Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan (R-WI) announced yesterday that he has no interest in being the 2016 GOP presidential nominee. He declared, ″Count me out″, saying that he will no seek the job and would refuse it if offered. Ryan added that the eventual Republican presidential nominee should be from the pool of those candidates who did run for the job. Now, Ryan said much the same last year when John Boehner resigned as Speaker of the House. After several days of speculation, Paul Ryan changed his mind and accepted the title from his peers. So, is Paul Ryan truly out of the contention should the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this July turn into a wide-open free-for-all? Or, is there still some chance that Ryan will once again change his mind? If Ryan does stay out of the presidential race, who benefits the most from his decision?
Let us examine that last question, first. Okay, so Paul Ryan tells everyone that don′t look to him to be some shining knight on a white charger galloping to rescue the GOP. That, instead, they should focus their attention on those who actually tried to win the nomination. Some may think that this could open the door for Ted Cruz to get the nomination. Most ′experts′ believe that Cruz is in the best position to win on a second or third ballot should Donald Trump come up short on the first one. Cruz has been working the state delegate conventions heavily, getting his supporters lined up, many of whom are committed by the rules to vote for Trump on the first ballot, or even on the second or third. But, by the fourth ballot, its pretty much anyone′s game.
That is a real concern, even for Ted Cruz! Let us say, just for speculation, that the GOP delegates cast three ballots and none of the remaining three candidates win. Then we do enter that ′Twilight Zone′ where guys like Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker and maybe even Mitt Romney can start working the floor. That fourth ballot will be a wild one! Anything can happen. One thing that we can be assured of is that whoever gets the nomination at after this point will be someone with the full blessing of the party elites. Ted Cruz will not be that guy! Glenn Beck may think Cruz is the new Moses, but most in the RNC do not.
Here′s an interesting thought…, perhaps the decision by Paul Ryan yesterday actually helps Donald Trump! Timing is everything! While Trump has been complaining about a ′rigged system′ the past few days, he′s actually benefited from it. Mind you, that was not the original intent. The whole primary schedule was heavily front-loaded to help Scott Walker, Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio win the nomination as early as possible. Walker probably would have won Iowa and then face a strong challenge by Bush and Rubio in New Hampshire. The final showdown would have been in South Carolina. The winner of the Palmetto State would then march through the Deep South, then conquer Florida. By that time, the race would be over with Jeb Bush the most likely winner. Walker or some other candidate who had done well would have been in line to be Vice President.
But, Donald Trump foiled the ambitions of the other candidates. True, Trump has made some serious mistakes as a candidate. Not realizing that the delegate count is more important than actual voting being high on the list. The lack of a ground game, of an organization, is hurting Trump. But, he has been making moves to correct this error. Two days ago, Trump began dropping names of possible vice presidential picks. Is there a connection between Trump naming Establishment guys like Walker, Kasich and Rubio and Ryan′s declaration yesterday?
With Trump now starting to build a ′real′ campaign organization, after several meetings with party officials the past couple of weeks, we may be seeing the beginning of the ′Fifth Stage of Trump′. Acceptance! Somebody high up in the GOP must realize that a brutal floor fight at the convention would make the debates look like a picnic. With everyone who has a video option on their smart phones, cutting backroom deals with job offers, cash or luxury vacations will only make the Republican Party look even worse than it does now. Details will leak out and go viral on You-Tube.
If this ugly side of politics is exposed too much, riots in Cleveland will be the least of the worries by The Establishment. We could be on the brink of outright revolution given the mood in the country these days. The minimal risk is that the GOP brand will be so damaged that one or two new political parties emerge in the next election cycles, displacing the Republican Party, if not the Democrats, too! Then there is the ′Doomsday′ scenario where the whole system is tossed in the trash. While I know many people might like to see that happen, just how ready are you for such an event, especially if things spin totally out of control? We could be looking at an ″Into The Badlands″ situation where we have chaos and anarchy for a generation or three.
I like to think that there are still a few wise heads out there with a hand on the wheel. How ever distasteful having Donald Trump as a nominee may be, it is far better than Armageddon. Th Bilderbergers and the rest won′t mind Hillary Clinton getting elected, and they can always rig the general election to ensure that outcome. The odds are, with Trump leading in the polls in the next series of primaries, that he will finish very close to the magic number of 1237, if not actually achieving it. If Donald Trump can use his deal-making skills and get one or more other candidates to throw him their delegates, he could win on the first few ballots in Cleveland. The System, however flawed or rigged, will have shown itself to work and relieve any grumblings across the nation.
By Paul Ryan telling everyone to ″count me out″, he may be signaling that its time to resign from emotions and accept Donald Trump as the 2016 GOP nominee. That all of the hysteria about what Trump may do needs to be discarded and accept the will of the people. Even in Wisconsin, the exit polling data showed that over 50% of Republican voters were anti-Establishment. In earlier states, that number was pushing 90%. This simply was not the election cycle for a guy like Jeb Bush to do well. The National Review, The Weekly Standard and the rest of the schmucks must inevitably recognize that reality.