Is this the beginning of the end for the Cruz campaign? Ted Cruz communication director, Rick Tyler, resigned yesterday after the airing of a video clip which shows Marco Rubio commenting to a Cruz staffer, sitting next to Ted′s father, about the Holy Bible. Now, what Rubio said was not bad, though some think Rubio was mocking the Bible. ″Got a good book there.″ ″All the answer are in there.″ ″Especially in that one.″ How do those comments qualify as mocking? Only through the twisted prism of the Ted Cruz campaign, that′s how! Haven′t you heard? Ted Cruz has a monopoly on the Bible and Christianity. Glenn Beck thinks so! This is why Ted Cruz cannot be trusted. His whole campaign is demented and full of hateful, spiteful rogues, like Rick Tyler. This is just the latest example of the many lies, cheats and dirty tricks which is the hallmark of Ted Cruz and his campaign.
Today is the Nevada Republican caucus. For this high-level resignation to come just a day before the caucus is bad news for Ted Cruz. Mind you, it will not help Marco Rubio very much, as Donald Trump has a huge lead in the polls. The most recent poll shows Trump with a 25-point lead over Rubio and Cruz, both of whom are in the mid-teens. Jeb Bush, who dropped out after Saturday′s South Carolina primary, only scored 1% in the latest Nevada poll, so his withdraw will have little impact on the outcome.
So why is the Cruz campaign playing such dirty tricks against Marco Rubio? The math seems to support the notion that if they can whittle the field of GOP candidates down to just one person versus Donald Trump, the Trump campaign will be stopped once and for all. But this notion is silly! There is no reason why either Cruz or Rubio would exit the race before March 15th. After that, about 50% of all delegates would have been decided on with the odds favoring Trump to win the vast majority of them. Even if the presidential race did boil down to a ′two-man′ race after March 15, Trump could coast his way to the nomination as it will be mathematically impossible for anyone else to catch him.
The next seven days will be crucial. After today′s Nevada caucus, we have another GOP debate, this time held by CNN in Texas on Thursday. Next week Tuesday will be the March 1st, SEC Super Tuesday primary, with 11 state primaries and 1 caucus in Wyoming. Texas and Georgia will be the big prizes, but most of the other states will still provide plenty of delegates. About 25% of the whole bunch will be decided. Trump leads in nearly all of them by 10-points or more. Even in Texas, the home state of Ted Cruz, Trump scores well enough to most likely win 2nd place and get a large block of its 155 delegates. There are then a number of primaries involving one to three states at a crack leading up to March 15th when we have Florida, Illinois and Ohio, which are ′winner-take-all′ states, along with Missouri and North Carolina which are proportional. Trump is leading in all of them, including Florida, Rubio′s home state.
Rubio and Cruz must try to knock each other out in the next week for either one of them to even have half a chance at preventing Trump from winning the GOP nomination. If Ted Cruz manages to win Texas, even by 1 vote over Trump, he′s going to stay in for a while longer. He has money, he has backers, he has some delegates. Cruz is also the only candidate other than Trump who has won a caucus. Rubio certainly is not going to exit before Florida. The hope, if it any actually exits for the anti-Trump crowd, is for this latest piece of trickery to cause Cruz to lose big in Nevada. He′s going to lose big anyway to Trump, but if Ted Cruz finishes in last place with under 5%, then maybe he′ll figure out that he is just too tainted to run a national campaign. But I suspect that his ego will prevent him from thinking that, as he started out too tainted in the first place.