An initial glance shows that the 2016 Iowa Caucus results ′appear′ to have Ted Cruz and Hillary Rodham Clinton as the ′declared winners′. However, just as in 2012, there are issues. So many new, first time voters participated that a definitive result may not be available for days, perhaps weeks. If you watched the tally on TV, you may have seen results that were derived with ″99%″ of the Republican caucus counted. But, that ′99%′ is based on an expected turnout of some 155,000 for the GOP. A new high for the records as it shattered the 2012 GOP turnout at about 122,000 voters. So far, the estimates are that about 180,000 people voted in the Republican caucus with still more to come. Over on the Democratic Party side, they are not even telling us the raw vote numbers! Instead, they only give us the ′Iowa State Convention Delegate Equivalent′. The DNC is so convoluted that CNN claims that Iowa has 44 state delegates for the national convention, along with 6 super-delegates, while MSNBC says Iowa has 42 ′normal′ delegates and 8 super-delegates. Don′t ask me what Fox News says, I stopped watching them last week!
Okay, so I ′appear′ to be wrong that Donald Trump would win Iowa by 10 percentage points. There was a formula that predicted Cruz would win by 3-4 points if the turnout was around 150,000. All of the metrics and data-mining used by the Cruz campaign was based on the number. The same formula predicted a Trump victory by 3-4 points if the turnout was over 175,000. If the turnout was over 200,000, then Trump wins by 10 points. So, while I admit that it looks like Donald left Iowa as the second place runner up, it is entirely possible that once the final count is completed, just as in 2012, we may have a different winner. Even Marco Rubio may have a shot at first place.
Lies! One reason Ted Cruz may have won is because of a last minute dirty trick, spreading the lie at caucus sites that Dr. Ben Carson had dropped out of the presidential race. As if his earlier ′voting violations′ dirty trick were not enough, along with ads telling lies about Trump and Rubio. Most of the gains Cruz made in Iowa during the last two months were due to the Carson campaign being buried in weirdness. Pyramid granaries, hammers for mom and magic belt buckles. Cruz escaped early attacks by The Media and others as Carson and Trump took the slings and arrows. Now that Ted Cruz can be perceived as the new front runner, with 8 GOP delegates compared to Trump and Rubio′s 7 each, the focus will shift a bit towards Cruz. Particularly in the next GOP debate this Saturday evening on ABC, the first nationally broadcasted one for the year.
Rubio got a good bounce out of Iowa with his strong finish. But that bounce may land him into the frying pan as Kasich, Christie and Job-Exclamation-Point attack Rubio to prevent him from becoming the chosen Establishment candidate. Rubio, along with Trump and Cruz, all outperformed Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum from 2012. The good news for Donald J Trump is that he did as well as he ′appears′ to have while spending only about $4 Million dollars, entering the race very late, and having only a modest, 15-person staff in Iowa. Cruz had a small army of 12,000 volunteers with precinct captains in all 1,892 caucus sites. He also outspent everyone else, about $25 Million! Jeb-Exclamation-Point spent the second most at $15 Million dollars for his 5,235 votes, earning only 2% and 1 measly convention delegate.
Unlike Trump, most of the other candidates, namely Cruz and Rubio, had spent nearly three years campaigning in Iowa. Pretty much starting a day or three after Mitt Romney lost to Obama the next race was started. Trump campaigned for barely one-fourth of the time and spent little running few ads. About half of all of his campaigning in Iowa happened just in the past week. During his gracious concession speech, Trump mentioned that many advised him not to even bother with Iowa, as it is a very unique electorate, ideally suited for Cuckservatives. So I′ll give The Donald a ′job well done′ and see how this impacts next week′s New Hampshire primary, where he currently leads by a wide margin. The word is that Mike Huckabee, who dropped out last night, may be endorsing Trump. I′m not going to hold my breath.
Feeling ′The Bern′, Hillary? She should! Bernie Sanders smoked her! Currently, and once again, all of the votes have not been counted, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by only one-half of one percent. Or does she? At six precincts, the vote was an even tie and was decided by coin tosses. Hillary wound up winning all 6, the odds of which are 1:64 against her. Lucky! Up until about a month ago, she led in Iowa by nearly 30-points and seemed unstoppable. Once again, voter turnout was much higher than expected, favoring Bernie. Not to mention the fact that Iowa is as weird a state for Democrats as it is for Republicans. Half of registered Democrats proudly identify themselves as Socialists! The other half, Hillary′s ′over-45′ crowd, just pretend not to be Socialists.
So those are the results of the 2016 Iowa Caucus as they currently ′appear′ to be. No word on if Ben Carson will take any direct action against Ted Cruz or if Donald Trump will demand a recount. Why bother now, the actual count still hasn′t been completed and verified. It may not be for days, or weeks on the Republican side. In 2012, it took two weeks to verify and that had significantly fewer voters. For the Democrats, there are already noises that Bernie Sanders will demand a recount. Again, all of the Democratic Party votes have yet to be counted and verified. If Sanders wants a recount, it could be quite a while before we really know what happened. He is demanding that the raw numbers be made public. Good Luck with that one, Bernie!