With just ONE DAY left before the 2016 Elections, the polls across America are tightening making this vote too close to call in many states. One thing we do know is that even though Hillary Clinton is a shoe-in to win Washington State, one member of the Electoral College there is refusing to vote for her. He probably won′t be voting for Donald Trump, but this is just one more item of proof that 2016 is the craziest election season seen in ages! Whites and Hispanics are over-performing while Black voters are under-performing in states with early voting. Some states, like good, old Michigan, may be in play for the first time since Reagan ran. Best I can predict is that this will either be a very long night, perhaps two or more, or we are in for a wild, shocker of a finish.
I have been saying all along that the three, most likely outcomes are either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump winning by a hotly contested nose, or a massive Trump landslide. I just do not see a Hillary landslide in the cards. Nobody likes her! There are very few voters who are truly ′pro-Hillary′. Most of her support are mainly those who hate Trump or are scared of him. On the other hand, Donald Trump has a massive following of die-hard, committed supporters. Ever since he started his campaign on June 16, 2015, he has been consistently drawing giant crowds to his rallies. Trump has become a political rock star!
Trump rallies are high-energy affairs, often with great moments of tender love. Such was the case on Saturday when Trump invited the parents of Hugh ′Riley′ Rone to appear on stage. Riley was a 19 year-old Super-Trump supporter who died while riding his motorcycle in New Jersey during the Memorial Day weekend. Riley′s mother made a tearful appeal on behalf of her son for people to vote for Donald Trump. I have never seen anything like this before while watching politics since 1964.
Yes, there has been plenty fo crazy stuff happening during Trump rallies, too, like protesters and paid-for rioters. As we learned from the Project Veritas videos, the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC were shelling out $1,500 a head for rent-a-rioters to cause trouble at Trump rallies. Even paying homeless people to walk around outside the rallies wearing duck costumes.
According to the latest polls, as well as early voting data, key swing states like Florida, North Carolina and Nevada appear to be in play. The latest Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map shows some 14 states as ′Toss-Ups′! Trump seems to be doing well in states like Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire, all of which Barack Obama won both in 2008 and 2012. Nevada may be breaking in favor of Hillary thanks to massive ′get-out-the-vote′ campaigns for Hispanics. Things have gotten so tight in Michigan that both campaigns are making last day stops here. Pennsylvania is still very ′iffy′ but will probably go for Hillary, especially now that the transit strike is resolved in Philadelphia.
But, in some large urban areas, the Black vote is down some 15% to 20%. Absentee ballots for Detroit are at an all-time low for a presidential election. The numbers are so bad in North Carolina that Trump may have that ′must-win′ state locked up. If Black turn out is low in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania may shift from being ′Fool′s Gold′ to the ′Mother Lode′ for Trump! If he wins both Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with Colorado and Iowa, Trump may not need Florida or Nevada to win the White House.
The big question is just how big is the Trump Wave? Will there be enough to squeak out a victory? Or will it turn out to be a dud? The real worry for Democrats is what happens if the Trump Wave turns out to become a tsunami! If that happens, then we could see several, Blue ′firewall′ states flipping. If Donald Trump wins both Pennsylvania and Michigan, then there is a high likelihood of him taking Wisconsin and Minnesota, too!
I do not know what to say, your guess is as good as mine. With such an unconventional candidate as Donald Trump, and such an awful candidate as Hillary Clinton, we are in political ′Terra Incognita′. The map has one big gray blotch with a bold question mark on it. One way or the other, we will be witnessing history tomorrow night.
For more news and views, follow Andrew Zarowny on Facebook, or on Twitter @mrcapitalist.