With just 45 days until the Iowa Caucus, Donald J. Trump is still way out in front in nearly every poll. Nationwide and in practically every state poll, Trump is up by about 20 points over his nearest competition. In Iowa, the latest CBS-YouGov poll has Ted Cruz ahead, but the margin of error actually makes it a statistical tie. Another interesting development was reported by Andrew McGill of ″The Atlantic″. He claims that we may be seeing a version of the ′Bradley Effect′ in the polls. According to McGill, if you look at the so-called ′unscientific′, on-line polls, Trump is well out in front with numbers much higher than those of the various ′live′ polls done over the telephone. McGill points out that the numbers for the other candidates remain consistent in both live and on-line polls. Also known as the ″Mode Effect″, the on-line polls indicates that support for Trump is much wider, including better results from ′educated′ voters with college degrees. So are many people embarrassed to admit to liking Donald Trump to a live pollster?
McGill points to a new poll done by the firm Morning Consultant, where they tested the waters by splitting their pool of potential voters into three groups, an on-line website, automated phone and a live phone survey. The results showed that Trump did 6 points better, 38% to 32% on-line. Among college-educated voters, the gap was 9%. We′ve seen this before, where people are more apt to be honest with machines than with other people. A British study done back in the early 1980s showed that patients were more apt to confess unhealthy activities to a robot-doctor than to a human one. The idea that people are inclined to be dishonest with other people in an effort to paint themselves in a better light.
The anecdotal evidence is out there that supports this circumstance. Donald Trump has stirred the American political scene up considerably, and his support indeed has a wide and varied base. We all have met or know of people who normally would be supporting some other candidate, if any at all, but this year are quite excited about Trump. They tend to be fed up with ′politics-as-usual′ and see Trump as a man of action who will provide genuine change for the better. Even if they know that many of Trump′s promises and positions will never ever be fulfilled, they still like his pander-free candor. After 7 years of Barack Obama, folks are just plain tired of being lied to! Not that Obama has a monopoly on political lies, but he has taken it to a whole, new level.
People are also tired of lame-brains. Take the comment by Jeb Bush over this weekend when he spoke before a ′huge′ audience of a couple dozen people in New Hampshire. Bush called Trump a ″jerk″. WOW!!! Them be ′fightin′ words′. LOL! Talk about who is a jerk, who picked out that awful sweater Jeb was wearing? The whole scene had the imagery of a stegosaurus being lashed with a wet noodle! Bush is barely a mosquito at this point. Nearly every poll has him down in the 3% to 2% range and still falling. Move over Claude Raines, we have a new Invisible Man!
Even Barack Obama is now getting into the game, trying to play the race card on Donald Trump. Nothing else is working and neither will this tactic. Obama is accusing Trump of playing on ″working-class fears″. No kidding, and guess who caused those fears? Obama!!! Thanks to Obama′s agenda of transformation, the rise of global discontent and the general stagnation in our economy, people are afraid of the future. Donald Trump comes along and says he is afraid, too, but he has the moxie to turn our predicament around. Trump wants to ″Make America Great Again″, and who could be against that? Obama, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, apparently are.
So with just 45 days until the Iowa Caucus, Donald J. Trump is still leading in nearly every poll, live or otherwise. While it would be great for Trump to win in Iowa, and he just may, all he really needs to do is place second there and go on to win in New Hampshire. After that, pretty much every state is already practically in Trump′s pocket. Even the home states of other candidates, like Florida, Ohio and New Jersey. By mid-March, the only person left opposing Trump will probably be Rick Santorum. Marco Rubio may actually have to go back to the Senate and cast a vote or two in order to secure a cushy job with Goldman Sachs or somebody. Donald Trump is on a roll and looks unstoppable at this point. Another remarkable achievement by a truly remarkable man, and don′t think that the public hasn′t noticed! Vladimir Putin certainly has!