Despite all the opinions of experts on cable news, Ted Cruz got no momentum after winning in Wisconsin. The game has not changed one bit, with Cruz you loose! With the New York primary on April 19, the presidential campaigns have arrived in the Empire State. Last night, Donald Trump was on Long Island speaking before a crowd of some 10,000 to 15,000 cheering fans in Bethgate. Earlier in the day, Ted Cruz got less than 100 people to hear him at a restaurant in the Bronx. One who did show up was an actual protester who was dragged away calling Cruz a racist! Ouch! This morning, the cable news experts are now singing a different tune, wondering when Ted Cruz will throw in the towel and forget about New York?
Probably not a good idea to show up in the Bronx and yammer about ″New York values″. But that is exactly what Ted Cruz did, incurring the wrath of the Big Apple and receiving the ′Bronx cheer′. The latest poll shows Trump well out in front with 52% followed by John Kasich with 25%. Ted Cruz is in last place with just 17%. Under the rules, candidates whom do not meet the threshold of 20% get ZERO delegates. Trump could possibly win all 95 delegates from New York, though most likely get between 80-90. Kasich has a shot to pick up some, which doesn′t matter since he is already technically out of the race. Cruz needs to win at least 82% of all remaining delegates. Getting skunked in New York will change that dynamic to over 90%.
Donald J Trump is definitely on friendly soil for a change. With the exceptions of Florida and Nevada, Trump has had little, direct connection with the states he has battled in before. Yet, he still managed to win some 20 of these contests in such places. Trump even made some good showings in a few states and territories he lost in. A big win in New York changes his dynamics from needing about 58% of remaining delegates to around 50%. So much for Wisconsin being ′all important′ and a game changer.
After the New York primary, things stay good for Donald Trump with most of the remaining contests in places where he can do very well in. Nate Silver calculates that Trump has a 93% chance of being the 2016 GOP presidential nominee. Ted Cruz is at 56%. After New York, those numbers will change. Trump′s will go up and Cruz′s will go down. By the end of April, Cruz will join John Kasich in the Pointless Canoe. Both will have no chance at winning the nomination before the GOP convention this summer.
Will there be anarchy in Cleveland? Hopefully, wiser heads will prevail. One such scenario would be pairing Trump with Kasich, especially if Trump only needs a few delegates to win. For the most part, Kasich and Trump have been generally cordial to each other. Politically, it would be a good move, nearly guaranteeing a Republican Party win in Ohio for the general election. Trump has not attacked Kasich on a personal level, as he has with Lyin′ Ted Cruz, ′Little′ Marco Rubio or ′low-energy′ Jeb Bush. Some may see a Trump-Kasich ticket as a sellout for Trump. Chris Christie might be upset, but he′ll probably wind up as Attorney General anyway, a job that would fit his talents better. I think we can forget about Ted Cruz having any position in a Trump administration at this point. Like Rubio, Cruz may have no political future after this election cycle. There are several swords hanging over Ted′s head waiting to deal a political ′death blow′.