The big day is finally here! The Election 2016 SEC Super Tuesday primaries take place today. For the Republican Party presidential race, 11 states will hold primaries and one a caucus. Democrats will vote in one additional state. There are 595 GOP delegates up for grabs while the Democratic Party has 1,032 delegates for the taking, including those voting overseas. Donald J Trump is expected to win the majority of Republican Party delegates as will Hillary Clinton for the Democrats. Little Marco ′No-Show′ Rubio may be facing a very bad night as election results come in. Ted ′The Liar′ Cruz may fair better depending how he does in his ′home′ state of Texas, as well as in neighboring states like Arkansas and Oklahoma. Most polls show Cruz leading in Texas while Trump leads nearly everywhere else. Bernie Sanders may not win any states other than his home state of Vermont according to the latest polling data.
Donald Trump leads in the current GOP delegate count with 87 delegates won. Cruz and Rubio are in the mid-teens with John Kasich and Ben Carson in single digits. Hillary Clinton has a slight edge over Bernie Sanders with ′allocated′ delegates based on voting. But Hillary has a HUGE lead with DNC Super-Delegates, over 400 while ′The Bern′ has just 21. Unlike the Republican primary system, which has many winner-take-all states coming up starting on March 15, all of the Democratic Party primaries and caucuses are proportional. Due to the Super-Delegates, Bernie Sanders would have to win his states by significant margins to overcome the advantage by Hillary Clinton.
The same can be said for Cruz, Rubio and Kasich, and I suppose Carson, too, should Trump win more than 300 of the 595 delegates tonight. Donald Trump would be well out in front, and as he is expected to win nearly all of the remaining contests scheduled in March based on polls, even if the GOP candidate field is narrowed to a one-on-one match up against Trump, the contender would have to win by margins of 60% or higher to make a fight of it before the convention in Cleveland. Should Trump win tonight with HUGE numbers, winning over 400 delegates today, we would then enter the realm of mathematical improbability for the rest of the GOP pack.
They do not call it Super Tuesday for nothing! A great deal will be decided this evening for the election cycle of 2016. If Ted Cruz cannot pull off enough lies and dirty tricks today, he may be out of the GOP race for the White House. Failing to win any states, even Texas, would finish his campaign. If he does win Texas, which seems likely, and maybe does well in a couple other states, Cruz may linger on for a while. Little Marco Rubio faces an even steeper slope to overcome. His ′home′ state of Florida does not holds its primary until March 15. If Rubio cannot average 20% of the delegate pool in today′s elections, his options narrow rapidly. Donald J Trump will have far too many delegates for Rubio to match, even if other candidates drop out and throw their support to Senator ′No-Show′. He will have to decide whether or not to risk any future political run after Trump defeats him in Florida, where polls show Donald well out in front.
John Kasich probably has the least to worry about tonight, since he can run a shoestring candidacy indefinitely. He certainly will not drop out before his home state of Ohio votes on March 15. If Kasich fairs well in the Michigan primary on March 8, he may be able to claim the title as the best hope for the GOP Establishment to stop Trump. Ben Carson seems committed to fighting on a bit longer. He is claiming that Republican Insiders are offering him money to drop out. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton is the big dog, much like Donald Trump. Despite all of the enthusiasm Bernie Sanders seems to have, election day for 2016 Super Tuesday will probably not go very well for ′The Bern′. All Bernie can hope for is for the FBI to recommend that the Justice Department indicts Hillary Rodham Clinton on the email scandal. We may not know how that will play out for several months?