Here is a nice way to start the off the week. Especially with the 2016 Iowa Caucus now just 21 days away! The latest Gallup poll shows that people identifying themselves as Democrats has hit an all-time low of just 29%. In 1988, the number had been 33%, rising to a high of 36% in 2008. Democrats still have an advantage over Republicans, whom are currently at 26%, just one point above their all-time low in 2013. In 1988, the GOP was at 31% and peeked at 33% in 2004. In fact, in 2004, it was a three-way tie between Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Speaking of which, Independents are current at 42% in the new Gallup poll. For context, they were at 36% in 1988 and peaked in 2014 at 43%. So who benefits the most from this assessment of voter preference?
If several other polls hold up as true, then Hillary Clinton has the most to worry about. She is basically in a statistical tie with Bernie Sanders in both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, which follows Iowa in 29 days from now. If she loses both, then this could cause several other well-known Democrats to become candidates. Joe Biden gave an interview last week and said he often regrets his decision not to run for the White House. Jerry Brown has mentioned his interest and the rumor mill is loaded with John Kerry stories. Andrew Coumo is also a potential contender and there are still plenty of supporters who want Elizabeth Warren to run for president.
Donald Trump stands to benefit the most from the current voter sentiment. In one new poll from late last week, some 20% of Democrats say they will vote for Trump while only 14% of Republican Cuckservatives vow to vote Democratic should Trump be the 2016 GOP presidential nominee. This is good news for Trump as 20% of 29% is much better than 14% of 26%. Even if those percentages are double what may happen in reality, the numbers are still good enough to throw Donald J Trump plenty of votes to ensure his election.
Add to that another new poll which shows that among likely GOP primary voters, while 56% of the average voter is committed to their current candidate, 79% of those backing Trump are fully committed to his victory. He is already looking unbeatable in every primary and caucus other than Iowa, where he is essentially tied with Ted Cruz. If Trump winds up winning in Iowa, he will run the table and sweep the whole GOP field. Either way, he literally has the nomination already in his pocket.
So the latest Gallup poll shows the Democrats in big trouble. Now it is true that while the numbers show Democrats at an all-time low, the same percentage of Independent voters who generally lean towards one party are equal at 16% for both Democrats and Republicans. This leaves some 10% of the overall electorate deciding the 2016 election. However, nearly every poll shows Independents leaning towards Trump over Hillary by a ratio of 3-to-2. Perhaps even more important is that among White women, the Number One Issue is currently security and safety from crime and terrorists. An issue that favors Donald J Trump much more so than Hillary Rodham Clinton, especially on the matter of gun rights. The fastest growing segment of gun owners are women of all races. Like I said, this new Gallup poll starts off the week in a happy way for folks like us!