Here is your thread for Pennsylvania exit polls and election results for the Pennsylvania election. We will live-blog throughout the day on November 4, 2008 for the general election so use this thread to start the dialog. Winners will be posted as soon as we can make the call.

Note that the 2010 Democrat primary exit polls for Pennsylvania are here.

Pennsylvania is Hillary Clinton’s last stand. She will win in the country while Barack Obama wins the cities, so the fight we are watching is for the suburbs. We will know how Obama’s comments about bitter towns will influence the voting, and whether Hillary Clinton has a strong base of support from any demographic group.

188 delegates are at stake in the state. Hillary has been in the state non-stop since before the last primary.

Study this fascinating demographic analysis while we wait for the data. A 12 delegate gain for Hillary will not be a successful result.

Experts believe that Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania so this becomes a game of expectations. The expectation set by the media and the campaigns is that she needs to win by 10+ points to maintain her viability as a candidate. If she wins by less, this long primary battle will finally come to an end whether or not she technically stays in the race.

As always, we will give you the data and make the call before any of the major news sources.

Here are the polls on election eve:

Pennsylvania Polls

Latest pre-election polls are here.

Rasmussen (Apr. 20)
Hillary Clinton 49%
Barack Obama 44%

Zogby (Apr. 19-20):
Hillary Clinton 48%
Barack Obama 42%

Insider Advantage (Apr. 20):
Hillary Clinton 49%
Barack Obama 39%

Strategic Vision (Apr. 18-20):
Hillary Clinton 48%
Barack Obama 42%

Survey USA (Apr. 18-20):
Hillary Clinton 50%
Barack Obama 44%

PPP (Apr. 19-20)
(Junk Poll)

April 22, 2008 Live-blogging Updates:

Pennsylvania exit poll data (Democrat):

(Updated throughout the day)

Update: Latest information trending slightly in Clinton’s direction, not withstanding the bogus PPP poll, which is a biased Democrat poll with unknown intentions. Hillary appears to be coming on strong on election day.

Update *** – 7:53 AM – MDefl

My source just confirmed their belief that HRC will win today by 7 to 9 points. He believes that the new voter registration issue is being over played in Obama’s favor. They claim to have signed up many new voters although I am not certain if I believe him on this point. Here is a good article from KYW News Radio explaining why PPP’s polling was so favorable towards Obama.

KYW Article

Published exit poll data.

Pennsylvania Primary Results (Mississippi):

*** Update ***

Geraghty reports that blue collars are going for Obama 2-1 and Philly is going 3-1 for Obama. Also, early exit polls shows Obama up 52-47. This is still early and probably reflective of Philly, so things will probably change.

*** Update *** – MDefl

For those of you who are Democrats, Geraghty is Jim Geraghty who works as a columnist for National Review. I am beginning to think that the commentor four may be onto something. The traffic in the ex-burbs is not as high as the Clinton camp was hoping. Since this is a closed primary, Republicans cannot just show up and vote for Hillary. My advice is that with less than 40 minutes until polls close, trust no one. Something very odd is going on with this election. Also, I remember the 04 election when all the networks called it for Kerry at 8 PM. The initial results (and exit polls) had Kerry ahead by 15 to 18 points. As the night wore on, the gap lessened. Kerry eventually won by 3 points. It will be interesting to see if that holds true tonight with Obama taking an early lead with the Philly vote and Clinton cutting into the lead or surpassing Obama as the night goes along.

Philadelphia and the surrounding burbs will decide this election. I had a long post on that topic about 6 weeks ago. I just have a funny feeling that this is going to be a very interesting night.