared not to express until they had an alternative?
April 21st, 2008 at 5:01 am
MBT- I think the original Bloggy has been co-opted by someone else. His arguments have improved slightly over the past few months, although he’s still spewing DNC/Daily Kos talking points . . . blah blah blah 100 years, blah blah blah Bush is the worst president ever.
April 21st, 2008 at 5:02 am
MBT
Do you guys have any idea what the Obama campaign internal numbers are?
A lot of people are saying that these new polls that have Clinton up anywhere between 6-10 points are under polling Obama’s support because of newly registered voters.
There is now way in hell he is going to win PA or the nomination at this point (I know that sounds foolish but if he loses PA by more than 5 the supers aren’t going to move, again- and Clinton will continue to destroy him. The good news? The GOP will rip Clinton a new a**hole before they let the Clintons back in the whitehouse.)
BUT, a lot of people think this race is closer then these new polls are predicting and Obama has been under polled this whole process.
If anyone has a clue what their internal numbers are I would like to know.
April 21st, 2008 at 5:29 am
four,
Again, I have no contact with significant members of Obama’s PA team except for the canned emails that I receive 2x a day. However, my source, just this morning, admitted that their is some angst due to the factors that you mentioned. Also, tomorrow’s weather is going to be terrific, at least in southeast PA.
Again, my source thinks that Hillary is finished unless she wins by 15 or 20. He does not believe that there is any chance of that happening. Ed Rendell is basically being loyal to the Clintons. He feels as though he owes them for their help in the 90’s.
Hillary will win PA but that won’t change the end result.
April 21st, 2008 at 6:02 am
MDefl,
Your source probably has a good reason to be expressing concern.
Most of these pollsters, even within the campaign, are using old models and they do not reflect record turnout, newly registered voters etc.
There is only one polling firm that has gotten every single race right this process and they have Obama ahead with their new poll this morning, which, by the way, has a larger sample size then any other poll that has been done. This race can go either way. Clinton WILL NOT have more than a 5 point win that I am now sure of.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:28 am
The other more accurate pollster of the season came out with their new PA poll. They have Clinton ahead by six (Survey USA) … and claim Obama is gaining on her (They had her ahead by 14 in their last poll.) Do you still stand by your prediction MDefl?
Obama has been going around PA this morning say things are “very close”… Their numbers must be telling them something…. Bill and Hill can barely fill a room.
Democrats are so full of their silly little scandals to a video has surfaced of Gov. Rendell public praising, oh no…. Farrakahn!
April 21st, 2008 at 8:06 am
I don’t think the Clinton camp is doing so well… They just “leaked” their internal numbers (drudgereport.com) claiming that they have an 11 point lead in PA, which is highly unlikely. They also just released a new terror AD…. My questions is this: If you were heading towards a big victory why would you spoil the surprise by leaking your internal poll numbers? It makes no sense. Also, if you had that kind of lead, and you’re as broke as she is, why would you release a new AD that almost no one is going to see between today and tomorrow? I think they are playing mind games, this is very strange.
I don’t think they are doing as well as they had hoped.
Why do you think?
Gosh this is a quiet blog!
April 21st, 2008 at 8:13 am
What would be in it for Hillary to release her internal numbers?
Also, you guys said that her internals had her at 7 to 9 points.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:13 am
four,
If you notice, I am not predicting an 11 point HRC win. My source claims the accurate number is a 7 to 9 point advantage. The Philly burbs are a huge Rendell stronghold and that will really help Hillary. Plus, he did hurt himself with the small cities like Johnstown, Allentown, etc.. with his bitter talk although the impact will not be huge.
BO’s strategy is sound. He is forcing HRC to spend more than she can really afford in PA. Even if she received a 10+ win, the demographics and her funding issue for NC do not bode well for her.
I stand by my prediction but like all predictions, I certainly could be wrong. What is your offical prediction?
April 21st, 2008 at 8:16 am
four,
Your comment, “the race could go either way” is wishful thinking.
Rendell carries the SE burbs for HRC and the rest of the state minus Pittsburgh is Alabama without the minority population. He would have to win Philly 85/15 to have a chance at winning the state overall. Nutter and the rest of the machine support HRC so while he should win Philly, the % will probably be 60/40.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:29 am
I know it seems like wishful thinking, but I don’t care what happens. So I am only saying that because PPP has not been wrong once.. they are only ones who poll these things correctly.
There is Rendell but there is also Casey.
It may not go either way… but there will be no 11 point victory, she’s spinning the media.
I predict a 3-4 point victory for Clinton.
I would love to get the Obama internals. They seem pretty freaking calm.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:44 am
Something weird is going on: Howard Wolfson denied the leak of their internal numbers, suggesting that someone else is trying to “raise expectations”
April 21st, 2008 at 8:46 am
Is 7 to 9 enough to keep her in the race? A large number of polls came out today, and they seem to put it in that range.
Again (like this entire race), I think that result is too vague to force Hillary to drop out, and it’s too little to give her much of a chance.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:49 am
Anything below 10 she is out.